Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Chacor]

597
UZNT13 KNHC 121501
XXAA 62157 99291 70935 08293 99014 24400 22522 00121 23400 22024
92802 21000 18511 85533 17800 10016 70169 08430 15022 88999 77999
31313 09608 81448
61616 AF303 01HHA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2912N09354W 1452 MBL WND 21023 AEV 00000 DLM WND 16015
014708 WL150 22023 075 =
XXBB 62158 99291 70935 08293 00014 24400 11850 17800 22821 16400
33807 14000 44786 15000 55775 11801 66755 11634 77708 09631 88698
08030
21212 00014 22522 11960 20024 22947 20512 33936 18518 44917 18007
55908 17506 66898 13010 77894 13511 88887 12519 99868 09518 11850
10016 22847 09514 33841 13018 44834 12015 55818 14022 66791 14525
77783 16522 88769 14020 99712 16521 11698 14522
31313 09608 81448
61616 AF303 01HHA INVEST OB 04
62626 SPL 2912N09354W 1452 MBL WND 21023 AEV 00000 DLM WND 16015
014708 WL150 22023 075 =

[Kludge]

Based on radar alone (in a hurry here) it looks like the center has actually drifted south a tad over the last couple of hours. This just might spend another 24+ hours over water. Hopefully not, but for now it's not going anywhere fast.

J -
When you posted this back at 8:06, I didn't really see the south movement...but now it does seem to have a discernable movement AWAY from the coast, maybe 110* or thereabouts. I'm concerned about the time over water, and the extra room to grow without land intervention.

[opera ghost]

Wxman57 does not seem too concerned about 90L...he thinks it should just be major rain maker.
Usually tropical systems do not rapidly intensify when too close to an approaching trough due to some strong upper level shear...
If 90L was sitting under a ridge, then it would have a much better chance to rapidly intensify.

Charley '04 rapdily intensified in front of an approaching trough

It didn't start organizing less than 100 miles off landfall though. Despite the abnormal performance of Felix in ramping up from named to cat 5 in 48 hours, such things are not the normal course.

This won't likely make it to hurricane status- although it could be anything from a weak TS to a strong TS. Not enough time and the conditions, while favorable, aren't the kind of perfect necessary for RI =)

I'm relieved, a hurricane blowing on shore with less than 48 hours notice in teh Houston area would be a major fiasco. as it is the forcasted rain is going to be nasty enough.

[Steve]

>>This is NOT an ALLISON situation with 20+ inches of rain. THere is a front that will be in the area that will help move it along.

Agreed, but read the Discussion from 11am. They allude to what I saw in the models and posted earlier. The system could become detached from the westerlies and represent a threat to the gulf for a few days. Again, I'm thinking the top will shear off and head NE with the lowlevel moisture sitting back or heading off SW as tropical moisture. Hard to say what the highest rainfall totals will be over the 3-5 day period, but I'd agree that 20" seems a little extreme.

Steve

[DrewFL]

MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO IN THE SHORT
TERM...ALTHOUGH WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE AFTER
DAY 2 IS LESS CLEAR. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS DETACH THE SYSTEM
FROM THE WESTERLIES AND LINGER IT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHERE IT
COULD REPRESENT A PROLONGED RAINFALL THREAT.

[jasons2k]

It sure is awfully close to shore. I guess that south jog I "saw" this morning was an illusion:

[mattpetre]

Just a quick map I've drawn up based on memory of where 90L originated and traveled over the past 6 or 7 days... for those that may not have followed it as closely.

[opera ghost]

And so the wobble watch begins.

We've got the whole day to track this thing's slow meandering progress before it washes up on shore. ^_^

[BigA]

Radar looks like an ever so slow northward drift to me, maybe a hint of eastward motion.

As an aside, what would happen if the NHC decided that both systems merited upgrade to TS status in the same advisory? Would they assign the H name to the one closer to land, or would they use the old "flip a coin" method?

[drezee]

Why did recon turn around?

[jasons2k]

Updated image with NHC plots. They seem to think it will eventually get moving N/NE, at least in the "official" forecast:

[Chacor]

798
URNT15 KNHC 121511
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 09 20070912
150030 2850N 09418W 7822 02245 0149 +125 +110 144025 026 017 010 00
150100 2850N 09420W 7862 02202 0145 +129 +115 151027 028 002 011 03
150130 2849N 09422W 7673 02402 0137 +121 +115 148027 028 999 999 03
150200 2849N 09423W 7607 02471 0138 +113 +113 139026 027 999 999 03
150230 2851N 09424W 7503 02591 9990 +101 +999 131025 026 999 999 05
150300 2852N 09423W 7366 02743 9990 +097 +999 132024 025 000 011 05
150330 2853N 09422W 7252 02876 9990 +093 +999 137027 028 000 010 01
150400 2854N 09420W 7134 03013 9990 +086 +999 142029 029 000 010 05
150430 2855N 09418W 6978 03198 0134 +078 +078 146028 029 000 010 01
150500 2855N 09417W 6943 03241 0135 +072 +072 148026 026 000 010 01
150530 2856N 09415W 6828 03383 9990 +066 +999 148024 025 000 010 05
150600 2857N 09413W 6658 03593 0132 +062 +062 149024 024 030 030 05
150630 2857N 09411W 6462 03850 0133 +052 +052 140027 029 999 999 05
150700 2858N 09410W 6369 03962 9990 +041 +999 141028 029 008 012 05
150730 2858N 09408W 6269 04096 9990 +031 +999 136029 029 012 011 05
150800 2859N 09406W 6217 04158 9990 +029 +999 142026 028 005 010 01
150830 2859N 09404W 6199 04178 9990 +029 +999 149027 029 000 010 01
150900 2900N 09402W 6195 04191 9990 +026 +999 145025 025 000 010 01
150930 2900N 09400W 6193 04189 0140 +026 +026 147024 025 000 010 01
151000 2901N 09358W 6194 04192 9990 +018 +999 156026 027 000 011 01
$$

Heading back NEwards?

[opera ghost]

Maybe they got enough information to update to TS?

Color me puzzled.

[drezee]

Wxman57 does not seem too concerned about 90L...he thinks it should just be major rain maker.
Usually tropical systems do not rapidly intensify when too close to an approaching trough due to some strong upper level shear...
If 90L was sitting under a ridge, then it would have a much better chance to rapidly intensify.

Charley '04 rapdily intensified in front of an approaching trough

It didn't start organizing less than 100 miles off landfall though. Despite the abnormal performance of Felix in ramping up from named to cat 5 in 48 hours, such things are not the normal course.

This won't likely make it to hurricane status- although it could be anything from a weak TS to a strong TS. Not enough time and the conditions, while favorable, aren't the kind of perfect necessary for RI =)

I'm relieved, a hurricane blowing on shore with less than 48 hours notice in teh Houston area would be a major fiasco. as it is the forcasted rain is going to be nasty enough.

I am not sure to why you quoted me? The point that I made is that Charley rapidly intensified.

The original quote says nothing of organizing near shore…

[MGC]

Wow, just got out of bed to this. TD#9 should intensify and become a TS this afternoon if not already. You folks over in Texas enjoy the rain. Hopefully this won't turn into an Allison type event as the depression seem to be moving NNW currently. Could expect some isolated heavy rain....MGC

[opera ghost]

Last visible is remarkably prettier than the one before, this is shaping up prettily for a TS.

[dwg71]

Updated image with NHC plots. They seem to think it will eventually get moving N/NE, at least in the "official" forecast:

I think the points will be adjusted east with "landfall" east of Galveston Isle.

[tailgater]

Radar presentation looks improved over the last 4 or 5 hours, even seems like a CDO forming but pressures aren't dropping much.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Is this just Consoldating or is it drifting East?

[Chacor]

380
URNT11 KNHC 121519
97779 15150 41291 93649 39400 15022 02029 /8023
RMK AF303 01HHA INVEST OB 05
STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING