Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Steve]

Looking at the model runs, it's as though the system is going to split with a piece (upper?) heading off NE ahead of the front with the lowlevel moisture hanging back or possibly heading off SW with the trough split at the next front. Interesting...

Steve

[Stormcenter]

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EAST OF
CAMERON TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

Wow...I must say I'm surprised that they issued it so soon.
I thought they would wait until recon was out there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Chris_in_Tampa]

For a live map of the plane location and decoded HDOBs live, you can visit this link:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... n=01&map=1

If obs start coming in under the depression header, then use this link:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... n=01&map=1

[Steve]

http://www.srh.weather.gov/lch/

Graphical of the TS Watches from NWS Lake Charles including Flash Flood Warnings in and around the Golden Triangle.

Steve



*edited by sg to add the URL tags - then the link opens in new window/tab

[Stormcenter]

Why were the warnings and watches issue so far east into LA.?

[Windsurfer_NYC]

NHC has TD 9 as a TS by this evening...

[Chacor]

421
URNT15 KNHC 121450
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 07 20070912
144030 2906N 09248W 5062 05811 0323 -057 -076 114015 022 031 014 01
144100 2905N 09251W 5063 05804 0325 -053 -057 114013 016 025 012 01
144130 2904N 09254W 5063 05810 0325 -057 -058 117012 014 019 009 00
144200 2902N 09256W 5064 05802 0324 -056 -062 119008 010 024 009 03
144230 2901N 09259W 5229 05558 0312 -044 -052 122012 013 999 999 03
144300 2901N 09302W 5405 05286 0292 -033 -048 111010 011 030 034 03
144330 2901N 09305W 5622 04974 0138 -015 -029 122010 012 999 999 03
144400 2901N 09308W 5919 04543 0133 +007 -004 141011 013 999 999 03
144430 2902N 09311W 6222 04168 0159 +030 +006 151012 012 999 999 03
144500 2902N 09314W 6510 03794 0160 +050 +023 153015 017 999 999 03
144530 2903N 09317W 6823 03408 0163 +068 +029 153022 024 999 999 03
144600 2903N 09320W 6971 03224 0160 +078 +018 157023 024 004 018 00
144630 2904N 09322W 6969 03222 0161 +075 +042 155022 023 000 010 00
144700 2905N 09325W 6971 03221 0159 +076 +038 145023 024 000 010 00
144730 2905N 09328W 6978 03212 0154 +080 +043 140022 022 000 010 00
144800 2906N 09331W 6978 03212 0154 +078 +050 145021 021 007 012 00
144830 2906N 09333W 6987 03201 0153 +079 +063 147024 028 014 013 03
144900 2906N 09335W 6970 03220 9990 +075 +999 132021 026 027 014 01
144930 2906N 09337W 6966 03220 9990 +075 +999 138015 017 031 022 05
145000 2905N 09339W 6978 03206 9990 +066 +999 142016 017 027 015 01
$$

[jhamps10]

NHC has TD 9 as a TS by this evening...

they also has TD 8 as one this evening too.
Looks like we got a race to see who gets humerto.

[Stratosphere747]

Why were the warnings and watches issue so far east into LA.?

Because it is moving towards the N.

[dwg71]

Why were the warnings and watches issue so far east into LA.?

I think "landfall" will be east of Houston, and the bulk of the rain and wind will be golden triangle to SW LA.

[mattpetre]

First I'd like to say JB deserves some credit on this one and I'll take just a tiny bit for believing what he initially predicted and sticking through it even when 90L was just a total mess a couple days back. This will be the first time this year I've been even close to being right on a storm; so I have to pat myself on the back cause it probably won't happen again soon.

[green eyed girl]

I wonder if we will see any rain from this in Southeast Louisiana.

[Johnny]

Lets keep this in perspective, maybe the worst flooding since Erin. 6-8 inches sounds about right.

In reality, this could be the worse flooding since Allison, not Erin. We've got a system that will be a very slow mover sitting over the area for a few days with a defined LLC. Not good. This looks like a typical Texas tropical system....not a whole lot of wind but a hell of alot of rain.

[xironman]

From the look of the radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=crp&loop=yes it looks like it is headed NE already. Of course at that distance it may not be the LLC.

[ronjon]

Latest 12Z NAM rides the system along the northern gulf coast all the way east to the FL panhandle in 84 hrs. This might be a very strange track for this storm due to the weak steering currents.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/12/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

[drezee]

Wxman57 does not seem too concerned about 90L...he thinks it should just be major rain maker.
Usually tropical systems do not rapidly intensify when too close to an approaching trough due to some strong upper level shear...
If 90L was sitting under a ridge, then it would have a much better chance to rapidly intensify.

Charley '04 rapdily intensified in front of an approaching trough

[jasons2k]

I'm confused on something. I thought with Erin they would not issue actual TS warnings until the system was designated a TS. I remember some of us scratching our heads wondering why there wasn't a TS warning issued and IIRC, the answer from Derek was that they won't issue a TS warning until a TS is declared.

So why the TS warning with this one when it's still a TD? Is there an official protocol for that or not?

[Chacor]

193
URNT11 KNHC 121453
97779 14484 41291 93548 30400 15022 08059 /3187
40425
RMK AF303 01HHA INVEST OB 03
STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND

848
URNT15 KNHC 121500
AF303 01HHA INVEST HDOB 08 20070912
145030 2904N 09341W 6967 03219 9990 +070 +999 121018 020 022 016 01
145100 2903N 09343W 6982 03202 9990 +060 +999 151027 029 016 014 05
145130 2902N 09344W 6971 03216 9990 +064 +999 157029 032 018 014 05
145200 2901N 09346W 6976 03210 9990 +066 +999 164027 028 017 014 01
145230 2900N 09347W 6967 03221 0141 +080 +080 157026 027 021 013 00
145300 2859N 09349W 6968 03223 9990 +080 +999 152024 025 022 015 01
145330 2858N 09350W 6975 03212 9990 +070 +999 147027 029 015 015 01
145400 2857N 09352W 6968 03219 9990 +074 +999 151030 031 005 012 01
145430 2856N 09354W 6973 03212 9990 +078 +999 149030 032 005 011 01
145500 2856N 09356W 6973 03214 9990 +082 +999 155030 032 001 010 01
145530 2855N 09358W 6973 03213 9990 +079 +999 161027 027 010 010 01
145600 2855N 09400W 6971 03214 0138 +081 +081 160028 028 006 010 00
145630 2854N 09402W 6972 03214 0139 +080 +080 157029 029 002 011 01
145700 2854N 09404W 6973 03209 9990 +079 +999 153028 028 009 012 01
145730 2853N 09406W 6969 03218 9990 +076 +999 148029 030 024 010 01
145800 2853N 09408W 6972 03215 9990 +076 +999 145030 032 006 011 01
145830 2852N 09410W 7030 03141 9990 +078 +999 137026 027 016 010 01
145900 2852N 09412W 7235 02898 9990 +088 +999 140025 026 010 010 01
145930 2851N 09414W 7425 02683 9990 +094 +999 151024 025 005 011 01
150000 2851N 09416W 7611 02471 0149 +109 +109 145024 025 021 011 00
$$

[Steve]

>>I wonder if we will see any rain from this in Southeast Louisiana.

Yeah, there will be some bands that come through SE LA. It's more of a threat from Houma westward at this time though. Eventually as the upper part of the storm rides along the front, there will be plenty of Gulf moisture tapped along the way that should bring some rain to everyone up the front. JMO of course. Let's wait and see what happens.

Steve

[dwg71]

Lets keep this in perspective, maybe the worst flooding since Erin. 6-8 inches sounds about right.

In reality, this could be the worse flooding since Allison, not Erin. We've got a system that will be a very slow mover sitting over the area for a few days with a defined LLC. Not good. This looks like a typical Texas tropical system....not a whole lot of wind but a hell of alot of rain.

NHC has it moving out with out sitting meandering. Look at Allison - http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

This is NOT an ALLISON situation with 20+ inches of rain. THere is a front that will be in the area that will help move it along.