TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Gustywind]

to Gustywind:

Sorry if I got you upset
Signed,
jaxfladude ....

Tkanks [ color=#FF0000][/color]

[HURAKAN]

Station 41041 - Middle Atlantic
14.53 N 46 W (14°30'24" N 45°59'48" W)

Continuous Winds TIME
(GMT) WDIR WSPD
0950 ENE ( 68 deg ) 17.9 kts
0940 ENE ( 70 deg ) 15.2 kts
0930 ENE ( 66 deg ) 11.8 kts
0920 ENE ( 63 deg ) 12.2 kts
0910 ENE ( 68 deg ) 13.6 kts
0900 ENE ( 68 deg ) 14.8 kts

Supplemental Measurements Highest 1 minute Wind Speed
Time (GMT) WSPD WDIR
0944 19.0 kts ENE ( 67 deg true )

This station is far from the presumed LLC of 91L and look at the wind speeds.

Latest:

[Gustywind]

The convection remains linear, though the surface feature is becoming better defined

may take until wednesday to form into a TD, but we could see some quick intensification on thursday and friday as this approaches the islands

HI Derek Ortt , interresting so at what latitude it will pass if this trend continues...near the Leewards of central windwards ?, tkanks a lot i must have to admit that your replys are quite pertinent, but for me in central Leeward it cause an eventual threat...and unhopefully for the Carib

[Nimbus]

This system definately looks like it is pulling together. It will be a named storm or I will donate 5 dollars to storm2k same bet I made with Gabrielle. The center near 11n 42w now has CDO and there is pretty good rotation.

The track forecast is less certain, as I stated a few days ago the big islands look to be in danger. The reasonng is simple we have a weaker ridge to the north and a slower westerly motion than we did with the earlier storms. Even if the storm comes into the Caribbean it will be far enough north that it puts PR on the strong side of the storm. I'm watching the deep layer bamd to see which side of PR this is going to travel.

Thanks for catching that error Luis!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system definately looks like it is pulling together. It will be a named storm or I will donate 5 dollars to storm2k same bet I made with Gabrielle. The center near 11n 42w now has CDO and there is pretty good rotation.

The track forecast is less certain, as I stated a few days ago the big islands look to be in danger. The reasonng is simple we have a weaker ridge to the north and a slower westerly motion than we did with the earlier storms. Even if the storm comes into the Caribbean it will be far enough north that it puts PR on the strong side of the storm. I'm watching the deep layer bamm to see which side of PR this is going to travel.

I agree, the system looks like a depression to me. We will see if it can keep strengthen.

[cycloneye]

This system definately looks like it is pulling together. It will be a named storm or I will donate 5 dollars to storm2k same bet I made with Gabrielle. The center near 11n 42w now has CDO and there is pretty good rotation.

The track forecast is less certain, as I stated a few days ago the big islands look to be in danger. The reasonng is simple we have a weaker ridge to the north and a slower westerly motion than we did with the earlier storms. Even if the storm comes into the Caribbean it will be far enough north that it puts PR on the strong side of the storm. I'm watching the deep layer bamm to see which side of PR this is going to travel.

The BAMM goes south of Puerto Rico but of course that changes with every run.

[Gustywind]

This system definately looks like it is pulling together. It will be a named storm or I will donate 5 dollars to storm2k same bet I made with Gabrielle. The center near 11n 42w now has CDO and there is pretty good rotation.

The track forecast is less certain, as I stated a few days ago the big islands look to be in danger. The reasonng is simple we have a weaker ridge to the north and a slower westerly motion than we did with the earlier storms. Even if the storm comes into the Caribbean it will be far enough north that it puts PR on the strong side of the storm. I'm watching the deep layer bamm to see which side of PR this is going to travel.

The BAMM goes south of Puerto Rico but of course that changes with every run.

Yeah Cycloneye hope that.....fourth runs consecutively with LBAR near Guadeloupe...and close to your island...don't like that... too close for comfort in spite of high distance and all the errors margin

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...ANALYZED 1010
MB NEAR 11N43W...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ROUGHLY WITHIN
120 NM OF THE LOW AND FURTHER E NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE
ITCZ FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT STILL COULD DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT.

$$
CANGIALOSI

[PhillyWX]

The 12Z Euro 8 to 10 day mean 500 mb heights suggests an escape route in the subtropical ridge from about Hispaniola North and Northeastward. The same 8 to 10 day mean from the GFS showed almost zonal flow across the Northeast, without an obvious escape route.




Or, in other words, the future is rather uncertain.

If it doesn't hit that weakness in the ridge the EURO has it could slam head on into Central America or the Yucatan.

[Emmett_Brown]

It looks to be steady state to me. Still look elongated NE to SW, but overall healthy with a definitely overall cyclonic spin. Big envelop, so dry air wont kill it. Moving at about the right speed for development, and shear is not a hinderance for right now. Looks like it needs another day... lots of stable air around (lots of strato cu to the N).

In my opinion, this WILL develop into a TC, just not until tomorrow. Looks like a Carribean storm to me as well... just keeps chugging W.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Blown Away]

The 12Z Euro 8 to 10 day mean 500 mb heights suggests an escape route in the subtropical ridge from about Hispaniola North and Northeastward. The same 8 to 10 day mean from the GFS showed almost zonal flow across the Northeast, without an obvious escape route.
Or, in other words, the future is rather uncertain.

If it doesn't hit that weakness in the ridge the EURO has it could slam head on into Central America or the Yucatan.

At 13mph it could reach SFL's longitude in about 7+ days. Might be to late to escape.

[Gustywind]

11/0815 UTC 10.6N 43.3W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
....based on ssd positions...

[Meso]

vis images now compared to a few hours ago,shows what seems like slow organization in the convection.Earlier it was pretty straight,but new images seem like the right hand side of the convection is trying to pulled around with the circulation,the beginning stages of convection that wraps around.May still take a good few hours or even a day or two for the convection to become more "circular" and lose the linear look.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Gustywind]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... rovap/dmsp

[Derek Ortt]

has not organized overnight

still at least 24-36 hours away from ebcoming a TD, if it develops at all. Chances of development remain in the 30-40 percent range

[DrewFL]

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic was expected to strengthen into a tropical depression, possibly as early as today, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weathe ... 7863.story

[cycloneye]

11/1145 UTC 9.7N 44.1W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Frank2]

I noticed that the Sun-Sentinel article was written early last evening (incidentially, I like Derek's comment)...