TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just staring at the IR Channel 2 floater, the low level circulation seems somewhat East/East-Southeast of the apparent center of rotation in the thunderstorms.

Looking at the CIMMS shear map, it may be just a tad too far South to be under the really light shear, and maybe the mid-level center is a little displaced by shear from the East.


Comments from people who know what they are talking about (unlike me) always welcome.

[jaxfladude]

to Gustywind:

Sorry if I got you upset
Signed,
jaxfladude ....

[Sanibel]

Wave to east has no forward movement (therefore is probably just clouds).

This still has spin. Looks like a go.

[SapphireSea]

Well my two cents on this from pure observation is very simple. The system is becoming less of a broad low and consolidating almost for sure, this is definately going to organize. It should be near TD strength before D-Max ends, and organize it's center better during the D-Min (losing some of the impressive convection). And by tommorow's D-Max which because of it's western progression it wont be till 18:00 or 19:00 EST, I will boldly say a TD by tommorow 11PM. Too early to speculate if it will rapidly intensify, but I do not see anything that would prevent rapid intensification other than it's size, which may or may not be an issue when we finaly see what structure this storm takes. As for the track. The Northerly component of the clouds over the NE carrib is likely a pocket of shear generating some good storms. Other than that, closely inspecting the current synoptics our wave shall be moving to the W around 270-280 for the next 24-48 hours. The storm's depth and changing synoptics make any prediction of the path past 76 hours into nothing but a game of roulette at the casino.

definately no central american threat this time!

This is only a hypothetical extreme and not a real forecast of any kind

Time will tell. Easterlies look pretty deep-layered, this could pick up some speed and by the time you realize it boom it hits the middle windwards and it's in the carribean. After the troughs come through and it hugs the cuba coast, you cannot discount an semi-unseasonal ridge building up and pushing it all the way into the already battered Yucatan before it sets it's eyes on N.Mex/TX border.

End of Crazy hypothetical forecast

Climo says that this should take a more northernly route as opposed to Dean and Felix.. And just because it's wobbling along at 270-280 will automatically make it more northern than Felix. There should be no 260 or 265 motions with this systems, which were evident in the tracks of Felix and Dean. Taking a stab at anything around 76 hours or beyond is most likely gonna result in a crow dinner.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The wave behind 91L (93L soon?) might compete with the system.

If a storm develops close enough behind this one, it might tend to steer this further South. I don't know if Fujiwara interactions are common in the Atlantic. I do think I recall (was it Karen and Iris, maybe) about a decade ago the bigger storm rotated in, and eventually absorbed, the smaller storm.

[MGC]

91L looks to be getting better organized this evening and could possibly become a TD as early as Tuesday. Stearing flow looks to be towards thewest so I expect 91L to continue on a W to WNW track. Currently shear does not appear to be an issue for the next few days. 91L could easily be a hurricane (if it developes) and possibly impact the northern islands....MGC

[Ed Mahmoud]

The wave behind 91L (93L soon?) might compete with the system.

If a storm develops close enough behind this one, it might tend to steer this further South. I don't know if Fujiwara interactions are common in the Atlantic. I do think I recall (was it Karen and Iris, maybe) about a decade ago the bigger storm rotated in, and eventually absorbed, the smaller storm.

The NHC web page hurricane archive is my friend...

Iris moved toward the west-southwest at about 10 knots on the 24th and 25th. The change in heading was probably a consequence of a Fujiwhara interaction between Iris and Humberto located about 750 n mi to the east--Humberto had developed from a depression on the 22nd to a 95-knot hurricane by late on the 24th.


On the 25th, Iris neared the Lesser Antilles. An upper-level cold low was centered then to the north of Puerto Rico. Westerly vertical wind shear occurred, separating deep convection from the low-level cloud center, disrupting the circulation, and slowing the general westward progress of the cyclone. Iris weakened back to tropical storm strength. Reconnaissance aircraft and radar data indicate a reformation of the center to the east of the former position while the system meandered for about a day before moving into the islands.


Steering currents ahead of a trough to the northwest then turned Iris generally toward the north-northwest on the 27th. On this track, Iris moved up the chain of Leeward Islands and strengthened as the shear decreased. Late on the 28th, Iris regained hurricane status over the south-central Atlantic.


Iris began a Fujiwhara interaction on the 30th, with Tropical Storm Karen to its southeast. The interaction swept the weaker Karen on a spiral path around, and then into, Iris where it was absorbed on September 3rd. The interaction could have contributed to Iris' erratic motion during this period (Fig. 1).

[artist]

Green eyed girl wrote:

I agree. When are they saying this should take a turn more northerly and what would steer it that way?

Cane freak wrote:

Ah....steering currents change with time...do you not see the trough over the northern plains coming down? Well, by the time this thing gets organized and forms into a TC, it will then be steered by the deeper layer in the atmosphere. Say, 200-850. If you have a trough even well to the north, a strong TC will feel this weakness (no matter the strength of the weakness) and gain at least a little latitude. Not trying to be ugly. Just trying to learn you a thing or two.

Cane freak - some of us don't know all the synoptics. Please take that into consideration when answering someone. Particularly someone that is fairly new!

Green eyed girl - this really is a great place and most of the knowledgeable ones are willing to help us out that aren't familiar with how all this works - like me! Please feel free to ask your questions and ignore the few that may not seem so kind. And welcome!

[Sanibel]

Not sure about wave to east. Appears to be pulling in inflow. Hmm.

[Derek Ortt]

The convection remains linear, though the surface feature is becoming better defined

may take until wednesday to form into a TD, but we could see some quick intensification on thursday and friday as this approaches the islands

[Ed Mahmoud]

The convection remains linear, though the surface feature is becoming better defined

may take until wednesday to form into a TD, but we could see some quick intensification on thursday and friday as this approaches the islands

Is the beta deflection (I think that is what they call the slight rightward deflection due to the slight imbalance in the Coriolis effect between the Northern and Southern side) a function of a) latitude and b) wind speed of the circulation?


Just curious.

['CaneFreak]

Green eyed girl wrote:

I agree. When are they saying this should take a turn more northerly and what would steer it that way?

Cane freak wrote:

Ah....steering currents change with time...do you not see the trough over the northern plains coming down? Well, by the time this thing gets organized and forms into a TC, it will then be steered by the deeper layer in the atmosphere. Say, 200-850. If you have a trough even well to the north, a strong TC will feel this weakness (no matter the strength of the weakness) and gain at least a little latitude. Not trying to be ugly. Just trying to learn you a thing or two.

Cane freak - some of us don't know all the synoptics. Please take that into consideration when answering someone. Particularly someone that is fairly new!

Green eyed girl - this really is a great place and most of the knowledgeable ones are willing to help us out that aren't familiar with how all this works - like me! Please feel free to ask your questions and ignore the few that may not seem so kind. And welcome!

Artist, thats why I said quote, "Not trying to be ugly. Just trying to learn you a thing or two. " Seems like no matter what you do on this board, you are going to get an earful about it. Pleeze.

[Derek Ortt]

beta is also size dependent

[HURAKAN]

BACK ON TOPIC:

[Zardoz]

Seems like no matter what you do on this board, you are going to get an earful about it. Pleeze.

From a certain few, yes.

[HURAKAN]

Seems like no matter what you do on this board, you are going to get an earful about it. Pleeze.

From a certain few, yes.

Please, lets get back on topic.

[Ptarmigan]

91L is large, so it could take time to develop into a TD. I do expect it t develop soon.

[Zardoz]

The eastern Caribbean basin appears to be filled at the moment by a naked spiral that is functioning effectively as a shearing machine. What are the chances of it still being there as 91L approaches the islands?

Caribbean AVN

[wxmann_91]

Really not looking good now. Suspect that the wave behind will take over.

[cycloneye]

Really not looking good now. Suspect that the wave behind will take over.

You gave up on 91L?.Yes the convection still is not circular,but the center looks better defined.