TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[cycloneye]

Hugo-like track anyone
JUST THE TRACK OF 1989'S HURRICANE HUGO, NOT THE DESTRUCTION AND DEATH AND INTENSITY.

Hey,dont remind me of that one.

[TheShrimper]

At this point, it is to early to tell where it may go, if indeed it develops. With that said, I will say that at some point in time in it's trek, there is a good chance that some part of Fla. will be in the cone. The 5 day spread at this time of year will be alot wider than Deano or Felix. TheShrimper.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

Continues to fire convection near the center tonight.

[skysummit]

Look at the ridiculous amount of convection just to the east of 91L.

[jaxfladude]

Hugo-like track anyone
JUST THE TRACK OF 1989'S HURRICANE HUGO, NOT THE DESTRUCTION AND DEATH AND INTENSITY.

Hey,dont remind me of that one.

I just have a bad feeling about this invest turning into "Humberto" and this years version worries me for some reason, I guess it the so called "luck" after 2004-5 and the respite in 2006 as far as the USA was concerned, I fear the USA's luck is going to run out sooner rather than later....
Hopefully if anything does become of this invest it will at worst it will be a big time FISH system and missing everyone.....


EDIT: After all, Humberto, is the replacement name for Hugo....

[TheShrimper]

Hey Jax, don't forget about the monsters that can occur in the next month and a half that have a greater chance of effecting the CONUS. This wont be the last threat.

[jaxfladude]

Hey Jax, don't forget about the monsters that can occur in the next month and a half that have a greater chance of effecting the CONUS. This wont be the last threat.

This is what I fear it has too long since the last major hurricane affected the USA, I know the have been 2 years and more between the impacts in the recent past, but in this cycle of higher number of named tropical systems the chances are that we might not be so lucky to go so long a streak w/o a major hurricane impacting the CONUS.....

[Sanibel]

91L could still bust. That center dried up.

[AtlanticWind]

91L could still bust. That center dried up.

I really dont think this is going to bust , Convection is growing and circulation is starting to tighten

[Extremeweatherguy]

Dried up? Doesn't look like it to me..

[O Town]

Starting to consolidate some, thats all. Looking pretty good to me this evening.

[cycloneye]

Cleaned.Lets get back to topic.

[BensonTCwatcher]

This thing just might pull a delayed right turn. Overalll west motion now, BUT check how the flow turns almost due N at the islands and the large ULL straight up the 40W line is moving E and will clear soon.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

This thing just might pull a delayed right turn. Overalll west motion now, BUT check how the flow turns almost due N at the islands and the large ULL straight up the 40W line is moving E and will clear soon.

steering currents look due west to me: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

[Ed Mahmoud]

if your looking for heat potential I always use this link....

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

Somebody at Dr. Master's blog at WU pointed out that while the dates change daily, the maximum intensity doesn't seem to change, and hasn't for a couple of months.

Compare that with this:

[green eyed girl]

This thing just might pull a delayed right turn. Overalll west motion now, BUT check how the flow turns almost due N at the islands and the large ULL straight up the 40W line is moving E and will clear soon.

steering currents look due west to me: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

I agree. When are they saying this should take a turn more northerly and what would steer it that way?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND IT COULD
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ALTHOUGH CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAVE
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING OVER THE EXTREME CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST JUST NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL
IT MOVES OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

[ConvergenceZone]

florida or a fish storm?

ther eis a good chance that it is niether

I'd say if this makes it to the carib, it has gulf coast written all over it, anyway from Texas east.......

[Ed Mahmoud]

The 12Z Euro 8 to 10 day mean 500 mb heights suggests an escape route in the subtropical ridge from about Hispaniola North and Northeastward. The same 8 to 10 day mean from the GFS showed almost zonal flow across the Northeast, without an obvious escape route.




Or, in other words, the future is rather uncertain.

[windstorm99]

This thing just might pull a delayed right turn. Overalll west motion now, BUT check how the flow turns almost due N at the islands and the large ULL straight up the 40W line is moving E and will clear soon.

steering currents look due west to me: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

I agree. When are they saying this should take a turn more northerly and what would steer it that way?

An extratropical storm over in the mid atlantic might try tug on 91L and cause it to turn wnw/nw in the coming days.