TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


This is about to take off , notice the line of thunderstorms building just north of the center.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TPC 8:05pm Discussion

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
A 1010 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N42W. THIS
SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

[ConvergenceZone]

If this develops, I think the chance of this doing the same exact thing Dean or Felix did is slim to none. Sure there's a high pressure center building to the North, but that doesn't mean that there will be the high pressure stretched all the way across the gulf building westward like it did with Felix and Dean. I thought it was a shock it happened 2 times in a row to begin with, , but no way will it happen 3 times in a row, someone will have to show me proof for me to believe that one....

[destruction92]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


This is about to take off , notice the line of thunderstorms building just north of the center.

Awaiting clearance for 27R...

[jaxfladude]

CPC declared a La Nina today.

viewtopic.php?p=1628041#p1628041

Thanks, RL3AO.

Now I can think about an spectacular ending for this season.

2004-2005 spectacular ?

[Brent]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


This is about to take off , notice the line of thunderstorms building just north of the center.

Awaiting clearance for 27R...

Cleared for takeoff.

[terrapintransit]

......

[Blown Away]

IMO, 91L has N Islands/Hebert Box written all over it. From there either SFL, Carolinas, or between CONUS and Bermuda. Just seems to be in a classic position at the right time of the season to take one of those tracks.

[cycloneye]

10/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


This is about to take off , notice the line of thunderstorms building just north of the center.

Awaiting clearance for 27R...

Have to agree. SAT presentation is pretty strong. Curved convection on the N and S sides of broad LLC. Almost like a frame. Need to check the quickscat. Also banding is improving. Overall large area though so I would not be surpised if takes to Wed or so to get classified. It's looking tonight like it will happen sooner than that. The weakness ( SE CONUS front) pulling this to the Northern Leewards looks like most likely track. Timing this far out is always tricky. But given all the Met. forecasts I have seen call for the weakness to be there. The timing o.f the overall average speed (regardless of sppedup or slowdown) for the next 5 days would seem to put a TC and the weakness in the same area by Friday night. I don't see anything ( other than a poorly progged strong,ridge) to move this though the Carib and beyond. Also climo is on the side of an overall NW motion for 5 days. I know Luis has all the "bears watching" as well.

[cycloneye]

I know Luis has all the "bears watching" as well.

Surely I am doing that,but also the authorities.

[cycloneye]

I posted at the title the position of the SSD dvorak T numbers in the title of thread as the system has passed 40w.There has been talk about the 48w longitud being important to the U.S. mainland,because that 48w line demarks a U.S. landfall to the east coast or not.I think it was Larrywx who brought the interesting stat about a system moving 315 degrees at 48w is not a threat to the East U.S. coast.

[AtlanticWind]

A TD by 11.00 am tuesday at latest by my guess. Wrapping up nicely now.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yep, I figured. HWRF is showing staying out of the Carib. With T-numbers perhaps the models will now start to get better initialized. Of course it means a stronger storm from here on perhaps.

Looking like a classic Sept troublemaker Humberto...hmph too soon for

[Blown Away]

I posted at the title the position of the SSD dvorak T numbers in the title of thread as the system has passed 40w.There has been talk about the 48w longitud being important to the U.S. mainland,because that 48w line demarks a U.S. landfall to the east coast or not.I think it was Larrywx who brought the interesting stat about a system moving 315 degrees at 48w is not a threat to the East U.S. coast.

Does the latitude matter w/ this formula?

[SWFLA_CANE]

10/2345 UTC 10.4N 40.5W T1.0/1.0 91L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

From 1745 UTC today
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/1745 UTC 9.6N 39.7W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean
Could be moving NW

[DESTRUCTION5]

I posted at the title the position of the SSD dvorak T numbers in the title of thread as the system has passed 40w.There has been talk about the 48w longitud being important to the U.S. mainland,because that 48w line demarks a U.S. landfall to the east coast or not.I think it was Larrywx who brought the interesting stat about a system moving 315 degrees at 48w is not a threat to the East U.S. coast.

Does the latitude matter w/ this formula?

What ive been thinking all day Blown

[Zardoz]

Sea surface temps are nicely set up for it:

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html


This is about to take off , notice the line of thunderstorms building just north of the center.

Awaiting clearance for 27R...

Have to agree. SAT presentation is pretty strong. Curved convection on the N and S sides of broad LLC. Almost like a frame. Need to check the quickscat. Also banding is improving. Overall large area though so I would not be surpised if takes to Wed or so to get classified. It's looking tonight like it will happen sooner than that. The weakness ( SE CONUS front) pulling this to the Northern Leewards looks like most likely track. Timing this far out is always tricky. But given all the Met. forecasts I have seen call for the weakness to be there. The timing o.f the overall average speed (regardless of sppedup or slowdown) for the next 5 days would seem to put a TC and the weakness in the same area by Friday night. I don't see anything ( other than a poorly progged strong,ridge) to move this though the Carib and beyond. Also climo is on the side of an overall NW motion for 5 days. I know Luis has all the "bears watching" as well.

you might be right TC....but also remember climo was against Felix and Dean as well.....just some food for thought...

[cycloneye]

I posted at the title the position of the SSD dvorak T numbers in the title of thread as the system has passed 40w.There has been talk about the 48w longitud being important to the U.S. mainland,because that 48w line demarks a U.S. landfall to the east coast or not.I think it was Larrywx who brought the interesting stat about a system moving 315 degrees at 48w is not a threat to the East U.S. coast.

Does the latitude matter w/ this formula?

I was thinking of the latitud factor too,but the best person to answer that is Larrywx.