TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[ConvergenceZone]

JB also pointed out that while he was overdone on intensity of Gabrielle, he doesn't know anyone else who picked up as early as he did on it, and he is 3 for 4 calling "rabbit out of the hat" (Barry, Erin, Gabrielle) development.

LOL, boy, talk about wanting to toot your own horn....Does he normally brag on how right he is when he gets certain predictions right?? Geez, he needs to show a bit of humbleness and not so much vanity with his forecasting. By the way, where can obtain his forecasts/videos?

[x-y-no]

JB also pointed out that while he was overdone on intensity of Gabrielle, he doesn't know anyone else who picked up as early as he did on it, and he is 3 for 4 calling "rabbit out of the hat" (Barry, Erin, Gabrielle) development.

LOL, boy, talk about wanting to toot your own horn....Does he normally brag on how right he is when he gets certain predictions right?? Geez, he needs to show a bit of humbleness and not so much vanity with his forecasting. By the way, where can obtain his forecasts/videos?

You have to subscribe to Accuweather Pro to get his column and videos.

[Ed Mahmoud]

d-min and d-max (which, by the way are not terms I have ever seen before seeing them on this board)...are terms refering to the convective maximum and minimum times of day for tropical systems.

The theory is that tropical systems are less convectively active when the temperature differences between the upper and lower troposphere are the least (ie...mid afternoon when heating occurs)...and more convectively active (more thundestrorms, higher colder cloud tops) when the temp differences are greatest (early in the morning before sunrise)...due to radational cooling of the upper troposphere)

I am guessing d-min refers to diurnal minimum and d-max refers to diurnal maximum.

Please note, however, that each tropical system is different and the diurnal min/max pulses may not line up with the time of day theory.

Also...I do not know what if any role this plays with weak/disorganized systems over water.

MW

Mike,

Based upon my experience in FL, the diurnal/nocturnal instability min/max would be more pronounced when it comes to weaker systems. After all, it has a significant effect on run-of-the-mill nocturnal showers off our east coast - they also tend to proliferate at night and weaken during the day (even outside of the sea breeze subsidence zone). With much stronger systems (canes), I think the more latent heat that convection is releasing into the ambient air mass in the vicinity of a system, the less significant the diurnal/nocturnal effects would be.

I always thought the very late night/early morning showers and occasional t-storms that form just offshore the Texas coast in Summer had something to do with convergence offshore due to difference in frictional effects, and that this weakened during the day as the sea-breeze set up.


But I never actually heard that anywhere official.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/1745 UTC 9.6N 39.7W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Meso]

[punkyg]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg
Hmmm well right now i'm waiting for quikscat to go over 91L
any one know when that will be?

I never really paid attention to where 91L's center is at so can you all tell me if theres convection over 91L's suppose center.

[alan1961]

JB also pointed out that while he was overdone on intensity of Gabrielle, he doesn't know anyone else who picked up as early as he did on it, and he is 3 for 4 calling "rabbit out of the hat" (Barry, Erin, Gabrielle) development.

LOL, boy, talk about wanting to toot your own horn....Does he normally brag on how right he is when he gets certain predictions right?? Geez, he needs to show a bit of humbleness and not so much vanity with his forecasting. By the way, where can obtain his forecasts/videos?

You have to subscribe to Accuweather Pro to get his column and videos.

Bastardi sometimes does the tropical update early in the morning on accuweather and thats the free version.

[HURAKAN]

10/1745 UTC 9.6N 39.7W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Derek Ortt]

interesting that there were no model runs on the system this afternoon

[dgparent]

interesting that there were no model runs on the system this afternoon

Why is that ? Do none of the models call for development anymore ?

[HURAKAN]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: NOAA MAY FLY RESEARCH MISSIONS
ON THE WAVE EAST OF THE ISLANDS BEGINING 13/0000Z.

[Pi Master]

"Let's not run the models because the models won't show any development."

wha....?

[hcane27]

I have seen quite often in the past when the system becomes "too weak to classify" that the model data is either not there or is unavailable ..... and will "show" later if it is "re-classified"

[gatorcane]

No model runs?

Yet after Dean and Felix, this is the next best looking system we have seen in the Atlantic that may look like it won't recurve?

I'm scratching my head...

[windstorm99]

Lastest GFDL run puts the storm NE of puerto rico this coming weekend...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007091012-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[cycloneye]

About the no 18:00 UTC BAM run,my take is that they are waiting for a center to be the dominant one to then start runs from there.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Well, if this develops, it probably won't be another low-rider, will it?

Derek, have you got an idea how this might pan out? (Probably a bit silly to ask, since this isn't even a TD yet and might take another 48 hours and the models aren't in perfect agreement either)
Maybe just missing out on the Leewards?

[cycloneye]

Folks,the 18:00 run of the BAMS came out very late.See the plots at the models thread.

[Derek Ortt]

I am struggling to see how this misses the islands. This may not even make it to the leeward Islands

This looks to be yet another Carib hurricane from the looks of this

[miamicanes177]

See my post just above yours, miamicanes177. And hcane27's post on page 10. About 1/3 of all storms in the vicinity of 91L recurved and were fish.

I did see the posts but I do not see how this is going to all the sudden start heading NW. The GFDL and HWRF are taking this immediately to the NW and that is not happening. This is heading straight west right now. Unless a major development happens the GFDL and HWRF are going to be out to lunch on their forecast points.