TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[LarryWx]

I think Larry's point has been misread.

His point, I think, is that no system moving at 315 before 48W has ever hit the US...not the other way around.

So...if this wave is moving at 315 degrees before it passes 48W...it's going to turn away before hitting the US.
MW

Thanks Mike for clarifying the point I was trying to make. Perfectly said.

[wxman57]

Let me check to see the 00Z EC. It shows a trof axis extending down to 91L beginning Wednesday. Ridge way to the northwest. Certainly not the same setup as with Felix or Dean. Trof to the north, not a ridge. By Friday, EC has the ridge building back to the south and east over 91L a little bit, but not a strong ridge. It would only take a movement toward 288 degrees from the current location to track north of the Caribbean. That may not be too difficult with a trof to the north if the EC is right.

[wxman57]

I think Larry's point has been misread.

His point, I think, is that no system moving at 315 before 48W has ever hit the US...not the other way around.

So...if this wave is moving at 315 degrees before it passes 48W...it's going to turn away before hitting the US.
MW

Thanks Mike for clarifying the point I was trying to make. Perfectly said.

Sorry, Larry, I misunderstood what you were saying.

[LarryWx]

It is hard to see what the globals are up to here...
The big question...back to Larry's post...is can it get to 50W without heading NW in the process?
MW

That's pretty much my take. Will the GFDL just be plain wrong?

Also, all readers should keep in mind that this "rule" of moving NW prior to reaching 48 W applies only once it becomes a tropical cyclone. Where it tracks as just an invest doesn't matter as far as this rule is concerned.

[x-y-no]

I'm with Mike and Derek here ... I don't understand what the globals are seeing, unless they've got it too far north.

I don't believe either the stall or the NW movement.

[LarryWx]

I think Larry's point has been misread.

His point, I think, is that no system moving at 315 before 48W has ever hit the US...not the other way around.

So...if this wave is moving at 315 degrees before it passes 48W...it's going to turn away before hitting the US.
MW

Thanks Mike for clarifying the point I was trying to make. Perfectly said.

Sorry, Larry, I misunderstood what you were saying.

No problem. Perhaps I didn't word it too well being that several posters misunderstood.

[x-y-no]

It is hard to see what the globals are up to here...
The big question...back to Larry's post...is can it get to 50W without heading NW in the process?
MW

That's pretty much my take. Will the GFDL just be plain wrong?

Also, all readers should keep in mind that this "rule" of moving NW prior to reaching 48 W applies only once it becomes a tropical cyclone. Where it tracks as just an invest doesn't matter as far as this rule is concerned.

The GFDL has been just plain wrong a lot more than usual this year. I don't know what they did to the code, but they ought to un-do it.

[Lowpressure]

I would be interested in Cycloneyes' take on this. NWS PR should be really watching this system, maybe with some solid insight.

[curtadams]

The globals are confused because they're being asked to imagine a cyclone that's not there. It's just a big strong low. Naturally they're going to be off predicting movement. As Sanibel pointed out, this is reminiscent of Felix and Dean where you had a big strong low chug west for some time before forming into a cyclone. BAMS is the model for the next day at the very least.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[storms in NC]

This is what Wilm had to say about the front coming in and stalling.

HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
STALL NEAR THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN IN THE
AREA WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SATURDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER WEATHER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

[KWT]

Let me check to see the 00Z EC. It shows a trof axis extending down to 91L beginning Wednesday. Ridge way to the northwest. Certainly not the same setup as with Felix or Dean. Trof to the north, not a ridge. By Friday, EC has the ridge building back to the south and east over 91L a little bit, but not a strong ridge. It would only take a movement toward 288 degrees from the current location to track north of the Caribbean. That may not be too difficult with a trof to the north if the EC is right.

Yeah I believe the other models show the same thing and thats the reason why the GFS keeps the system on a pretty much due west movement till 24-30hrs time. As you say the Atlantic set-up is different right now and there are more weaknesses in the high, right now two main ones appear to me, one around 45-50W and another between 70-80W, thesre two locations will be where 91L will take a more WNW/NW type direction.
I shoud note tohugh I'm not talking about a GFDL track, but maybe just enough to skirt the northern Leeward Islands and by that time I think we'll be looking at a strong tropical storm, maybe a minimal hurricane IF it forms.

At least this system has an active ITCZ to work with as well, plenty of instablity is present in that location, at least compared to what we saw when Felix came across.

[Fego]

Since this morning I have this doubt about the low being near 11 N, may be 11.5N... may be the Pro's can stablish a location.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Just back from eyeballing the visible loop and it looks to me like if it is moving now at all it is moving very slowly. Now I could be wrong with this observation but it does look like it is moving slowly to the west if at all.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Sanibel]

It's moving but the ridge is more lax with this one. My eye wants to say an Antilles track. I wonder what role the weaker ridge will play in forcing development? Track will depend on where the center forms in that broad circulation. I guess we can assume further north in a lax scenario.

Wait 24 hours.

[punkyg]

I still wanna know what will 91L do to the convection in front of it.
will 91L absorbed it or not?

oh and is 91L moving and if it is how fast?


Hi gusty!

[Sanibel]

Yes, it will overtake it and draw it in or displace it either way.

NHC says moving west 10-15mph

[storms in NC]

:uarrow: Yes, it will overtake it and draw it in or displace it either way.

NHC says moving west 10-15mph

That is a nice pace really 10-15

[Ed Mahmoud]

It's moving but the ridge is more lax with this one. My eye wants to say an Antilles track. I wonder what role the weaker ridge will play in forcing development? Track will depend on where the center forms in that broad circulation. I guess we can assume further north in a lax scenario.

Wait 24 hours.

Lesser Antilles or Greater Antilles?