TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

From San Juan NWS AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
605 AM AST MON SEP 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT IS DEPICTED IN STLT
IMAGERY ACROSS THE E CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC THIS MORNING...
ANCHORING TUTT AXIS EXTENDING ENE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC...AND SE
ACROSS THE WINDWARDS. MID LEVEL LOW THAT MOVED INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY IS NOW CENTERED SSW OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE COMPLEX
CONSISTING OF VARIOUS VORT CENTERS OF DISTINCT ORIGINS IS SHIFTING
WNW INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. A MID LEVEL VORT CENTER ALONG
THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY PAST 36
HOURS AND HAS CROSSED 60W ALONG ABOUT 19N OVERNIGHT. A MORE NW-SE
ALIGNED VORT LOBE STILL REFLECTING ORIGINS/INTERACTION IN MONSOON
TROF HAS MOVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES OVERNIGHT AND
IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES TO THE W OF THE MID LEVEL VORT...HAS BECOME
ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY OVERNIGHT AS IT HAS MAINTAINED A DEEP MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS FLARED UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. LOW TO
MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS RESULTED IN A
LACK OF CVNTN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE LEEWARDS AND
THE LOCAL AREA...AND CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH WV IMAGERY AND TPW LOOPS.
AS THIS WAVE COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA...LESS LLVL
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AND WE HAVE THUS TONED DOWN RAIN CHANCES
FOR TODAY BY 20-30% AREA WIDE. BETTER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IS
THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS...AND AN AEJ
SEGMENT BEHIND THIS WAVE CATCHES UP TO IT OVERNIGHT...INDUCING
FURTHER FORCING. SCATTERED PASSING TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE CELLS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS. A BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGE AND SAL ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LIMITED DEEP CNVTN...OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY FORCED CELLS.

GFS THEN FORECASTS A TUTT LOW TO SPIN UP TO OUR NNE WEDNESDAY...
AND RETROGRADE SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A MORE CLASSIC TROPICAL WAVE WAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC
THIS MORNING...WITH STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTING A LLVL CIRCULATION
CENTER INVOF 10N 38W. NHC IS CURRENTLY MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR
GRADUAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
RUNNING THE SUITE OF HURRICANE MODELS. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT PERSISTENT MID LEVEL TROFFING ACROSS THE W CENTRAL
ATLC WOULD ALLOW THIS SYSTEM TO LIFT MORE NW AND MISS THE NE
CARIB. HOWEVER...WE ARE IN THE PEAK OF THE SEASON...AND THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY AT 10N...SO IT DOES POSE SOME THREAT TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL REGION. GLOBALS MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE ALONG ABOUT 55W
12Z SUNDAY.

[HURAKAN]

latest:

[Coredesat]

I renamed the thread to remove "cyclone in 48 hours" because it might mislead people into thinking a TCFA has been issued. Also, both TCFAs and danger graphics don't say a system will form in 48 hours, only that it's possible.

[Chacor]

[cycloneye]

Will,that is true.

[HURAKAN]

In this image, a little more than an hour old, the system looks impressive.

[Chacor]

The two clusters of convection seem awfully spread out though... it needs to consolidate more?

[KWT]

Yeah thats what I think, convectivly its very active and it probably already has some sort of low level circulation with it but the system is huge and so is the circulation which is going to make further development slow to occur, hence why only slow development is expected.

For whats its worth, I know I've already used this system as an comprasion with Dean (was too far south and very powerful ridging was in place) but Georges could be quite similar to this system ,a bit slower forming probably but track wise and the time of year, its very close.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The southern area of convection is a feeder "band" on the ITCZ. It is drawing moisture from the ITCZ. The northern one is the system becoming better organized...With a broad LLC forming near 10.2/39 west. Really I can't be super sure its all closed off into a well defined LLC. But a broad one I can be. We will see about that when quickscat data comes in. Yes there is a trough moving to the north of the high pressure area. In which could weaken it, but I feel that it should slow it down to around 10 mph instead of 14-16 mph its doing now. I also feel it won't be as strong...So very little motion northward can be expected. I don't think this will make north of 15 north to 55 maybe 60 west.

I think this will become something interesting.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_2.html

Closed and well defined(not to broad) but kind of elongated. Maybe a few hours old. Only 20-25 knot winds on the southern side.

[RL3AO]

This invest reminds me of Man-Yi in July halfway across the world in the Western pacific. Remember that one?

Yeah. Man-yi took quite a few days to consolidate because it was so big. So be patient people...for those that are hoping for development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm hoping that quickscat is old.

[Chacor]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/latest_at_2.html

Closed and well defined(not to broad) but kind of elongated. Maybe a few hours old. Only 20-25 knot winds on the southern side.

Is it just me, or does the pass time say 8:036?

[HURAKAN]

I'm hoping that quickscat is old.

It says 11:12 UTC = 7:12 AM EDT. 40 minutes old.

[Chacor]

I'm hoping that quickscat is old.

It says 11:12 UTC = 7:12 AM EDT. 40 minutes old.

HURAKAN, that's when the data was processed. The actual pass time is in purple at the bottom of the image.

[RL3AO]

I think its 6 hours old. The time says 603UTC = 103 EDT.

[cycloneye]

That quickscat is old Look at the purple numbers at the bottom of image.

[O Town]

Why?
Its only about 45 minutes old. Mine says 11:12UTC which I thought equaled 7:12AM for me anyways.

[Chacor]

Why?
Its only about 45 minutes old. Mine says 11:12UTC which I thought equaled 7:12AM for me anyways.

Data processing time isn't the time of the pass, which is the purple number at the bottom of the image.