TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[CrazyC83]

This continues to look like it could be a classic large September Cape Verde Hurricane.

I agree. Humberto (or Ingrid if 92L goes first) could be big. It might go though...

[Brent]

This continues to look like it could be a classic large September Cape Verde Hurricane.

Yep...

The two previous Humberto's have been fish, will this follow the trend or be different?

[cycloneye]

This continues to look like it could be a classic large September Cape Verde Hurricane.

Those who haved been destructive in the history of Puerto Rico and the NE islands.To only mention some,The 1928 hurricane (San Felipe) the only cat 5 in hisstory to make landfall in Puerto Rico,Hurricanes Allen,Gilbert,Floyd,Hugo,Katrina.Those hurricanes mentiones were big in total area and 91L is going to be big in area coverage.

[terrapintransit]

Just look at that thing........ It may be way out there but it's the biggest thing ( this early in the game) that we have seen all season!!!!!!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I feel that this will be different. The ridge is strong enough. Yes I expect to enter the caribbean around 13-14 north...Could get interesting.

[JTD]

This wave deserves most of the attention out of the 3 invests at this point IMO. Plus, it's the only system in the TWO out of the three invests that the NHC has declared could be a t.d. in the coming days. Hopefully we start seeing more posts and analysis here. So far, we're only at 7 pages.

[GeneratorPower]

I have seen several storms increase in size as they intensified, Katrina being one of them. The wind field expanded. But why is it that it seems storms who start small, stay small, and those who start large, stay large? Pro-met answers greatly appreciated.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Out of the 3 invests, I think this one has the most long-term potential. I also do not think this system will recurve. The ridge looks too strong and the system is far enough south that I think another caribbean storm is very possible. We will have to see what happens..

[CrazyC83]

Could 92L punch a hole in the ridge large enough to allow this to move through?

[wxmann_91]

I have seen several storms increase in size as they intensified, Katrina being one of them. The wind field expanded. But why is it that it seems storms who start small, stay small, and those who start large, stay large? Pro-met answers greatly appreciated.

I'm not a pro met, but storms that start small definitely do not remain small. One can infer from the Second Law of Thermodynamics that all storms will have a tendency to expand as time passes (greater entropy). In fact some of the most powerful storms start off very small and then balloon in size.

[windstorm99]

The invisible magnet will put into the caribbean...The story of 2007.

[CrazyC83]

If the "92L hole" scenario plays out and this becomes Humberto, this could end up ultimately doing what his "father" did...

[cycloneye]

I have my chart ready to track this one that will be a longtracker and may move more closer to where I am than Dean and Felix did.Already the civil defense chief Nazario Lugo said that they are watching closely this system.

[destruction92]

Out of the 3 invests, I think this one has the most long-term potential. I also do not think this system will recurve. The ridge looks too strong and the system is far enough south that I think another caribbean storm is very possible. We will have to see what happens..

The subtropical ridge is not going to be that strong to make another hurricane the talk of the Caribbean and GOM. In the short term, a weak trough in the central Atlantic should steer 91L wnw until the ridge builds back. This may enter the extreme northern Caribbean for a short time as it threatens the northern Leeward Islands and possibly Puerto Rico.

Right now, I think the safest bet is to take the middle path between the fish scenario and the "it's going to the Caribbean (silently implied GOM)" scenario.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[Derek Ortt]

92L is not punching a hole in anything, as it is currently NOTHING

[Zardoz]

It's so big now the floater close-up doesn't really give you a good sense of it. The Central Atlantic view does, though:

GOES East Rainbow

Pretty fair cyclonic rotation now. By this time tomorrow it could be a very scary-looking system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Out of the 3 invests, I think this one has the most long-term potential. I also do not think this system will recurve. The ridge looks too strong and the system is far enough south that I think another caribbean storm is very possible. We will have to see what happens..

The subtropical ridge is not going to be that strong to make another hurricane the talk of the Caribbean and GOM. In the short term, a weak trough in the central Atlantic should steer 91L wnw until the ridge builds back. This may enter the extreme northern Caribbean for a short time as it threatens the northern Leeward Islands and possibly Puerto Rico.

Right now, I think the safest bet is to take the middle path between the fish scenario and the "it's going to the Caribbean (silently implied GOM)" scenario.

We'll see..

For now, I think somewhere between a Caribbean storm path and a path more toward the northern islands/southern bahamas is the best bet. I do not think this will be a harmless fish. Though the ridge may not be as strong as with Dean/Felix, it is still strong enough, IMO, to keep this moving W or WNW for at least the next few days. 91L may turn more north once near the southeast coast (if it ends up getting that far north), but if 91L ends up in the western Caribbean instead, then that "silently implied" GOM scenario (that you accused me of with no reasoning behind the accusation) may actually be a reality this time..unlike with Dean and Felix. We have plenty of time to watch this though, and no alarm bells need to be sounded for any region that far west right now...especially since this isn't even a TD yet.

[ROCK]

Out of the 3 invests, I think this one has the most long-term potential. I also do not think this system will recurve. The ridge looks too strong and the system is far enough south that I think another caribbean storm is very possible. We will have to see what happens..

The subtropical ridge is not going to be that strong to make another hurricane the talk of the Caribbean and GOM. In the short term, a weak trough in the central Atlantic should steer 91L wnw until the ridge builds back. This may enter the extreme northern Caribbean for a short time as it threatens the northern Leeward Islands and possibly Puerto Rico.

Right now, I think the safest bet is to take the middle path between the fish scenario and the "it's going to the Caribbean (silently implied GOM)" scenario.

And what are you implying? You know I am getting tired of your act. Know where in EWG's post did he imply anything. Are you a mind reader?

Try backing your argument with some sound data. The GDFL hasn't even run on this system yet. The BAMMS keep it shallow. Did you look at the latest GFS run? The high is forecasted to be strong.....As strong as Felix and Dean probably not but for the next few days its westward- WNW. By that time it will have organized enough for the globals to intialize it better as far as track....

Again I ask what is your issue?

[HURAKAN]

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