Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi cut a special Sunday video for 92L.

The GOMEX system, per JB, could have the upper shear relax just in time, before Texas or Mexico, for a quick Erin type TS development.

OK, he was 30 mb too strong, but he did pick Gabrielle a week before it developed.


I'll post this in 92L thread as well, as while JB says too early to pick landfall, he says conditions will be extremely favorable over the Bahamas when 92L arrives. He thinks it could be big ticket. He didn't discuss EATL monster wave too much, but he seemed to imply yesterday it was also big ticket, and he wasn't at all sure it would recurve.

He didnt said anything more about the best system out there 91L?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi cut a special Sunday video for 92L.

The GOMEX system, per JB, could have the upper shear relax just in time, before Texas or Mexico, for a quick Erin type TS development.

OK, he was 30 mb too strong, but he did pick Gabrielle a week before it developed.


I'll post this in 92L thread as well, as while JB says too early to pick landfall, he says conditions will be extremely favorable over the Bahamas when 92L arrives. He thinks it could be big ticket. He didn't discuss EATL monster wave too much, but he seemed to imply yesterday it was also big ticket, and he wasn't at all sure it would recurve.

He didnt said anything more about the best system out there 91L?

I guess because 92L is closer, but he is obviously impressed by the size, and has hinted he isn't at all sure it will recurve, as many of the models have suggested.

[wzrgirl1]

i think derek may be right about this...until it gets an LLC....there is really nothing to talk about

[PTrackerLA]

Although void of most convection 92L has quite a vigorous MLC. A blow-up of convection overnight and it could be well on it's way to depression status by tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

Although void of most convection 92L has quite a vigorous MLC. A blow-up of convection overnight and it could be well on it's way to depression status by tomorrow.

Agree. Tomorrow's DMAX may be decisive!!!

[Vortex]

Also agree..the foundation is now set..look forward to watching the next burst later this evening..

[windstorm99]

wow its all but dried up....My thoughts right now its currently encountering 10 to 20 kts. of Westerly shear from that trough to its NNE. As 92L moves WNW the shear will decrease considerably the next 24 to 48 hours and the system might have a good chance to develope.

[Vortex]

Actually, the ridge is now firmly in place. In fact the last few hours IR2 has noted a w/wsw movement..Convection should fire within the next few hours..


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-ir2.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Interesting scenario:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Tampa Bay Area:

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH
MID/LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. MEANWHILE A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A SURFACE
FRONT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...REACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE UNDER GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL KEEP
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN STATES
AND REINFORCES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY...OR AT LEAST THAT IS
THE LATEST MODEL TREND. 50 POPS ARE IN PLACE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY EACH AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED 20 POPS IN THE EVENINGS.

ANOTHER INCREASINGLY PERSISTENT FEATURE IN THE MODELS IS AN INVERTED
TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IF THIS
MATERIALIZES THEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMALS WITH MANY LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING MORNING LOWS ABOVE CLIMO

[Gustywind]

Latest from meteo france 6pm
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg

Big troubles for 92L convection has weaken we will see if convection can refire tonight but note that since yesterday at the same time it has the same problem during the afternoon

[HURAKAN]

Like Vortex mentioned before, the structure is already there, it just needs to pass through DMAX and a depression could form shortly after that IF it continues acting the way it has been over the past 24 hours or more.

[Gustywind]

wow its all but dried up....My thoughts right now its currently encountering 10 to 20 kts. of Westerly shear from that trough to its NNE. As 92L moves WNW the shear will decrease considerably the next 24 to 48 hours and the system might have a good chance to develope.

Windstorm 99....
Where do you see shear, maybe it's my untrained eyes.... or my eyes are deceiving me?
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-1.html
at 2 pm no shear or 5 kts !

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

After hours of extensive research into the synoptics, I think
I have a better idea what may happen:

1. With the ridge building, we will see a WNW
motion towards the Bahamas.

2. 2 troughs are forecasting to dig into
the Southeast by Friday, the first on Tuesday.
In 2-3 days, 92L will feel the influence
of these troughs, and depending on the
strength of the ridge, may recurve
while close to florida's east coast and head
up to the carolinas.

3. Some moisture the next 2-3 days over florida,
but after that, with 90L moving west, and
92L making a close call with the coast, the weather
will be dry or wet depending on where
92L decides to recurve.

4. If the ridge wins out, I see a track
into Southeast florida. If the trough wins out,
I see impacts on North Carolina.

5. It appears that many have provided
evidence of a strengthening ridge, in that case
the threat to florida's southeast coast
may increase, unless a trough pushes
92L away.

6. The environment is looking very favorable
over the bahamas, so some rapid intensification is
likely, once a depression gets going.

7. The current decline in convection is due to diurnal
minimum. It WILL refire. The same thing happened
last night. Therefore 92L is NOT DEAD.

[Gustywind]

Tkanks Tampa bay hurricane I vote for you this month loool , amazing and decent forecast Whereas keep some energy for next week it wil ve hot

[rainydaze]

Thanks Tampa Bay for that very educated and level headed dicussion

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you. I was very confused by the interactions of
all these features earlier...so I tried to word it in a way
that would lessen my confusion. I don't know it's accuracy,
so I eagerly await pro mets opinions.

[wxmann_91]

Before anything can happen w/ 92L, we need some low level convergence to make convection last through the DMIN.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Before anything can happen w/ 92L, we need some low level convergence to make convection last through the DMIN.

I think it will, but what exactly will provide that convergence- I am just
curious?

[Brent]

Before anything can happen w/ 92L, we need some low level convergence to make convection last through the DMIN.

Yes we do, just having high clouds during the D-Min means it has ZERO chance. Need convection. Doesn't really matter if it flares up for 6 hours in the morning, it has to persist better.

That being said, I still think this has a good shot at developing and I'll be watching closely.

[cpdaman]

Interesting scenario:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

]MEANWHILE A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEND A SURFACE
FRONT DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...REACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
TUESDAY EVENING. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLUS INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE UNDER GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WILL KEEP
GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY. A SECOND TROUGH QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN STATES
AND REINFORCES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY[/b]...OR AT LEAST THAT IS
THE LATEST MODEL TREND.

this made me feel a little better in florida and should make people feel a little more uneasy in the carolina's although both are obviously at risk SHOULD this develop