Carribean disturbance Updated

[chadtm80]

Storm2k Tropical Outlook http://storm2k.org/Weather-Central/Trop ... ropics.htm

Cuba and surrounding Radars http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... aRadar.htm

[Toni - 574]

Thanks Chad for the links, looks like we need to keep 2 eyes on this area.

[Rainband]

Yes TONI..especially if you listen to BAYNEWS9..Just what we need!!! NOT :o

[Amanzi]

HHMMM looks rather messy down there to say the least :o

[Toni - 574]

Yes TONI..especially if you listen to BAYNEWS9..Just what we need!!! NOT :o

No rainband I don't . I wish I did, I have verizon and they do not carry Baynews 9.

What are they saying? Keep me updated if you would please!

I will be out for a while today, but will check in as soon as I can.

[Rainband]

Yes TONI..especially if you listen to BAYNEWS9..Just what we need!!! NOT :o

No rainband I don't . I wish I did, I have verizon and they do not carry Baynews 9.

What are they saying? Keep me updated if you would please!

I will be out for a while today, but will check in as soon as I can.

Just that its gonna be wet and we need to watch this closely

[Amanzi]

Not much being stated here on the East coast of FL. Just the increase in rain chances to 70% which is being attributed to the sea breeze collisions. Right now we are on the dry side, so I will take those scattered storms thanks

[ColdFront77]

I am sure the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL is taking into account the at least close passage of this convection, the most impressive activity is to the east of whatever center there is. (Which is true with true tropical systems.)

[chadtm80]

From my Local news station... WFTV

Friday Hour By Hour



Saturday Hour By Hour


There calling for a two day total of 3-5 here Yowsers, and I have a Tee time at 4pm today... rut roe.. LOL

[southerngale]

Where is it supposed to go? Way over here in Texas our mets our saying that the earliest possible effect from this system in our area would be around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. I thought SF and Steve were suggesting a low off the coast of Texas or Louisiana.

Are conditions now suggesting more towards Florida?

[Steve]

>>Where is it supposed to go? Way over here in Texas our mets our saying that the earliest possible effect from this system in our area would be around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. I thought SF and Steve were suggesting a low off the coast of Texas or Louisiana.

I still think that's the most likely scenario, though it's tough to say whether or not anything's going to actually form. That won't be evident at least until Sunday. The rain is liable to be pumping in on the eastern side of whatever ends up on shore. The fear (and it was the ECMWF's call) is that whatever comes ashore just hovers around the coast feeding in deep tropical moisture for a few days.

Steve

[Guest]

This is what the HOU/GAL NWS posted today. I think its headed to Texas/ La

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CF STILL LOCATED NORTH OF SE TX TONIGHT. ROUGHLY FROM A TPL TO GGG
LINE. BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY AND LIKELY STALL
OVER SE TX. NOT MUCH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS NORTHERLY DUE TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE LARGE SCALE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EVENING CONVECTION. WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SE TX EARLY THIS MORNING AND IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS IN A VERY
MOIST AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE CHC OF RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE MESOETA MODEL WHICH HAS HAD THE BEST
FORECAST OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO STALL
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE FORECAST AREAWIDE. WILL TAPER FROM THE COAST TO THE NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. PW VALUES WILL
GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY...BUT REMAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFT. WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE...EXPECT A
SEABREEZE TO FORM AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ACROSS COASTAL
AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL ZONES. THEREFORE...WILL HAVE SCT POPS IN FOR
THESE ZONES AND CHANGE CURRENT WORDING FROM MORNING TO INCLUDE THE
CHC ALL DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHC THIS EVE ACROSS THE COAST.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS THIS MORNING AS I MAY NEED TO MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES. WILL NOT CARRY ANY
POPS TOMORROW AS LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AREAWIDE. DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN WARMER HIGH TEMPS. THINK HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE MAV NUMBERS SAT-MON.

BIG QUESTION MARK REMAINS CONCERNING THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
LIKELY APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST ON MONDAY. WILL TREND TOWARD THE
WETTER ECMWF SOLN WHICH SHOWS WEAKNESS ALOFT AND TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING INLAND ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE WILL INCREASE THE POPS INTO THE
CHC RANGE FOR THE TUE-THU TIME PERIOD.

Comments from any of the Hou/Galv posters

[BreinLa]

Well that just about right lol right in time for the 4th of July my question is exactly what will we be watching rain or something more

[Rainband]

You can have it LOL..I think it's too early to know where it's going for sure..they are going by the models..that are changing constantly..If it develops..I'd say my best guess would be anywhere along the gulf coast..if it doesn't I think from what I have heard the front would absorb the moisture and make for a wet weekend up and down the eastern seaboard..Like I said we are saturated..You can have this one!!!! This is going to be a waiting game..to see if it develops and goes..It could remain stationary for a while!!!

[southerngale]

Rainband...David said this system may split so I guess that's why Texas and Florida (and I assume everywhere in between) is keeping a close eye on this.

[Rainband]

[Amanzi]

Ok John... Help me out with this map????

[GalvestonDuck]

Just a couple of questions regarding Ticka's NWS post:

"ROUGHLY FROM A TPL TO GGG LINE" What's "TPL" and "GGG?"

"PW VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY" I'm sure P must be for precipitation. So what's the "W" stand for?

And finally, "POPS"?

I've figured everything else out.

Thanks in advance!
~Duck

[PTrackerLA]

Well "PW" stands for precipitable water which is a figure that represents how much moisture is in the air. I'm sure it's more complicated than that but that is the easiest explanation.

[wxman57]

First of all:

"ROUGHLY FROM A TPL TO GGG LINE" What's "TPL" and "GGG?"

"PW VALUES WILL GRADUALLY FALL DURING THE DAY" I'm sure P must be for precipitation. So what's the "W" stand for?

And finally, "POPS"?

PW = Precipitable Water, a measurement of how much moisture could be "squeezed" out of a given column of air

POPS = Probability of Precipitation (the plural form)

TPL = Temple, TX (near Waco)

GGG = Longview, TX - northeast part of the state.

=============================================

Now, as for the disturbance, take a look at the westward extent of the Bermuda high at the surface and 850 mb. That would be just west of the Florida Peninsula. Lower-level wind flow is just about straight to the north from the disturbance. There's an upper-level trof across the NW Gulf.

Since that upper-level trof is forecast to build a bit eastward with time, and the Bermuda high doesn't build west, I don't see any reason for this thing to go any farther west than it already is. That means it would most likely head north right into Florida. The chances of it developing into a TD or TS are still not too great, maybe 20-30%. Looks like a rain-maker.