Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

Wow, this came out of nowhere!

[cycloneye]

GFDL did not run for the 12z time.Lets see if it runs at 18z.

[Vortex]

there should be an 18z GFDL run..even on an invest...

[gatorcane]

If the 1935 - 2007 analogy has any merit we should watch for homebrew out of the Bahamas...

I'm the one that suggested that analogy.

If we look at this system even if it waits until getting to the SE Bahamas to develop it could bomb out quickly...we have seen this before (like in 1935)...

prediction: convection waning some until DMAX then refiring..depression by tommorrow afternoon with cone pointing at SE Bahamas with a slight bend to the right at the end....

Just a prediction and only my opinion.......not storm2ks

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am very confused. So a strong
cold front would steer 92L into the carolinas,
but 90L goes west under a building ridge?
Well in that case florida would be safe.
But of course we have to watch.

But the ridge is strong, 92L still mainly carolinas due
to cold front?
And 90L gets pushed NE towards florida Wilma style
due to the strong cold front???

What's going on here I am really confused?

If the ridge builds in it increases 92L risk to FL
but it depends on the timing of the cold front??
But would the cold front push 90L into Western FL???

[CrazyC83]

Could Gabrielle act as a magnet for this system? Since she dipped south before going back north, it might have opened up a hole...

[gatorcane]

no Gabrielle is too weak. If she were a CAT 3+ monster she probably would open up a hole in the subtropical ridge.

What will happen is that she will move out to the NE around the NW periphery of the Bermuda High.....

Keep in mind invest 92L is predicted to move West at 15mph..in fact that last TWO said it was moving west at 15mph. Do not be deceived by SW shear it is currently seeing...the fact is it is not gaining much lattitude yet....

[Sanibel]

Looks like Gabrielle is too weak to influence this right now.


This disturbance could be all mid-level and still be wiped out by the synoptics I spoke of last night (the engrained Atlantic airmass) but after last night I'll offer no guesses.

[KWT]

Gatorcane its extrap movement on the latest SHIPS is pretty much NW at the moment on the graph I saw it is picking up lattiude according to the intial data. I can't help but think that its feeling a slight weakness but whether its the central Atlantic upper low or Gabrielle I can't say.

As for 1935, I really can't see any link to that now, maybe a month ago but not now.

[gatorcane]

Everybody check out this WV loop:

There is NO evidence of any monster cold front sweeping across the US here.....just a zonal flow over the US Canadian border...

Also you can see the ridge East of Gabrielle setting up shop....which will not allow this invest to move north out to sea..at least initially

Still thinking it is going to get close to FL.....and get into the Bahamas.

Personally I don't think the cold front will make it in time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[wxmann_91]

If the 1935 - 2007 analogy has any merit we should watch for homebrew out of the Bahamas...

I'm the one that suggested that analogy.

If we look at this system even if it waits until getting to the SE Bahamas to develop it could bomb out quickly...we have seen this before (like in 1935)...

prediction: convection waning some until DMAX then refiring..depression by tommorrow afternoon with cone pointing at SE Bahamas with a slight bend to the right at the end....

Just a prediction and only my opinion.......not storm2ks

Not this again. Analogs don't work that way.

Just b/c year AAAA and year BBBB are similar to year XXXX and year YYYY, does not mean year CCCC will be similar to year ZZZZ (if you get my train of thought).

Analogs are based off of observed and predicted 500mb hemispheric patterns, not some point observation that happens to match. And even basing off climatological indexes/500mb hemispheric longwave patterns, what transpires in the predicted time interval will likely be very much different from what transpired during the analog time interval. The atmosphere is just chaotic that way.

There is absolutely no connection between 1935 and 2007 whatsoever.

[destruction92]

Gatorcane its extrap movement on the latest SHIPS is pretty much NW at the moment on the graph I saw it is picking up lattiude according to the intial data. I can't help but think that its feeling a slight weakness but whether its the central Atlantic upper low or Gabrielle I can't say.

As for 1935, I really can't see any link to that now, maybe a month ago but not now.

Certainly not Gabrielle...no offense to Gabrielle, but it is looking like a piece of you know what right now!

[Brent]

Everybody check out this WV loop:

There is NO evidence of any monster cold front sweeping across the US here.....just a zonal flow over the US Canadian border...

Also you can see the ridge East of Gabrielle setting up shop....which will not allow this invest to move north out to sea..at least initially

Still thinking it is going to get close to FL.....and get into the Bahamas.

Personally I don't think the cold front will make it in time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

This "cold front" is looking like a big non-event down here. Basically the same weather next weekend as this weekend.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Guys what is supposed to happen? Will the ridge
build strong and make FL threatened by 92L?
Or will the cold front sweep it out??? I'm sorry
but what does everyone think. It's so confusing.
SOmebody says ridge. ANotehr says cold front

[Vortex]

Puerto Rico NWS


A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT...BEFORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING WINDS...SEAS...AND WEATHER IS
EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE AND A WIND SURGE FOLLOWING THE WAVE. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT


**Looks to get very active Mon night

[Vortex]

18Z NAM rolling in..

H-60 just north of DR after passing through PR.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[Vortex]

While the convection has decreased for now..the outflow is continuing to establish itself in all quads(2015utc)...Next burst of convection this evening may take this system the next level

[Vortex]

H-66 NAM moving into the SE bahamas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[KWT]

Looks like the NAM starts it off too far south compared to where its at currently which no doubts will make a difference later in its run. Heads WNW/NW after 54hrs it seems.

[Vortex]

NAM H-72 very favorable upper-air pattern...Strong ridge remains to the north..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif