Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.

TX has had quite active Septs in the pass 60+ years. It is also our busiest months over the those years. Our season doesn't really end until late Sept ealry Oct after a few good cold fronts......Rita was in Sept 18-26th.....mainly its about timing with the trofs and subsequent building of high pressure....[/quote]

Oh gosh. Here we go. That is why I said "Central Gulf Coast" and not "Western Gulf Coast". This means that I was talking about Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

I never implied TX. By the way, Rita barely made landfall in TX...it was VERY close to making landfall in Louisiana as it made landfall near the TX/LA border.

[cpdaman]

was it not obvious to anyone else destruction was baiting floridians. i mean there are no imminent threats but there is no need to resort to that. nothing positive comes from it.

obviously this will be an intresting week and by thursday we will probably have a system effecting the islands as well as 92 L near the bahamas IMO

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looks like the worst of this stays North of the VI & Puerto Rico, but if it were any further South I'd hope for a resources permitting invest mission tomorrow.

[jaxfladude]

[ROCK]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.

TX has had quite active Septs in the pass 60+ years. It is also our busiest months over the those years. Our season doesn't really end until late Sept ealry Oct after a few good cold fronts......Rita was in Sept 18-26th.....mainly its about timing with the trofs and subsequent building of high pressure....

Oh gosh. Here we go. That is why I said "Central Gulf Coast" and not "Western Gulf Coast". This means that I was talking about Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

I never implied TX. By the way, Rita barely made landfall in TX...it was VERY close to making landfall in Louisiana as it made landfall near the TX/LA border.[/quote]


a) I never said this was coming into the GOM b) the person asked me about TX and seasons c) I answered with facts d) tell the people in SE Texas that Rita did not cause damage and finally

C) what is your malfunction?

[Ed Mahmoud]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.[/quote]

Texas is still in season now, but the season does start shutting down as the Wersterlies come back for the Fall, and the first cold front of the year is predicted around Tuesday.

When Rita was approaching this general direction, mi suegro said it wouldn't get here, we'd already had a cold front, and, in fact, it did turn up just before Texas. (Of course, the Western side still did a pretty good job on Beaumont/Pt Arthur, and even here in HOU we lost power for a day). October has had a single hurricane, a barely Cat 1 Jerry in 1989, in six decades.

Whereas, IIRC, Borderline Cat2/Cat 3 Hurricane Kate hit Florida in November. A short hurricane season, no state income taxes, no earthquakes, lower tornado per square mile ratio than Oklahoma, Tex-mex food, all part of living in God's Country, Western Hemisphere edition.

[wxmann_91]

I actually think there's a greater chance that 92L smashes into the mountains of Hispaniola. There's a significant SAL surge to the east of 92L per 12Z GFS initialization. Low level ridge axis is expected to strengthen significantly which would increase storm-relative shear as low level easterly winds ramp up to 30-35 kt. Hispaniola has a history of pulling weak systems into its mountains. (see Debby 2000, Ernesto 2006, et. al.)

[perk]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.

TX has had quite active Septs in the pass 60+ years. It is also our busiest months over the those years. Our season doesn't really end until late Sept ealry Oct after a few good cold fronts......Rita was in Sept 18-26th.....mainly its about timing with the trofs and subsequent building of high pressure....

Oh gosh. Here we go. That is why I said "Central Gulf Coast" and not "Western Gulf Coast". This means that I was talking about Mississippi, Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.

I never implied TX. By the way, Rita barely made landfall in TX...it was VERY close to making landfall in Louisiana as it made landfall near the TX/LA border. Rita barely made landfall in Texas is like saying a football team only won the game by one point,or a car only won the race by one tenth of a second.Rita made landfall in Texas just ask those residents that are still trying to rebuild their lives.

[Ed Mahmoud]

IIRC, technically, the center of Rita crossed the coast just on the Louisiana side of the Sabine River.

[windstorm99]

Very low shear in 92L's path...

[Vortex]

good point wx91...A possibility as well

[destruction92]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.

Texas is still in season now, but the season does start shutting down as the Wersterlies come back for the Fall, and the first cold front of the year is predicted around Tuesday.

When Rita was approaching this general direction, mi suegro said it wouldn't get here, we'd already had a cold front, and, in fact, it did turn up just before Texas. (Of course, the Western side still did a pretty good job on Beaumont/Pt Arthur, and even here in HOU we lost power for a day). October has had a single hurricane, a barely Cat 1 Jerry in 1989, in six decades.

Whereas, IIRC, Borderline Cat2/Cat 3 Hurricane Kate hit Florida in November. A short hurricane season, no state income taxes, no earthquakes, lower tornado per square mile ratio than Oklahoma, Tex-mex food, all part of living in God's Country, Western Hemisphere edition.[/quote]

Please, everyone, let's get back on topic and start discussing 92L. I myself will get back to topic. Let's not make this a thread about how Texas or any other state for that matter is "overdue" for a hurricane or something.

Given the current synoptics, I am speculating a Carolina impact due to a weakening ridge...I may be wrong though and I admit it. Okay? So please, let's try to have a civil debate here.

[windstorm99]

Models inidicate a WNW movement should start in the next day or two.

If those bams are right the ridge will hold strong.

[destruction92]

Wow, the current movement of 92L is NW according to XTRP...and if that wasn't enough, the BAMS takes 92L towards the Carolinas.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_92.gif

[fasterdisaster]

I say we should be expecting effects in Puerto Rico, the Turks & Caicos, the Bahamas, Florida, and the East Coast.

[windstorm99]

[Vortex]

Convection continues to wane this afternoon as expected...More importantly 92 has developed an anticyclone aloft and re-firing of convection in a few hours may bring about the MLC to the surface...

[Sanibel]

If the 1935 - 2007 analogy has any merit we should watch for homebrew out of the Bahamas...

[Vortex]

I'd like to see a run of the GFDL as it tends to pick up on changes downstream fairly well..

[destruction92]

I'd like to see a run of the GFDL as it tends to pick up on changes downstream fairly well..

is that even possible? I don't think so if the GFDL has not even picked up on 92L or initialized it.