Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[destruction92]

yes I am actually impressed with this system as well....i think this may catch some folks by surprise

nobody is getting caught by surprise especially on this board. seriously a thunderstorm develops in the atlantic basin and the floater requests start and im not sure why 92L has a track straight into sofla according to some.

Well agreed. I see a North Carolina threat down the road though. I think Florida's opportunity to have an Atlantic based storm is gone for now...either the ridging is too strong, a system develops too far south, or a strong cold front weakens a ridge when a tropical system has the potential to develop at a latitude further north than Dean and Felix.

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

[ROCK]

yes I am actually impressed with this system as well....i think this may catch some folks by surprise

nobody is getting caught by surprise especially on this board. seriously a thunderstorm develops in the atlantic basin and the floater requests start and im not sure why 92L has a track straight into sofla according to some.

Well agreed. I see a North Carolina threat down the road though. I think Florida's opportunity to have an Atlantic based storm is gone for now...either the ridging is too strong, a system develops too far south, or a strong cold front weakens a ridge when a tropical system has the potential to develop at a latitude further north than Dean and Felix.

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

all I can say is, your about to get pounded with that comment.....good luck....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

yes I am actually impressed with this system as well....i think this may catch some folks by surprise

nobody is getting caught by surprise especially on this board. seriously a thunderstorm develops in the atlantic basin and the floater requests start and im not sure why 92L has a track straight into sofla according to some.

Well agreed. I see a North Carolina threat down the road though. I think Florida's opportunity to have an Atlantic based storm is gone for now...either the ridging is too strong, a system develops too far south, or a strong cold front weakens a ridge when a tropical system has the potential to develop at a latitude further north than Dean and Felix.

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Too early to say that florida is out of the woods...This is a threat
from the keys to the carolinas.

You're pretty brave to say that florida is safe all season.
Of course I hope that is right because hurricanes are bad...but its
too early for that kind of optimism my friend

[gatorcane]

destruction 92...it is way too early to say NC...

The threat to South Florida is real here...given the synoptics setting up.

Sure it is going to drift NW some but then once the ridge gets a hold of it to the north look for a WNW to W movement for several days. Many storms have done this. Andrew is a prime example. How about Frances, Jeanne, Katrina, the Okeechobie Hurricane of 1947, the Miami hurricane of 1926...most of those happened about this time in September.

The Key is this cold front. When will it get to Florida if it does??? That is the whole key here for a recurve.

[Derek Ortt]

91L is probably only 4-5 days away from a significant landfall. It will likely crash into the islands then and could impact the USA (VI and PR) before 92L does.

91L also looks better organized than does 92L. 91L already has a closed LLC, though broad while this does not

[KWT]

destruction92, I do agree with you but we can't rule out a Florida hit right now, indeed it would be amazingly foolish to do so, because as wxman57 even said himself the weakness may not open up in time for the system to move far enough north to miss Florida.
IMO this will probably track close to the Bahamas then lift NW but how fast it does this will determine the track IMO.

[windstorm99]

yes I am actually impressed with this system as well....i think this may catch some folks by surprise

nobody is getting caught by surprise especially on this board. seriously a thunderstorm develops in the atlantic basin and the floater requests start and im not sure why 92L has a track straight into sofla according to some.

Well agreed. I see a North Carolina threat down the road though. I think Florida's opportunity to have an Atlantic based storm is gone for now...either the ridging is too strong, a system develops too far south, or a strong cold front weakens a ridge when a tropical system has the potential to develop at a latitude further north than Dean and Felix.

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

I think Florida's opportunity to have an Atlantic based storm is gone for now.

Would like to see you back that up with some data suggesting why you feel that way.Also the threat for the entire florida coast is very real as it all depends on the set-up and the approaching cold front in the coming days.Its all about timeing with tropical cylones.

[KWT]

91L is probably only 4-5 days away from a significant landfall. It will likely crash into the islands then and could impact the USA (VI and PR) before 92L does.

91L also looks better organized than does 92L. 91L already has a closed LLC, though broad while this does not

91L will have a LLC very soon from what I've heard. As for 91L...thats for another threead, if it keeps heading west though and does hit the islands it will be pretty significant landfall, probably everybit as strong as Deans landfall.

By the way Derek, how strong do you think 92L could get?
Is it possible we'll have two very powerful hurricanes close to each other?

[Vortex]

NWS Miami Sun 230 pm:


EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
AND COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME WILL
KEEP THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER THE CWA FOR LATE THIS
WEEK...BUT THE POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

[fig]

So far the few models that have run for this thing look interesting as far as track. This looks like one that will depends on when it makes "that" turn to the NW and NNW as to where it goes in at Florida or NC (if it makes it that far of course)

[windstorm99]

Theres almost 0 wind shear between 92L and the SE coast.

[tropicsPR]

91L is probably only 4-5 days away from a significant landfall. It will likely crash into the islands then and could impact the USA (VI and PR) before 92L does.

91L also looks better organized than does 92L. 91L already has a closed LLC, though broad while this does not

Mr. Ortt . You think invest 91L will take a more northerly track than Dean and Felix ? So we in Puerto Rico should watch it more closely ? Thank You...

[Brent]

91L is probably only 4-5 days away from a significant landfall. It will likely crash into the islands then and could impact the USA (VI and PR) before 92L does.

91L also looks better organized than does 92L. 91L already has a closed LLC, though broad while this does not

I was thinking 91L would be a fish...

[MortisFL]

yes I am actually impressed with this system as well....i think this may catch some folks by surprise

nobody is getting caught by surprise especially on this board. seriously a thunderstorm develops in the atlantic basin and the floater requests start and im not sure why 92L has a track straight into sofla according to some.

Couldnt agree more. Ever since 04' and 05' its been nothing but speculation and what will happen next...

[canegrl04]

I don't know what I was expecting since its TWC,but on their last trop. update,the lady with the glasses didn't even mention the invest 91 and 92.Just gabriele straight to the rain in Texas

[MortisFL]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.[/quote]

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not as big as the monster to the East, but this is the most organized.


I predict this will hard to predict, as the Super-Mega cold front will be approaching the SE USA in a similar time frame as this. While, in my uneducated and unofficial opinion, the GOMEX West of MSY is in good shape, the timing on that front will be critical, and anyplace East of MSY, all the way around to the Carolinas (and if the trough pushing the front goes a tad negative tilt, maybe even further North) will be in the potential path.

Just kooking at the floater again, a little squished looking, but a definite rotation at some level.


Next question, is 91L, although rather distant, so big that when it develops it has an influence from behind on the steering of this?

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure how strong 92L will get

we need to have a LLC first and if one actually does develop, its location will be critical. If it takles its sweet time, of course it would be less intense than if it goes ahead and forms say tomorrow

[ROCK]

This year will be an interesting one for the central Gulf Coast and the Carolinas....Florida will have to wait IMO.

Isn't your season about over, Rock? Storms find a hard time making it that far west as the season progresses.[/quote]

TX has had quite active Septs in the pass 60+ years. It is also our busiest months over the those years. Our season doesn't really end until late Sept ealry Oct after a few good cold fronts......Rita was in Sept 18-26th.....mainly its about timing with the trofs and subsequent building of high pressure....

[cycloneye]