Invest 92L Near Leewards- Discussions & Images

[ROCK]

I'm not as impressed with this disturbance... we need more low levle convergence before this does anything.

I'm watching 91L more closely

you have to admit Derek that 92L is more consolidated than 91L attm. The TWO said a mid-level low and possible soon to be LLC could form. Now if I was betting man, I would go with 92L before 91L all day. Closer to organization IMO.....

[KWT]

Derek, maybe so but this system surely needs more attention then some wave at the very least 5-7 days away from any type of landfall?
Given it should enter a fairly low shear, high heat content set-up it probably should take off pretty readily I'd have thought be a real threat down the road. While of course I'm not saying 91L won't be a threat either its a might long way off yet, that also does need watching.

[wzrgirl1]

yes I am actually impressed with this system as well....i think this may catch some folks by surprise

[fci]

Go to talking tropics forum and vote in the poll of which invest will be a TD first.

Maybe the poll shoud be which Invest gets more thread pages!!

[wzrgirl1]

you are going to have a lot of people from south florida freaking out about this one.....this one will get more pages....i guarantee you that

[HURAKAN]

Max Mayfield may get a lot of work hours this week!!!

[fci]

This forecast is not endorsed by storm2k and should not be used by anyone. Refer to the NHC for the only source of tropical information.

With favorable wind shear and minimal dry air already in place, I give this a 100% chance of becoming a hurricane within the next 5 days. In fact, I would not be surprised to see this become a major hurricane. The trend in 2007 has been west, west, west. Look for this trend to continue with this system and slam into the United States as the first hurricane since Wilma of 2005 to make landfall. This has the potential to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane approaching the USA.

Wow, not sure I would ever endorse a 100% chance for anything.
Also, the Cat 5 speculation is a bit extreme given that this is just still an Invest.

Maybe if JB predicts a 970; like Gabby; we'll get a 1006, the reality!

Hope you are wrong.

[Buck]

Max Mayfield may get a lot of work hours this week!!!

[windstorm99]

Max Mayfield may get a lot of work hours this week!!!

You can count on bryan norcross being on the air if this becomes a significant threat.

Which one do i watch lol bryan vs max!

[flwxwatcher]

Here's a question:

Can 92L's forward motion affect its future possible path? I think the probability for each scenario depends on 92L's forward motion. The model guidance has been underestimating the strength of low-level ridges. I would think it could gain some forward speed, especially because of the 500 mbar pattern over the next ~48-72 hours. Some models may initialize 92L on a slower forward motion, which could indicate a bias in the short term solutions. This factor would affect the long term outcome. Do you believe it could reach ~70W earlier than indicated by some models?

Current TPC discussion notes forward motion near ~10 kts (15 mph).

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND
IT COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Look at the following loop. Do you believe a faster forward motion is plausible when it slips beneath the trough?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on..._ge_14km_visir2

Anyone can feel free to answer my question. Thanks!

That will be the 64 Dollar question.How strong the ridge North of 92L and 92L's forward speed and the timing and strength of the incoming trough are all questions that are to early to answer and pinpoint any potential U.S. landfall other then to say People along the SE Coast should keep an eye on the progress of this system. As we have seen this year with past storms it will take the a few days for the pattern to become a little clearer on to where 92L will be heading IMHO..

[JonathanBelles]

Max Mayfield may get a lot of work hours this week!!!

You can count on bryan norcross being on the air if this becomes a significant threat.

Which one do i watch lol bryan vs max!

I'd be watching both side by side

[Fego]

I splitted my monitor with both floaters
Anyone... ex 98L has to do with this invest? and, was this wave-now-invest the one that Bastardi predicted it will be near Florida this week?... thanks!

[CaneCharmer]

With the ridge solidly setting up and the lack of shear ahead of this system, I think it's safe to say that the Florida Keys to West Palm Beach better have some preparations in order for the arrival of Humberto. Those sst's are hotter than a fresh pan of lasagna right out of the oven. IMO, this is a recipe for another Andrew-esque scenario. Time to gas up the gennie's!!!!

[Zardoz]

...ex 98L has to do with this invest?

I thought so, but wxman57 says no.

[windstorm99]

With the ridge solidly setting up and the lack of shear ahead of this system, I think it's safe to say that the Florida Keys to West Palm Beach better have some preparations in order for the arrival of Humberto. Those sst's are hotter than a fresh pan of lasagna right out of the oven. IMO, this is a recipe for another Andrew-esque scenario. Time to gas up the gennie's!!!!

Honestly i tend to agree with you on some of your thoughts....But its still a wait see situation.

[flwxwatcher]

:wink: I splitted my monitor with both floaters
Anyone... ex 98L has to do with this invest? and, was this wave-now-invest the one that Bastardi predicted it will be near Florida this week?... thanks!

Yes.. this is the wave J.B. has been saying would be near Florida this week. Of course that is still yet to be determined.

[destruction92]

With the ridge solidly setting up and the lack of shear ahead of this system, I think it's safe to say that the Florida Keys to West Palm Beach better have some preparations in order for the arrival of Humberto. Those sst's are hotter than a fresh pan of lasagna right out of the oven. IMO, this is a recipe for another Andrew-esque scenario. Time to gas up the gennie's!!!!

I think you are being a bit bullish on 92L...Derek Ortt is not very impressed with it either.
Even if it does develop, the synoptics are very different from 2005 when there was a dominant subtropical ridge in place...current synoptics suggests that a significant weakness in the ridge WILL OCCUR.

To add to that, 92L is being sheared and lifted somewhat northward to a weak trough over the central Atlantic extending from Bermuda in an arc back towards the Cape Verde Islands.

With these signs, I would strongly suggest that it is way too early to hit that "panic button" in Florida.

[jlauderdal]

yes I am actually impressed with this system as well....i think this may catch some folks by surprise

nobody is getting caught by surprise especially on this board. seriously a thunderstorm develops in the atlantic basin and the floater requests start and im not sure why 92L has a track straight into sofla according to some.

[fci]

On top of everthing else, 92L looks to be passing north of Hebert Box...so, if this was to affect Florida (unlikely IMO), it would be a central Florida threat...right now though, 92L's convection is on the decrease and who knows, maybe tomorrow our attention will shift to 91L (which could be sucking moisture from 92L).

Note that the corollary to the Hebert Box theory doesn't exist. Paul Hebert found that the majority of major hurricanes that have hit south Florida have passed through this region. However, just because a system misses the box to the north doesn't mean it's not likely to hit south Florida. In this case, there may be a very strong ridge north of the disturbance until it reaches the Bahamas. South Florida is NOT out of the woods by any means, nor is the Gulf.

Wxman I don't like when you say South Florida not out of the woods or the Gulf...

things getting interesting already as there is a stir starting to happen here in Palm Beach Country down through Miami-Dade and Monroe.

Royal and Coconut palms blowing in a nice ESE wind at 10-15mph today. Deep Atlantic moisture is flowing through the Southern half of Florida this afternoon....

What is a "stir"?

[MiamiensisWx]

With the ridge solidly setting up and the lack of shear ahead of this system, I think it's safe to say that the Florida Keys to West Palm Beach better have some preparations in order for the arrival of Humberto. Those sst's are hotter than a fresh pan of lasagna right out of the oven. IMO, this is a recipe for another Andrew-esque scenario. Time to gas up the gennie's!!!!

I think you are being a bit bullish on 92L...Derek Ortt is not very impressed with it either.
Even if it does develop, the synoptics are very different from 2005 when there was a dominant subtropical ridge in place...current synoptics suggests that a significant weakness in the ridge WILL OCCUR.

To add to that, 92L is being sheared and lifted somewhat northward to a weak trough over the central Atlantic extending from Bermuda in an arc back towards the Cape Verde Islands.

With these signs, I would strongly suggest that it is way too early to hit that "panic button" in Florida.

Don't look at the cloud motion. This system does not have a defined LLC, and we need to wait for some development. Look at the wave axis' motion. The TPC says it is moving W:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND
IT COULD BRING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/091530.shtml

nobody is getting caught by surprise especially on this board. seriously a thunderstorm develops in the atlantic basin and the floater requests start and im not sure why 92L has a track straight into sofla according to some.

I agree. Honestly, everyone in my area (south FL) has been very aware over the past few years. We're way ahead (in terms of preparation) of the '90s, so I'm really puzzled about gatorcane's "complacency" comments. Let's remain patient before we take shots at a "risk" area. Everyone along the Southeast coast should monitor this system.