Tropical Depression GABRIELLE:Discussions and Images

[Ed Mahmoud]

Actually, if it stays weak I'm fairly sure we won't mind. We could really use the rain (along with other parts of VA and pretty much all of NC).

Now, if it strengthens, THEN we'll hope the rainbands stay away.

I hope Richmond gets a good solid rainband, just not before midnight.

I doubt you'll see as much as a single cumulus cloud from Gabrielle.

I hope not. I'm in Houston.

[OuterBanker]

BTW, I see someone was referring to 98l. No, the convection now showing up around 50 was that giant swirl the emerged from Africa recently. The one that had absoultely no convection. Again, seems nothing happens this year until it gets far enough west. Could be a gulf problem this comming week.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB just posted that the 970 mb may be overdone, and he now agrees with NHC forecast on STS Gabrielle.

He has three more 'horses' that may be headed for the starting gate. The one in the Gulf looks doubtful, but the ones at 55º and about 30º sure are starting to look like thoroughbreds/

[wxman57]

I doubt you'll see as much as a single cumulus cloud from Gabrielle.

You're right, but hey, I can dream.

And this is pretty much the only -removed- you'll ever see me do, so mark this date in history. I would not be surprised to see the dry air choke off the remaining convection over the next day or so, though there is some modest outflow from the little convection that's there.

Meanwhile, here in Houston, I'd like to just see ONE SINGLE DAY without pouring rain. 15" over the last 2 weeks is a bit much. It's pouring now. My moss is growing moss on it.

[cheezyWXguy]

I doubt you'll see as much as a single cumulus cloud from Gabrielle.

You're right, but hey, I can dream.

And this is pretty much the only -removed- you'll ever see me do, so mark this date in history. I would not be surprised to see the dry air choke off the remaining convection over the next day or so, though there is some modest outflow from the little convection that's there.

Meanwhile, here in Houston, I'd like to just see ONE SINGLE DAY without pouring rain. 15" over the last 2 weeks is a bit much. It's pouring now. My moss is growing moss on it.

lol...where is all ur rain coming from? up in NTX we havent had any rain since tuesday

[srainhoutx]

I doubt you'll see as much as a single cumulus cloud from Gabrielle.

You're right, but hey, I can dream.

And this is pretty much the only -removed- you'll ever see me do, so mark this date in history. I would not be surprised to see the dry air choke off the remaining convection over the next day or so, though there is some modest outflow from the little convection that's there.

Meanwhile, here in Houston, I'd like to just see ONE SINGLE DAY without pouring rain. 15" over the last 2 weeks is a bit much. It's pouring now. My moss is growing moss on it.

Sorry for being off topic, but have you seen the 12z CMC wxman57? Guess the rain "may" stay around a while.

[jasons2k]

We've had a lot of posts not related to Gabrielle. Let's please stay on topic.

[windstorm99]

There's no way this thing is going to intensify with the LLC running away.

[RL3AO]

You can really see that N jog.

[windstorm99]

You can really see that N jog.

Yea the north jog of a naked swirl.

[wxman57]

Yep, this is more than just a wobble or "erratic movement", it's moving northward. True, it cannot intensify unless convection builds over the center. Recon found a max FL wind of 39 kts, I believe, but latest pass was 35kts. That's really not enough to call it a TS, but it'll be kept as a TS on the next advisory, which it should. I keep hearing rumors of decreasing shear tonight that might allow for convection to build around the center, but I'll believe it when I see it. I'll be extremely generous and indicate a pocket of 60 mph winds east of the center tomorrow afternoon, but that'll be over water, anyway. Outer Banks may not see very much from Gabrielle, not even much rain. Because once that southeast shear lets up and Gabrielle begins turning, those squalls northwest of the center should shift to the northeast side (i.e., offshore).

Hope you guys get at least a little rain tomorrow. Here, take some of mine.

[KWT]

I'm not so sure it'll get much stronger wxman57 before it passes NC and the outer banks, time probably isn't on its side unless that convection can re-build over the convection pretty quickly.

The one thing that may be interesting is for a breif time as it first interacts with the jet it may start to undergo Baroclinic development which at least for the first 6-9hrs may be masked by the convective apperance and I wouldn't be surprised to see this system gain an extra 5-10kts before turning fully extra-tropical though to be fair the jet is pretty zonal and flat way off to the north so there probably won't be much interaction before its already EXT.

[txwatcher91]

I personally hope it stays sheared so we can get some rain this way. You know the drought is getting bad when you wish for a subtropical/tropical system to get sheared just so you can get rain...

[Thunder44]

I can see on water vapor imagery, that the large trof approaching into the east coast is already eroding along east side quickly. The trof has yet to really back the flow from the SW to the NE over the eastern seaboard, but there's enough weakeness of north of the storm to allow it to escape a little further, hence perhaps the northward movement. Although It looks more like a general NNW movement now, than north:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[txwatcher91]

It also appears that shear has begun to lessen because the LLC is moving towards the convection and the convection is beginning to backbuild as of 3:40.

[Sanibel]

The reason Gabrielle isn't stacking is because it is being gut-punched by a ULL to its SW.

[Tommedic]

Is it my imagination or is center seeming to regroup to south and west, based on this radar pic? By the way, have been wrong before.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ar_floater

[bjackrian]

Perhaps a dumb question, but is it possible that as the convection and low level circulation move away from each other that a new low level circulation could form underneath the heavy convection?

[Tom8]

last visible view before night

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[chadtm80]

Should expect a track shift at 5pm.. Check image below (green dot is actual center)