I have been checking the satellite loops, models, and reading the forecast discussions. The weather map today looks like late September with a front slowly pushing offshore and a large area of distributed weather in the NW Caribbean headed NW.
Models diverge on the eventual path of a possible tropical system/broad low pressure.
I expect to see the entire system move WNW/NW into the S Central and SW GOM next week as the weak front and associated SW shear fade away and the Bermuda ridging begins to overtake the GOM.
Will it develop into a tropical system?
Way to early to state but there will be alot of convection and lowering pressures over very warm water.
GOM Development?
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GOM Development?
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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cycloneye
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It will be a big rain producer for many people at the gulf coast but about tropical development unless a true surface low develops and convection consolidates in an area and persist not the pulses we are seeing up and down no development is expected.
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IMO we could have a player later this weekend. Already have a mid level circulation and could see a low level circulation form later this weekend. I am quite surprised on how well this system has held up under some extremely hostile upper level winds. Guess time will tell if Mother Nature wants to play. Never the less, if no development happens you are correct cycloneeye.....tons and tons of moisture could be heading to areas that already have seen more than their fair share of liquid sunshine. [/b]
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wx247
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Whether or not this develops remains to be seen, but it seems the NHC thinks it has a least a little bit of a chance in the next couple of days as conditions become more favorable.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Thankfully, it doesn't look like it'll be spreading moisture into the Northeast and Middle Atlantic... where we've had our fair share of rain and finally we've been drying out the last couple of days with highs in the 90s... hopefully it'll stay dry, but not TOO dry!
I'll be keeping my eye on this system and I sure hope it doesn't bring ANYMORE rain to Florida, where they DON'T need it at all.
I'll be keeping my eye on this system and I sure hope it doesn't bring ANYMORE rain to Florida, where they DON'T need it at all.
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