Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Buck]

If they felt watches were necessary, they'd upgrade the system.

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html
Is the convection to the west being pulled toward the center, or is something else happening there?

[storms in NC]

From this WV loop you can see there is still some sheer and it is trying to get it's self together. It is growing with every loop. It is getting moister from the gulf. JIMO I don't think we will have more than a TD or TS off the NC coast. But it is a waitting game. I hate waitting

[Nimbus]

Maybe the NHC was actually considering the split scenario in the Maryland discussion? By 10 PM tonight we should know if the 74w LLC is going to dominate and what the longer term motion is. Could save a lot of people that pre storm shopping rush.

[Thunder44]

I think NHC wants to start with a good initial position for the first forecast track, and they are waiting for recon find a good center to fix on.

[miamicanes177]

43kts FL winds in this bad boy

EDIT: I can't believe I got excited over that after Dean and Felix

[MGC]

There is plenty of time to upgrade and post warnings as it is still a couple of days off the coast. At the current rate of organization, I expect an upgrade in the next 12 hours. Should be a TS at its nearest approach to land...MGC

[Brent]

43 kt! Hello Gabrielle.

[BigA]

Let us not forget that this thing, whatever it may be, is going to pass over the gulf stream wherever it goes, so it will likely have a significant shot at intensifying before it gets to the coast.

[RL3AO]

It looks like a 30 kt TD now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Buck]

So, will we have a special advisory before 8, an 8 o'clock advisory or will they just wait until 11pm?

[senorpepr]

Might be a touch off topic, but is it actually impossible to issue tropical storm watches without an identified TD/TS? I would think that it would make a lot of sense in some circumstances to do that for an invest that is likely to become a cyclone, has not become a cyclone yet, and is likely to hit land before long. That might be confusing, but I'm just wondering if it's against NHC policy to do that....

The NHC can't/won't do that.

What you are referring to are gale watches.

[Derek Ortt]

I hve never even understood why TS watches are needed

Do we really need 36-48 hours of notice for 35KT winds? 135KT, of course, but not 35KT

[erickjansenius]

The sysTem looks a loT of organizated right know. I Think it gonna be gabrielle, but, Hurricane???? I donT think so. we have no still a good center. It is too close to land, it has no enough time to developing.

[hiflyer]

Sitting at work watching Max Mayfield on local 10 news down here in SoFla....interesting but overall impression I got was nothing big.

[Alacane2]

Might be a touch off topic, but is it actually impossible to issue tropical storm watches without an identified TD/TS? I would think that it would make a lot of sense in some circumstances to do that for an invest that is likely to become a cyclone, has not become a cyclone yet, and is likely to hit land before long. That might be confusing, but I'm just wondering if it's against NHC policy to do that....

The NHC can't/won't do that.

What you are referring to are gale watches.

Have any of you seen this below? Just wondering if you think the coastal NWS offices may begin issuing Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches and Warnings in the future.

Code: Select all

BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AUGUST 1 2007 AND CONTINUING THROUGH JULY 31
2008...NWS IS SEEKING FEEDBACK ON AN EXPERIMENTAL MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE PRODUCT. THIS PRODUCT IS INTENDED TO BETTER INFORM
MARINERS OF MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS AND SERVE AS A DEDICATED LONG
DURATION MARINE WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY PRODUCT.

CURRENTLY NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES /WFO/ ISSUE MARINE
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THROUGH HEADLINES AND VALID TIME EVENT
CODE /VTEC/ STRINGS CONTAINED IN THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
/CWF/...THE NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST /NSH/ AND THE GREAT LAKES
OPEN LAKE FORECAST /GLF/. 

THE MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE PRODUCTS WILL PROVIDE THE MARINE
COMMUNITY WITH MORE SPECIFICITY AND VITAL MARINE HAZARD
INFORMATION...PATTERNED AFTER THE WINTER WEATHER
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY /WSW/ PRODUCTS AND THE NON-PRECIPITATION
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY /NPW/ PRODUCTS.

THIS EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED BY PARTICIPATING COASTAL
AND GREAT LAKES WFOS FOR THE FOLLOWING SUITE OF MARINE
WATCH...WARNING AND ADVISORY EVENTS:
   
   [b]HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM WATCH/WARNING[/b]
   HURRICANE FORCE WIND WATCH/WARNING
   STORM WATCH/WARNING
   GALE WATCH/WARNING
   HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH/WARNING
   HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WATCH/WARNING
   FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
   BRISK WIND ADVISORY
   LOW WATER ADVISORY
   DENSE FOG ADVISORY
   DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY
   ASHFALL ADVISORY     
   
THE PRODUCT TYPE LINE IN THE MASS NEWS DISSEMINATOR HEADER BLOCK
WILL BE /MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE/.  USERS MUST ADD THE FOLLOWING
PRODUCT HEADERS TO THEIR COMMUNICATIONS DATABASES TO RECEIVE THE
PRODUCTS FROM THE INITIAL PARTICIPATING GROUP OF WFOS:

WFO              WMO HEADING   AWIPS ID 
   
BUFFALO NEW YORK        WHUS71 KBUF   MWWBUF
CARIBOU MAINE           WHUS71 KCAR   MWWCAR
DETROIT MICHIGAN        WHUS73 KDTX   MWWDTX
HONOLULU HAWAII           WHHW70 PHFO   MWWHFO
MEDFORD OREGON           WHUS76 KMFR   MWWMFR
MOBILE ALABAMA           WHUS74 KMOB   MWWMOB
TAMPA FLORIDA            WHUS72 KTBW   MWWTBW


Link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/notification ... essage.txt

[erickjansenius]

It looks like a 30 kt TD now.

Yes, i agree with you. TD-Seven is here!!!!! I am excited. But there is a lot of things to happen before Gabrielle. By sunday's morning I wait peak intensity.

[Nimbus]

Where would the NHC put up warnings? They think the storm is heading WNW but as soon as they upgrade it they are going to have to be more precise than that. The upper level winds are kind of complex with the trough and the ridge and maybe an ULL. It would really look bad if the NHC issued Storm warnings for the Carolinas and Gabrielle ended up rolling across Florida.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If they find a well defined LLC, it will go right to tropical storm, because of the 43 knot flight level winds.