Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[MWatkins]

Watches will likely go up as soon as they initiate advisories. Recon is still about 1 hour away...but chances are pretty good that they will start advisories at 5PM EDT this afternoon.

MW

[Brent]

From all I have seen it is to go out to sea. Am I right? A few TV Mets said it would stay off shore. Some one going to bust?

I asked before what time would they put up watches and warnings.

Most models have it coming ashore, not going out to sea, but models have been wrong(Felix wasn't supposed to hit Nicaragua). As long as it's moving west the chances of it recurving and missing the U.S. are decreasing however.

I would expect watches up maybe this afternoon, certainly no later than tomorrow morning(I'm a little unclear when landfall will be, I've heard Sunday and Monday both).

FWIW... I'm thinking a Cat 1 hurricane into NC(Wilmington area perhaps?), but I'm not ruling anything out. Could be weaker, could be stronger.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[storms in NC]

Ophelia was Morehead City. And I was in La then helping out down there when she came though.

[wxman57]

When they put out a forcast track and it will come to me then I will put up things but not before hand

My track has it just about right over you late Sunday afternoon with 60-65 mph winds.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Latest:

Looks like 2 Skeletons face to face..LOL

[storms in NC]

I am having my daughter to come up here to my house. She just had heart surgery wed. They live in Leland in a trailer. Her and the boys would be better off here either way so I can look after her.
I am not far from Wilm

[storms in NC]

When they put out a forcast track and it will come to me then I will put up things but not before hand

My track has it just about right over you late Sunday afternoon with 60-65 mph winds.

Thanks Come on rain. My turups and Musturd need water

[chadtm80]

Current Recon Plane Location:



Posting a map for each ob in the Recon Ob thread if you wish to keep track

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[storms in NC]

it is just about to wrap up nicely

[PhillyWX]

From all I have seen it is to go out to sea. Am I right? A few TV Mets said it would stay off shore. Some one going to bust?

I asked before what time would they put up watches and warnings.

Most models have it coming ashore, not going out to sea, but models have been wrong(Felix wasn't supposed to hit Nicaragua). As long as it's moving west the chances of it recurving and missing the U.S. are decreasing however.

I would expect watches up maybe this afternoon, certainly no later than tomorrow morning(I'm a little unclear when landfall will be, I've heard Sunday and Monday both).

FWIW... I'm thinking a Cat 1 hurricane into NC(Wilmington area perhaps?), but I'm not ruling anything out. Could be weaker, could be stronger.

This is my opinion and only my opinion and not an official forecast...

http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&g ... =addr&om=1

That's my call for landfall at this point and my confidence is VERY low...it could be as far S as Myrtle and as far NE as the Morehead City area.

[tallbunch]

I have a better chance of winning the lottery then it coming my way.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think we all have to agree Recon is going have to find 2 distict LLC's at the moment..Looks very Obvious right now on sat.

[cpdaman]

is the BLOB of convection to the west part of the circulation OR is it the backside of the ULL flaring up?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[NC George]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but having lived in Wilmington my entire life (all 20 years of it) and having seen storms like Fran, Bonnie, Floyd and the likes come straight for us when they were labeled as OBX storms,

Also being a long-time NC resident (not all my my years, but about 25 years of it) all three of the above named storms were initially pegged as SC storms. The watches/warnings gradually shifted N, and they became NC storms. Storms initially pegged for Wilmington seem to end up being OBX storms. As a result, the hurricanes I watch most closely for are those pegged for a Myrtle Beach landfall. Cape Romain just doesn't stick out to catch the storms like Capes Fear, Lookout and Hatteras do.

[schurricaneinfo]

As a resident of NE SC....I can tell you that the forecast track always brings the storm to the NC/SC border and at the last minute it makes that northward turn up into NC. I think there's a magnet that pulls it that way. If someone has some old storm plots of past NC/SC storms, I would love for you to post them.

[Thunder44]

I think we all have to agree Recon is going have to find 2 distict LLC's at the moment..Looks very Obvious right now on sat.

I only see one LLC near 30N and 71W

[x-y-no]

I think we all have to agree Recon is going have to find 2 distict LLC's at the moment..Looks very Obvious right now on sat.

Ummm ... no I don't agree. I only see one LLC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have a better chance of winning the lottery then it coming my way.

You'll still get very strong winds being so close to where it may go NC. LOL
you'll get plenty of action from it I'm sure.