Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

my hats off to JB and the crew at Accuweather!

They didn't do anything out of the normal. If you have to salute anyone you should also salute the NHC that was supporting development since the first time. Most pro-Mets and amateurs, like me, in the forum supported development based on the forecasted prognosis and always reminded the "dead posters" that a vigorous LLC was still very much present and that conditions were going to become more favorable. It was not time to just throw the towel. We should learn from this, not necessarily "eat crow."

When (IN)Accuwx gets something that had not been mentioned by the NHC or anyone else, then you should spend your time saluting them.

[chadtm80]

2.0 is usually enough for classification, isn't it?

They wont classify bases on that output.. Especially since they are going to be in the system with in hours to check it out for themselves anyway.. However it does support the fact that the system is "starting" to get its act together

[Brent]

I think recon will find Gabrielle. Seriously. It's hard to believe looking at it that last night it looked very close to not being an invest any longer, and now this.

But Luis is right, they will not upgrade til recon gets there. It's only a few hours anyway...

[Bane]

2.0 is usually enough for classification, isn't it?

They wont classify bases on that output.. Especially since they are going to be in the system with in hours to check it out for themselves anyway.. However it does support the fact that the system is "starting" to get its act together

yep, i know they'll wait for recon. just wanted to make sure that under normal conditions, would this be enough to upgrade a system, say if it was between africa and the islands?

[seahawkjd]

Well, since the boards are more active I'll ask one more time. Is the actual low still on the edge of the convection or under it now? Thanks

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Turn off all images except 279-282.

Really impressive! That's less than an hour.

Quoting myself n case people missed it. Sorry if I'm being overly newbish but in those 4 frames you can see the storms starting to wrap around. It's the most impressive view I've seen of any storm.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[Chacor]

2.0 is usually enough for classification, isn't it?

They wont classify bases on that output.. Especially since they are going to be in the system with in hours to check it out for themselves anyway.. However it does support the fact that the system is "starting" to get its act together

yep, i know they'll wait for recon. just wanted to make sure that under normal conditions, would this be enough to upgrade a system, say if it was between africa and the islands?

Not with just one set of numbers. Probably they would if TAFB was also at T1.5 or T2.0, and it met the criteria for a tropical cyclone.

[storms in NC]

When do you think warnings will go up. Sat?

[Frank2]

I was looking about 20 minutes ago - hard to say, but, it if there is a true LLC center, it looks to be just southwest of the convection that is on the east side of the system...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[PhillyWX]

Well, since the boards are more active I'll ask one more time. Is the actual low still on the edge of the convection or under it now? Thanks

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/vis-l.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

Convection is wrapping around the low but the low itself is not yet under the convection.

[Buck]

I think recon will find Gabrielle. Seriously. It's hard to believe looking at it that last night it looked very close to not being an invest any longer, and now this.

But Luis is right, they will not upgrade til recon gets there. It's only a few hours anyway...

I concur completely.

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,post those good images that you bring every half an hour.

[chadtm80]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Turn off all images except 279-282.

Really impressive! That's less than an hour.

Quoting myself n case people missed it. Sorry if I'm being overly newbish but in those 4 frames you can see the storms starting to wrap around. It's the most impressive view I've seen of any storm.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Thanks tolakram.. Looks good and this will actually help to answer the question above your post about where the LLC is compared to the convection..

Run this loop.. http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html
put checks in box 277, 278, 286,287,288 and run the loop.. You will see the convection on NE side but starting to cycle into middle of circulation

[carversteve]

Yes it is really looking good..it may jump right to a ts...and it did not take it long to get this healthy...thats why i asked the ? way back...what would keep this thing from blowing up..except for maybe a landfall..no expert..just curious

[seahawkjd]

Yeah I was just about to say that. Thanks, the loop is impressive and clearly shows where the low pressure is.

[Sanibel]

LLC relocated under eastern main convection center.

[BUD]

How fast is it moving??and where to the N,S,W,ect just got up and have no idea whats going on.

[tolakram]

The checks go to the omit images, so just the opposite. That confused me to while I was trying to figure it out. Oh, and slow it way down.

[seahawkjd]

Ok as soon as I thought I had it now I'm confused. Is it the swirl from the loop thats right on the edge or is it under the eastern storms like Sanibel just said?

[chadtm80]

The checks go to the omit images, so just the opposite. That confused me to while I was trying to figure it out. Oh, and slow it way down.

yes I took that into consideration in my post