Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[CrazyC83]

Latest QuikSCAT - http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

Uncontaminated peak is 30 kt. Looks to be near 28.5°N 70.3°W.

[weatherwoman]

my hats off to JB and the crew at Accuweather!

[ConvergenceZone]

I be chomping down on crow on this one...Although I thought it would develop. initially, it just didn't look like it would survive. I think it had just enough left of it
when conditions improved. I thought there wouldn't be ANYTHING left, which is why I didn't think it would develop. Let's just hope for a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, something to give NC a much needed drink of water.

[seahawkjd]

Well all, I think after this one is over I'll take up a calmer and more predictable hobby, day trading... But seriously, are we getting the low completely under the storms now or is it still too sheared?

[Epsilon_Fan]

This thing sure got its act together overnight! Looks like the little swirl that could is doing it.

[SouthFLTropics]

[quote="seahawkjd"]Well all, I think after this one is over I'll take up a calmer and more predictable hobby, day trading...

[jrod]

Calling it -removed- but looking at the upper level steering I do think it is possible of this heading due west, not turning north until the next trough affects it. I do see what looks like a north compenent now but they may just be from the center and storm activity reforming to the north. We all want to see the NHC's forecast.

[Derek Ortt]

looks like I was too soon to question myself

The UL is getting out of the way and outflow is expanding

Figures this happens... I was planning to watch ND tomorrow night

[BensonTCwatcher]

Things of concern to watch (besides track): The banding on the W side looks good i.e. little shear

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Moisture feeding from the south ( a pretty good channel of it too)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Lastly, the ULL to the SW that had this thing pinned down may now may now provide west side outflow channel while the flow aloft to the NE could provide one on the other side. Maybe that is how this could get to sub 970mb so quickly. Have to watch and see

[cpdaman]

well watching the the weather channel this morning (with no access to pc)

they said this system could possibly go due west into GA or SC

so anyone from jacksonville north should pay close attention, especially since this thing could become a formidable hurricane JB says sub 970 so while intensity forecasts are troublesome to say the least Prepare for the worst

[SouthFLTropics]

Figures this happens... I was planning to watch ND tomorrow night[/quote]


After last weeks ND performance you may get better entertainment value from watching 99L!

[DESTRUCTION5]

looks like I was too soon to question myself

The UL is getting out of the way and outflow is expanding

Figures this happens... I was planning to watch ND tomorrow night

No loss there...ND will lose by 3 TD's...and thats not Tropical depressions..

[Frank2]

Figures this happens... I was planning to watch ND tomorrow night

Well, I wouldn't worry, as long as Mike Sidel doesn't broadcast from the stadium parking lot!!!

[cpdaman]

Derek what is the confidence you have in the steering flow turning this to the NW BEFORE it reaches the coast

and secondly do you see any scenario where this could move WSW

[Frank2]

By the way - hopefully I did not say that this would never develop (don't think I did, so, don't go searching - LOL), but, I find it's wiser (as much as someone who is as clueless) to use words such as "possibly", "perhaps", "might", etc., since only the One who permits the weather to evolve as it does, knows the actual outcome...

[seahawkjd]

Latest, seems to be filling in from the north from that initial band that moved to the west and north.

[Brent]

Ummmmm I'll take my crow fried. Sheesh.

It's FINALLY developing! I almost don't believe it.

[PhillyWX]

looks like I was too soon to question myself

You weren't. Considering how terrible it looked everyone had every right to say the chances weren't as good. It's not as bad as one meteorologist in my area who flip-flopped completely in his forecast (for the wrong reasons) saying it would not hit the East Coast because of high pressure off of the SE coast (despite nothing to suggest that) to saying on the Thursday night news that it would be a potential 1/2 hit because of the 6z GFDL ran on Thursday morning!

I think when we deal in absolutes is when we run into problems with forecasting...saying it's going to do this or it will do that instead of what COULD happen if X and Y pan out.

[Frank2]

I think when we deal in absolutes is when we run into problems with forecasting...saying it's going to do this or it will do that instead of what COULD happen if X and Y pan out.

Too true - that's also true of life in general...

Certainly, this circulation would get the persistence award (if there was one to give to spinning air)...

LOL

[seahawkjd]

The persistence award, given to Invest 99L for showing that even a naked swirl of air can keep on going.

*Disclaimer: By accepting this award 99L agrees to perform community service to the coast of NC in the form of beneficial rains and agrees not to cause flooding, wind damage, storm surge, etc.