Extended Model outlook and discussion...June 26th, 2003

[Stormsfury]

GFS

The GFS is continuing to suggest a potential heavy rainfall event from the Panhandle/Western Florida up through the Carolinas ... and continues to develop a low and move it more northward, making a landfall, so to speak over the Western Florida Panhandle ...

QPF 60 hr Total (42-96hr timeframe) from the 18z Run - 6/26/03
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

Well interestingly enough, it shows a second feature in the BOC later in the time frame ...and also, another feature, a tropical development at 10ºN, 38ºW, turning NNW by the end of the timeframe. More on the overall prgnostic discussion below ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi? ... =Animation

Canadian

The Canadian model has jumped on the idea of developing a low in the North Central Gulf and moving it NNW towards MS/AL .. whereas, yesterday at this time, the Canadian had NOTHING ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... =Animation

NOGAPS

The NOGAPS wants to develop a feature as it moves off the West Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula but not as closed and much farther west than yesterday's 12z run ... more supportive of last night's EURO actually ...

UKMET

Nothing at all ... except building the Bermuda High further westward, more in line of what the EURO last night suggested ...

ECMWF - or EURO

Still waiting on this model run...only updated to Day 2 at this writing.

At it stands right now, I still believe the GFS is suffering from convective feedbacks and a little overdone with its idea of tropical development, but, at the same time, I will not totally rule it out, either ... other models are beginning to harp on the idea ... but as per HPC, the models, in fact, may be picking the wrong area overall to develop ...

Right now, the GFS/Canadian/NOGAPS are supporting some idea of a tropical origined system, while the UKMET/JMA do not ... and will post later on the ECMWF model run ...

SF

[Rainband]

Thanks Stormfury!!!

[Steve]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... ight=ecmwf

I've got the surface plot off of accuweather for the 12z run.
Steve

[Steve]

[Stormsfury]

Steve, I think those are old maps ...

The PSC only has the ECMWF (EURO) out to Day 4 at this posting ... and it's showing a 1010 mb low just off the Southeastern Coast of TX ...

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

[Steve]

Deleted....

[Steve]

Lemme go back and check the run:

>>LATEST RUN IS 26-JUN-2003 12Z COMPLETED AT 01:44 GMT

And so it is.

I gotta go find my old link to the European. I had a great link on my old PC, but it crapped out.

The one on their official site (EUROPEAN) shows the low hanging out in the Houston-Lake Charles area for a few days. Here's Wed's run.



Steve

[Stormsfury]

Just looked at the 12z ETA out at 84 hrs and it supports the ECMWF thinking ... the 12z ETA places a 1012 mb low just SE of the TX/LA border at the 84hr timeframe ... a lot of times with the ETA/ECMWF supporting one another this solution becomes more and more IMO, the right one.

FWIW, I generally prefer the ECMWF model over any model when making mid-range prognostic outlooks and based so far with what I'm seeing the last couple of days ... I'm becoming more inclined that the ECWMF/ETA and the NOGAPS to some degree are onto something ... the last two nights, the ECMWF has been very consistent up to this point, the GFS I still think is suffering convective feedback ... and IMO, way too heavy with the QPF's and too far east ... and I'm pretty inclined to think the EURO is onto something as well.

The Canadian is now onto the idea of a low, further westward then than the GFS, but further east than the EURO/NOGAPS ... and quite possibly the Canadian will also shift westward ... The EURO is empathic on building the Bermuda High Westward, and at the same time, the UKMET has also suggested such ... and it hasn't deviated much at all either ...

A very complex situation, nonetheless, the next few days ...

Edit: Day 5 is out and the 1010mb low is still just off the SE coast of TX on the EURO ... also, a very weak low? of 1019mb over SE Virginia ...

SF

[Stormsfury]

Lemme go back and check the run:

>>LATEST RUN IS 26-JUN-2003 12Z COMPLETED AT 01:44 GMT

And so it is.

I gotta go find my old link to the European. I had a great link on my old PC, but it crapped out.

The one on their official site (EUROPEAN) shows the low hanging out in the Houston-Lake Charles area for a few days. Here's Wed's run.



Steve

The ETA is suggesting the exact same thing, Steve ... almost exactly...
An old rule of forecasting ... take this solution to the bank....

The EURO hasn't deviated from last night's solution in the least bit ... has a low just SE of the Southeastern TX coast on Days 4 and 5 ... and the ETA is giving some support to this as well, just a little faster with the low near the TX/LA border at 84hr (12z run)...

In fact, the Canadian model may in fact trend this way ... the NOGAPS already has, and if anything, the GFS will be the last to do so ...

[Steve]

Good call SF. I guess it's yo-yo calls from me on this system. I really liked the earlier solutions of the AL/NW FL mid-week, but the EURO stuck that low in South Texas in yesterday's run. It moved it a bit further east, as the other models have trended west. I'm assuming the models see the front that's blowing through later tonight or tomorrow lifting out pretty quickly and just leaving weak stearing currents over the NW Gulf if the moisture is going to essentially sit there for 2, 3 or 4 days. Anyone on the east side (and that would be me), would have to be on the lookout for feeder bands just rotating in off the gulf. Anything oriented N/S would be trouble. I'm still not making a call on rainfall rates until I get a better handle of what's eventually in the cards for the system. But there appear to be flooding rains (albeit < Allison) in the cards for somebody.

Looking out for those 00z runs later.

Steve

[Rainband]

Sorry... but the futher west the models trend the better for me!!!

[cycloneye]

Yep rainband less rain for you.

[Stormsfury]

Sorry... but the futher west the models trend the better for me!!!

Yep ... and if the moisture fields aren't too excessive, possibly quite beneficial for those in the drought-stricken areas along the Western Gulf Coast ...

[vbhoutex]

Guys can't you hold this off to another time since I'm supposed to fly to FL on the 4th and drive back on the 6th?? AT least I will have a front row seat if it verifies!!! :o Better be sure I have my digital with me!!!

[southerngale]

So, are ya'll thinking it will be a tropical storm or just an area of low pressure? I just read my local forecast:

(I'm in Beaumont...between Houston and Lake Charles)

An area of disturbed weather is moving across the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. This system should emerge in the southwestern and southern Gulf of Mexico Friday into Saturday. Some development will be possible by late in the weekend as upper level winds become more favorable.

The earliest possible effect from this system in our area would be around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

[Colin]

Thanks, SF, for all your VERY in-depth analysis!

[Rainband]

I wouldn't worry yet kelly..Looks like undeveloped moisture for Florida at this time..Just what we need NOT!!!!

[Stormsfury]

Tonight's ECMWF is empathic on a Western GOM low ... a little further east and north than last night, and a little faster ... more in line with the ETA with a low (pressure signature) around the Western LA coastline on Day 3 ... and nearly identical in their solutions 72 hours out ...