Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cycloneye]

Brent,If I say to you,go to talking tropics forum to see the introduction of the big wave off Africa by TPC,will that lift your spirits towards something happening somewhere soon?

[wxman57]

Here's a McIDAS shot with the low center identified:

[fci]

Looks Like jeanne when she left HATI...We all know what happend next..

Oh, oh, oh...so many sarcastic things to say...
But I have behaved myself so far this season and promise to continue to do so.
Therefore, I will simply say that I see no correlation with Jeanne.

[vacanechaser]

Here's a McIDAS shot with the low center identified:

looks a little like something trying to wrap around??? maybe


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Derek Ortt]

Come on Derek, you were following what the models suggested and made predictions based on scientific evidence. I can't fault you for that, that's what a meteorologist is supposed to do

I should be able to pick out the errors in the models

The UL is FINALLY dropping south instead of SE, though it took much longer than expected to do so. The low level convergence needs to re-establish itself around the center now, which may take 12-24 hours. This likely won't occur until the shear lessens, which should be 24 more hours. The result is one day of idea conditions

To be fair, we just saw last week what happens with 24 hours of ideal conditions; but I cannot see that happening with this thing, as it is a little too broad. A Gaston at the most is looking likely at this time

[Brent]

Brent,If I say to you,go to talking tropics forum to see the introduction of the big wave off Africa by TPC,will that lift your spirits towards something happening somewhere soon?

Honestly, I'm going to be very cautious now. Outside of Dean nothing has formed east of the islands, so I'm skeptical til I see something. Look at 98L...

[JtSmarts]

This has been such an extreme season, storms are either weak and struggle to survive or become landfalling Category 5 monsters.

[CrazyC83]

This has been such an extreme season, storms are either weak and struggle to survive or become landfalling Category 5 monsters.

I know, it is like there is no middle ground...

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

Latest QuikSCAT from 2:22 pm EDT - closed circulation at 29.0°N 69.4°W. Still 25 kt highest barbs.

[OuterBanker]

I swear I see the cutest litttle feeder bands on latest visable loop.

[tolakram]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

The convection on the west side just poofed. I think it's back to a naked swirl.

[KWT]

Still being quite badly sheared tolakram, not so much the convection poofed just thats its been blown to the SE, until this shear is much reduced then no convection that tries to form over the cente ris going to hold on for all that long.

By the way we've had 65 pages for this invest and 88 pages for a landfalling cat-5 Felix!

[k4sdi]

<Pulling the fork out of the drawer>

Maybe we should just give it a few more hours. Like 12-24 more.

[curtinnc]

<Pulling the fork out of the drawer>

Maybe we should just give it a few more hours. Like 12-24 more.

Yeah just hold on to that fork a little bit... Let's see how this things survives overnight... Could be a different story with less shear tomorrow...

[Lowpressure]

Stick the fork in it. Shear has not relaxed as forecasted, every time it attempts to fire convection, it gets blown away.
Could all those forecating models have been wrong? Big bust it appears.
Goes to show, even if all factors point towards development, there is never a 100% scenario.
I would have bet the farm Tuesday this would be a SE coast issue into this weekend- I would be sleeping in the dog house.

[weatherwoman]

Why do the models keep showing this thing developing? The hurricane center has all but written off, JB is the only one who still thinks its going to be anything, This just goes to show how computers are only as smart as the person using them.

[weatherwoman]

Brent,If I say to you,go to talking tropics forum to see the introduction of the big wave off Africa by TPC,will that lift your spirits towards something happening somewhere soon?

I dont think anything is going to happen this year here. Sorry to say but I wanted it to come, just another let down for me.

[Recurve]

Now look at the convection blowing up south of Andros near the tail ? of the trough. I don't know what happened to 99L but I'd not want to see anything get started in the southern Bahamas.

Is it anything more than afternoon trade wind/island convection?

[Lowpressure]

Now look at the convection blowing up south of Andros near the tail ? of the trough. I don't know what happened to 99L but I'd not want to see anything get started in the southern Bahamas.


Is it anything more than afternoon trade wind/island convection?

IMO, It just looks like afternoon storms aided by the old frontal boundry.

[xironman]

Actually for the first time I am seeing the clouds along the old front start to bend to it as opposed to going in a bee-line to the NE.