Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[JonathanBelles]

It looks like a cold front with a low riding down it.

[Derek Ortt]

time for me to put the dunce cap on yet again (already had it on for 30 minutes on Tuesday)

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK Let's see if there is anything we can observe to put against what the models (globals) forecast yesterday:

Item 1: location of trough (ULL) and resulting shear relative to 99L

Yesterday: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... shr-8.html

COC dead in the middle of zonal shear 30+ knots ( probably 40)


Today: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

COC moving into descreasing shear (maybe 10-20 kts, but could continue to move into 5kt)
looks like an anti-cyclone developing over the system

I know shear maps are suspect, so let us see what the WV info has for us: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Looks like the ULL is retro-grading and not as intense (moving back to 27N 74W) Also taking the NE push of dryer air with it. Also notice the frontal boundary is more diffuse.

All in all it looks like a pattern change to me on the synoptic scale as forecast yes? We have a LLC yes? Let's see what the next 12 hrs brings before we drop our pants and call all the staring at data and models we did yesterday a bust. Could happen, still quite probable, but not yet. I'll change tunes if necessary by the last visible today if we have the LLC all egg-shaped an sparse.



All in all looks like the models predicted and right on time.

Edited for fat fingers

[tolakram]

Somethings happening, but I have no idea what.

[JtSmarts]

time for me to put the dunce cap on yet again (already had it on for 30 minutes on Tuesday)

Come on Derek, you were following what the models suggested and made predictions based on scientific evidence. I can't fault you for that, that's what a meteorologist is supposed to do.

[Ed Mahmoud]

After apparently doubting himself earlier this morning due to the poor satellite appearance and Euro backing off, Joe Bastardi has decided, that to prove he isn't a slave to the Euro, he is still calling for a 970 mb hurricane on the NC coast late Saturday/early Sunday.


As a bonus, the area of clouds farther down the decaying front West of Florida may try to become a tropical depression before reaching Texas this weekend. Per JB.


OK, finally fixed it, I think.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[storms in NC]

Okay now where were we. Oh yeah Son thumb is all sewed up out back to 99L
With each loop it is getting a little more clouds. it is not going east any more. So that is good.. I will wait and see how today and part of Friday. If nothing by then No rain

[BensonTCwatcher]

After apparently doubting himself earlier this morning due to the poor satellite appearance and Euro backing off, Joe Bastardi has decided, that to prove he isn't a slave to the Euro, he is still calling for a 970 mb hurricane on the NC coast late Saturday/early Sunday.


As a bonus, the area of clouds farther down the decaying front West of Florida may try to become a tropical depression before reaching Texas this weekend. Per JB.

He's been right before, not always sure how, but he has.

[chadtm80]

After apparently doubting himself earlier this morning due to the poor satellite appearance and Euro backing off, Joe Bastardi has decided, that to prove he isn't a slave to the Euro, he is still calling for a 970 mb hurricane on the NC coast late Saturday/early Sunday.


As a bonus, the area of clouds farther down the decaying front West of Florida may try to become a tropical depression before reaching Texas this weekend. Per JB.

He's been right before, not always sure how, but he has.

Odds game.. When you say 99L is going to develop, clouds south of Florida will develop, clouds over Africa will develop, you are staking the odds in your favor to be right about SOMETHING Not bashing JB.. He does have his degree, and is knowledgeable.

[Ed Mahmoud]

After apparently doubting himself earlier this morning due to the poor satellite appearance and Euro backing off, Joe Bastardi has decided, that to prove he isn't a slave to the Euro, he is still calling for a 970 mb hurricane on the NC coast late Saturday/early Sunday.


As a bonus, the area of clouds farther down the decaying front West of Florida may try to become a tropical depression before reaching Texas this weekend. Per JB.

He's been right before, not always sure how, but he has.

Even if 99L doesn't develop, he called for something to try to develop where 99L is trying, even as 95L and its cousin 96L were riding out to sea. A week ago he was showing Carol and Bob pre-development synoptic maps, to show the pattern was similar.

[Stormcenter]

After apparently doubting himself earlier this morning due to the poor satellite appearance and Euro backing off, Joe Bastardi has decided, that to prove he isn't a slave to the Euro, he is still calling for a 970 mb hurricane on the NC coast late Saturday/early Sunday.


As a bonus, the area of clouds farther down the decaying front West of Florida may try to become a tropical depression before reaching Texas this weekend. Per JB.

He's been right before, not always sure how, but he has.

Odds game.. When you say 99L is going to develop, clouds south of Florida will develop, clouds over Africa will develop, you are staking the odds in your favor to be right about SOMETHING Not bashing JB.. He does have his degree, and is knowledgeable.

I can buy into some of what he had to say.

[HurricaneBelle]

After apparently doubting himself earlier this morning due to the poor satellite appearance and Euro backing off, Joe Bastardi has decided, that to prove he isn't a slave to the Euro, he is still calling for a 970 mb hurricane on the NC coast late Saturday/early Sunday.


As a bonus, the area of clouds farther down the decaying front West of Florida may try to become a tropical depression before reaching Texas this weekend. Per JB.

He's been right before, not always sure how, but he has.

I subscribed to his columns between 2002-2005, and although I haven't read him lately, one thing he stood out as very good for was pattern recognition and close-in development. I remember he nailed Gaston well before it developed and did likewise with Alex if I recall correctly. I remember him having a much better handle on SW Atlantic development rather than the Gulf, though.

[Bane]

i honestly don't care whether it develops. i just want it to bring some much needed rain here.

[storms in NC]

i honestly don't care whether it develops. i just want it to bring some much needed rain here.

Same here. But it has to do something to give us some rain. I am afraid that we might not get any.

[fci]

time for me to put the dunce cap on yet again (already had it on for 30 minutes on Tuesday)

Hey, you made your call based on all that you saw and knew and will be wrong sometimes.
No fault to be doled out as you were joined by almost all Pro Mets in missing this one.
You and the others were hardly "dunces"!

Kudos to you for stepping up and admitting it.
I doubt we will see many others step up.
Easy to laugh at those who do not agree with them at the time and belittle differing opinions and not so easy to admit that they missed it.

Lessons get learned from most systems and with further analysis (post-motem) I am sure this will only serve to make you and others much better next time when facing the same synoptics

My hat's off to you and I ALWAYS HEED WHAT YOU AND THE OTHER PRO METS SAY as ya'll make this board what it is.

[KWT]

Looks like some slightly moister air is being wrapped round the northern side of the system at the moment which may be why the convection has picked up a tiny bit near the center but really its not going to stop this system going poof unless something changes soon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, after staring intently at the lagniappe feature, the small area of storms off Florida, it doesn't look impressive.

But if a 55 mph T.S. was approaching SE Texas, and NHC had a Hurricane Warning up Monday morning, my office would be closed (per building policy- if in a h. warning, building closed and locked)), and I could take he day off. As long as it stayed below hurricane strength and didn't knock out cable, internet, or lights.

Anyway, while not overly strong, 12Z GFS still sees a Carolina storm Sunday morning, and while about 20 mb weaker than yesterday, WRF sees a storm coming back to NC/SC state line, so its not 100% certain its dead yet.

[BensonTCwatcher]

We used to get him in the mornings on radio, I think he was best at identifying patterns, not so much at specifics. He did call a few snow/ice events, and some TC formation, when others put out different forecasts. I don't want to get into verfying METs forecasts here though. For one I don't have time, and I'm not qualified

[storms in NC]

Looks like some slightly moister air is being wrapped round the northern side of the system at the moment which may be why the convection has picked up a tiny bit near the center but really its not going to stop this system going poof unless something changes soon.

changes are on the way now.