Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[fci]

has anyone heard what derek has had to say today just wondering about his thoughts

Derek is backing off of his earlier thoughts given what has transpired with Invest 99.
Here are the two posts from this morning that I have seen:

5:35 AM:

it is time to reconsider the forecast of a strong hurricane

This is evolving NOTHING like how the models indicated (and I do NOT ever recall them being this AWFUL for something in the mid lats in a long time)

Also, that UL to the west is NOT going away

This may be the second consecutive occurrance that the globals have just been beyond PATHETIC on

6:26 AM:

it may be time to stop giving so much weight to the global models for forecasting TC genesis

They have been showing less skill at predicting these events (having Felix as an open wave) than my 5 year old brother has at following directions

[windstorm99]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

Still drifting to the NE as far as I can tell.

On this loop you can make out the SW drift almost now to 28N.

Loop here

[mitchell]

Is it just me who thinks that forecasting graphics using future satellite and radar imagery is kind of overdone? One of our local TV stations forecasts out 24-48 using radar to show the location of rain...

and this for invest 99...seems like kind of a stretch, and loses the whole cone of uncertaintly concept.

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/invest99l.2007090600_anim.gif?cache=105

[fci]

That's their new GDFL graphic on their Tropical Page.
Kind of silly to move a system on a map like that.
If I lived in NC and looked at it last night; it was frightening!
For an Invest pretty ridiculous to look at a graphical depiction of a Hurricane moving right over you.

Reminds me of the Don Henley song about the 6:00 news..

[LarryWx]

I now am confident that the eastward component of motion is pretty much completed. My eyes tell me that it may be starting to drift ever so slightly SW, but that isn't clear to me yet. It may also be essentially stationary. The models pretty much had it stopping by about now. It is just that the model consensus was for it to stop quite a bit further west than its present location. Based on the photo as of 13:45 Z, I had estimated it be near 28.6 N, 69.6W. However, the 14:15 photo tells me that it may have reformed further SW near 28.3 N, 69.9 W. I don't think it is moving SW that quicky if it is at all. My gut feel is that this will start to develop tropically by tomorrow considering a very intact low level circ., improving atmospheric conditions, very warm SST's, and the time of year.

Had this low's eastwardmost longitude been near the 73-5 W of the ECMWF and quite a few other model runs from the previous couple of days, I would have been thinking at this time that the area from N FL to SC would have been under a significant threat for a tropical cyclone landfall by Sat. However, it went a whopping 5 degrees east (some 300 or so miles), which I continue to expect will keep that area safe from a direct landfall.

[miamicanes177]

If this does not form, it will be a shining moment for the NHC forecasters. They refused to bite on the models even in the face of most professional meteorologist calling for a hurricane. Kudos to the NHC experts for continuing to set the standards of excellence.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[caneman]

there clearly is a dirft to the Sw. How long that last combined with actuall development will give us a better handle on where it may go.

[Epsilon_Fan]

where is it! lol

if you didn't run a loop it would be hard to pick up an invest inthere at all

[HURAKAN]

Some convection is trying to develop to the SW of the LLC.

[ronjon]

Shear drops off to below 10 kts south of 28N. If it can reach 27.5N, shear drops to less than 5 kts. I think from here on out we'll see gradual development.

[ConvergenceZone]

Why are most of you killing this off? It wasn't to do any thing till late Thurseday or Friday any ways. Just wait and see in 24 -36 hours then call it.

because I think that by the time the conditions get better, there won't be anything left of it TO get better......

[Brent]

What a big bust this has been... I'm done with model hugging.

It seems that outside the Caribbean nothing worth anything is getting going.

Next! Except there's nothing else to watch, at the peak of the season.

[tolakram]

I must be dazzling myself but looking at the floater image I posted I see it drifting east still. Watch the lat/lon lines. I guess you all are correct and it's stationary or drifting SW, but why is the floater ... um, floating NE

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

What a big bust this has been... I'm done with model hugging.

It seems that outside the Caribbean nothing worth anything is getting going.

Next! Except there's nothing else to watch, at the peak of the season.

I agree, most of the Atlatnic reminds me of 97 with the high level of shear. Pretty interesting that we supposed to have some kind of developing la nina....Really the SAL is not very powerful even with strong subtropical highs and strong eastly shear through the tropical Atlatnic this year. You would think it would pull it off the dessert of Africa. It seems that we got a stable midlevel layer killing all systems from forming convection over the center Atlatic. I'm not saying all but most....Also shear is amazing, outside the caribbean this season is about ready to go down as something else.

[deltadog03]

The shear is starting to lessen over the system. I still feel that if the shear gets to what the models say, then we could see takeoff. I havn't looks at all of the models at the 300-200mb level, however I have looked at the NAM. It does not have that jet in a favorable position until late today and tom. I still think this is going according to plan.

[wxman57]

I'd be very cautious trusting those shear maps that say low shear anywhere near 99L. The shear maps are only as good as the data used to initialize them, which is sparse. Take a look at a long-term WV loop and you'll see a very strong jet core digging south of the upper low and south of the LLC. Shear isn't about to drop off anytime soon. Chances of development have diminished considerably, probably less than 10% now. I think Dr. McCoy is walking up to the microphone to make an announcement this afternoon.

[PhillyWX]

Is it just me who thinks that forecasting graphics using future satellite and radar imagery is kind of overdone? One of our local TV stations forecasts out 24-48 using radar to show the location of rain...

All of the local stations in Philly (except for Channel 6) have some form of a 'future forecast' or in-house computer model that will show you the rainfall and when you should expect it out to 48 or 60 hours. Considering one Philadelphia station's in-house model blew chunks with forecasting severe wx events this year I don't put much stock in them for exact specifics...more so for generalities.

[wxman57]

because I think that by the time the conditions get better, there won't be anything left of it TO get better......

Precisely my thoughts! Conditions for development can be excellent, but without a disturbance left to develop......

[deltadog03]

good point you 2. There very well might not be anything left. As of now, there is not much there anymore.