Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

No i'm not saying it won't develop i'm saying if it did won't be strong.

You can't guarantee that because if conditions become favorable the system could intensify rapidly as it moves over the GS. Nothing is set in stone.

[wxman57]

Here's a McIDAS shot I enhanced to show the center a bit better. I suppose the LLC isn't dead. Looks better on visible imagery than IR. Maybe it will pull a Jack Bauer, or maybe not. Today will tell...

[punkyg]

I know HURAKAN, but for now i'll stick wit it until 99L show some signs of getting better organized

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[storms in NC]

No i'm not saying it won't develop i'm saying if it did won't be strong.

I don't see how it could be either. It would have to build up in a hurry. Like most on here just don't see it happening. But will keep a eye out cause strange things have happen before. Still would love to get some rain from this. But not looking for any.

[storms in NC]

This one is Morehead City NWC

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THE LOW AND MOVE IT WESTWARD IN TIME BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO BOTH TRACK AND STRENGTH. THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE STRONGER
THAN THE GFS AND FURTHER LEFT WITH THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL AROUND
CAPE FEAR. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE LOW BETWEEN CAPE
LOOKOUT AND OCRACOKE INLET WHILE THE CANADIAN IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM
IN BOTH STRENGTH AND TRACK. BOTH THE NAM AND CANADIAN HAVE SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF WHICH IS EVEN FURTHER LEFT AND HPC HAS
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE NAM. OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION. DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROMPREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE FRI NIGHT AND EARLY
SAT THEN CHANCE POPS SAT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. AT THIS TIME IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF RAINFALL WILL FALL SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND HAVE
CONTINUE WITH MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR
SEASONAL DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 80S SAT AND SUN WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL LOWS MAINLY IN THE 70S. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TUE AND WED
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

[HURAKAN]

Latest:





It's tough to be 99L!!! Wasn't 99L also the good-looking wave in the Caribbean?

[HURAKAN]

In just 24 hrs:

0905 1115Z


0906 1115Z

[punkyg]

What good looking wave?

[Lowpressure]

Frontal boundry appears to have won this battle, good call by the hunters yesterday to not upgrade.

[PhillyWX]

that wave was 98L

[cheezyWXguy]

that wave was 98L

no...the previous 99L tracked through the Caribbean, and didnt do anything until it was too late...but if it did develop it would have been Dean

[storms in NC]

I just can't see how it could do any thing it was caught between the high and the ridge. Just don't see it do much till the high moves off and the front come closer. Yeah it was looking ok but not the best in the past days. But I will sit here and watch it and see what happens. Why not? Still could use that rain if it is nothing but a LP or a cat1. And I don't see a cat1 either. So I guess the big news might be we got some rain.

[PhillyWX]

Here is the key guys for today.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Notice the wind shear differential to the north/NW of 30/70. Wind shear is relaxing north of the LLC and we are seeing a growing area of calm or light winds. Note the map twelve hours ago.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8sht-4.GIF

The shear was stronger to the north 12 hours ago compared to now. IF this high pressure can build in over 99L before the upper trough/wind shear completely degenerates it may have a shot to develop. Essentially the trough would need to weaken, allowing the highs to the south (Bermuda High) and north to build over the low together in tandem.

It's not looking good but if that happens then development could take place.

[vacanechaser]

I just can't see how it could do any thing it was caught between the high and the ridge. Just don't see it do much till the high moves off and the front come closer. Yeah it was looking ok but not the best in the past days. But I will sit here and watch it and see what happens. Why not? Still could use that rain if it is nothing but a LP or a cat1. And I don't see a cat1 either. So I guess the big news might be we got some rain.

you have it a bit backwards... the front needs to move out and the high needs to build in... really the front is causing the shear to the west of the system... once, if, that moves away or weakens, then the high builds in over top and creates the better oattern and conditions aloft... the high to the north coming down and east has stalled the movement of this now and should start to push it westward.. or so the models say... lets remember, it is sitting over pretty warm waters, so once the upper levels get better, it may not take much for it to get going... although, it aint looking the best right now


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ed Mahmoud]

It doesn't look good. If I were NHC, I'd cancel all tasking today, and have one on standby for tomorrow just in case 99L pulled the greatest comeback since "oh yeah?!?!".

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

Clearly there's no need for RECON today.

[Frank2]

Yes, glad the NHC did not get too excited about this yesterday - the trough and the attendant low continue to move slowly northeastward towards Bermuda...

I just wish the media would not show the map graphics some used the other night - a few were very eager to show a model that indicated a bulls-eye of a low off the mid-Atlantic coast - apparently there's too much information at their disposal (disposal being the key word)...

[brunota2003]

Well, looks like 99L is, on satellite, finally leaving the frontal boundary behind as the LLC stalls and the boundary keeps pressing onward. Question is, is it too little too late for the system, or will it be able to save its own hide at the last second? Guess I'll see something this afternoon after I get home from school.

[MGC]

99L appears to be dissipating. The circulation is becoming elongated, a sure sign of it opening up. Shear and dry air is winning the battle.....MGC