Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Dean4Storms]

We are missing our Texas contingent from this thread, wait I'll fix it.


Expect this storm to loop around south of Florida and head for Texas!!!

Sorry couldn't resist.

[hial2]

Well Leave it all to you all. Going to bed have to go to Duke Hospital in AM. 30 year old daughter having heart surgery. Be back late like around 6-7PM will check in the AM before I leave. So have Fun guessing.

Deb

I'm shocked at your run of bad luck...I pray everything will turn out OK..I'm sure it will

[canegrl04]

I'd be shocked if this is not upgraded to TD status before 5am. And I think this one is a GA or Fl storm

[OuterBanker]

Just returned from first night of bowling. On way printed JB's 4pm post which didn't look good for the obx. Consequently I bowled a 114 first game which gives me a shot at low game with handicap at the end of the year. Last year I got the least improved average award (lost 7 pins), also had high game scratch (289). I did finish tonight with a 229 and 215 so I did get my average (185), so I guess I shook it off. Funny, but this am no local TV channels even mentioned any system at all. Don't know if they were mentioned tonight. And all long range forcasts call for sun and no rain. We could use the rain.

[Air Force Met]

I'd be shocked if this is not upgraded to TD status before 5am. And I think this one is a GA or Fl storm

Prepare to be shocked...it won't be. The NHC isn't going to upgrade in the middle of the night when it is not an imminent threat to land...and without any recon data to support the upgrade. They will wait for recon or good vis images.

[RL3AO]

11am at the earliest, probably 11pm if it is a depression waiting for recon.

[chadtm80]

Not going to get upgraded overnight, you can bank on that... Only way they upgrade without recon is if vis shots in AM leave no doubt...

[MGC]

My son lives in the Tidewater VA area. He was unaware of any threat until I informed him this evening. 99L is going to have to fight off some shear and dry air before it can get cranking.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Not going to get upgraded overnight, you can bank on that... Only way they upgrade without recon is if vis shots in AM leave no doubt...

That is a good bet about what may happen between now and tommorow morning.

[windstorm99]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow significant blow up of convection
in that image

[Wthrman13]

Right now, I'd say this system is probably very close to a subtropical depression or storm, based on satellite. It's definitely not fully tropical (yet), due to the significant asymmetry in the convection and it's position downstream of an upper-level trough. The water vapor imagery in particular indicates quite well the highly baroclinic nature of the system. The low-level circulation is broad but well-defined. The NHC is almost certainly waiting until the convection consolidates closer to the low-level center before they go with a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone designation.

[RL3AO]

There should be enough recon data for a 5pm advisory, if recon finds a closed circulation.

[brunota2003]

There is one thing I noticed when looking at the IR loop, curious if anyone else saw it. Has anyone else noticed the western side of the convection blossom has slowed to a near crawl, or was it just my lack of sleep?

[Brent]

There should be enough recon data for a 5pm advisory, if recon finds a closed circulation.

Yep... I fully expect that, especially if it still has an impressive convective blowup come morning.

No upgrade tonight though, I agree.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The less east it goes the
greater the threat to US
so if it slows down that increases
threat once ridge builds in....

[BensonTCwatcher]

faster,

As far as tropical/sub tropical I'll have to defer to the pros, but this systems circulation is still broad. It is trying to close off and exhibit true warm -core cyclonic circulation. It looks to me like it still ( due to shear and dry air) is associated with a low pressure tough extending down through the FL straits. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif Once the upper level conditions improve ( by either a ridge building over the system, or shear decreasing) the low level circulation and the mid-level circualtion ( in the heavy convection) will stack up and we'll have a trpoical storm and then probably a hurricane.

My guess is this won't happen until late tomorrow at the earliest. D-max is helping things though, lots of energy out there.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like 99L could be a TD by tomorrow. I think this one could pull a loopy-loop.

[gotoman38]

I Really hope that we would get something here. don't care if it is a cat1.

Went to Greenville today for Dr appt. and the trees are dieing cause of NO water and the high heat. The rivers you can just about walk across. Not good. So blast me away for wanting it. But I think it will go just off shore or NC Va line. JIMO

Our yard is becoming bare dirt it has been so dry. Only 1.25 inches of rain for the August, average is almost 6 inches.

1.25"? RDU had 0.91" - 2nd driest August on record - and most of those missed my home, I don't think I saw even 0.25" here.

Bring on the rain!

[MWatkins]

Well to me...this is clearly a TD and probably a tropical storm. Yes there is a dry upper low sitting to the NNW of the system...but the convective structure is circular and no longer comma-like...phase diagrams suggest it is warm core and t-numbers have been consistent at a 1.5 from TAFB and SAB all day using shear pattern analysis.

I typically don't disagree with the NHC that often but in this case...given how persistent the convection has been I have no idea what they are waiting for except for validation from recon tomorrow.

I suppose the less forecasts you have to write on a stationary system...the better your forecast verification stats are...

MW