Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[jrod]

Now moving NE....

I dont think it is. Some of the cloud tops are getting heard that way but I dont see the center moving that way yet.....

That trough with what looks to me like a weak ULL keeps digging down, causing shear and bringing in some dry air. This area will not become a depression as long as that is happening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[ronjon]

Still disorganized with the LLC exposed off the west of the heavy convection. It appears to be moving east but I think that is just the heavy convection getting sheared off to the east. I still place the LLC near 29N-74W. This has a long ways to go before it's even remotely a tropical cyclone - namely that 20 kts of shear has got to relax.

[Blown Away]

Over the past few hours.

If you look closely, it appears the Florida Peninsula is trying to kick 99l out to sea.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I do not get how people still think this is exposed? Its NOT Exposed its LLC is right under the blow of convection. Look at the visible above.

[chadtm80]

I do not get how people still think this is exposed? Its NOT Exposed its LLC is right under the blow of convection. Look at the visible above.

Matt.. Look at the quickscat



Then at the "blob"



LLC is not right under "blow up"

[sunnyday]

So, do I understand that Florida is not likely to be involved in this potential storm?

[whereverwx]

I do not get how people still think this is exposed? Its NOT Exposed its LLC is right under the blow of convection. Look at the visible above.

No, it is exposed.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its very close in getting closer...Quickscat is at least a few hours old. Also the shear maps still show 15-20 knot shear over this. So I think its doing pretty good.

[jrod]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

With the shortwave looks like the circulation is at least partially exposed. Again to me it looks like a broad circulation right now and quikscat confirms that, though the image is a few hours old.

[Extremecane]

I do not get how people still think this is exposed? Its NOT Exposed its LLC is right under the blow of convection. Look at the visible above.

Matt.. Look at the quickscat



Then at the "blob"



LLC is not right under "blow up"

first image is from 20:42 utc and the AVN image is 23:15 UTC. 3 hour deifference from both

[chadtm80]

think its moved three degrees East in three hours?

[Thunder44]

I think it's been rally very broad area of low-level pressure over the SW Atlantic and may be trying to consalidate a tighter center further eastward, with the new blow-up of convection.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Chad take a look at calamity loop, it shows the center "not" so broad. Also it shows that the convection is only displaced about 50-80 miles east. Pretty good for a system under 20 knot shear.

[HURAKAN]

Conclusion, we need RECON!!!

[jaxfladude]

Out to sea system(Bermuda)99%
Return to the US East Coast 01%

[wxman57]

I do not get how people still think this is exposed? Its NOT Exposed its LLC is right under the blow of convection. Look at the visible above.

Matt.. Look at the quickscat

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat07090420_99as.png

Then at the "blob"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn-l.jpg

LLC is not right under "blow up"

first image is from 20:42 utc and the AVN image is 23:15 UTC. 3 hour deifference from both

First image is from 11:18Z (look at the purple scan time below the image). The WEB PAGE was updated at 20:42. However, the LLC is located to the western edge of the blob of convection. Still too much shear for it to tuck itself underneath.

[chadtm80]

Chad take a look at calamity loop, it shows the center "not" so broad. Also it shows that the convection is only displaced about 50-80 miles east. Pretty good for a system under 20 knot shear.

thats not what you said though Matt.. You said it is NOT exposed at all.. and is RIGHT under the blow up

I do not get how people still think this is exposed? Its NOT Exposed its LLC is right under the blow of convection. Look at the visible above.

[wxman57]

If you examine the models more closely (not the BAM models, they're useless in the subtropics), you'll see they move 99L out to the ENE for 24-36 hours, stall it when high pressure builds to the north, then move it off to the NW then N as high pressure moves off to the east on Saturday. Thus the significant threat to the east U.S. Coast Saturday/Sunday. I see remarkable model consistency in the east U.S. coast threat. 12Z Euro switched from landfall at Charleston to the SC/NC border. GFS is over eastern NC, as is the GFDL.

The big question is just how far out to sea it gets before it stalls. If it moves quickly enough, the NW and N turn would miss the east U.S. coast.

[chadtm80]

Out to sea system(Bermuda)99%
Return to the US East Coast 01%

Wish I thought you were correct.. But if you check the models.. I would say your percentages were off by a good bit.. But here's hoping you are right anway

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Chad take a look at calamity loop, it shows the center "not" so broad. Also it shows that the convection is only displaced about 50-80 miles east. Pretty good for a system under 20 knot shear.

thats not what you said though Matt.. You said it is NOT exposed at all.. and is RIGHT under the blow up

I do not get how people still think this is exposed? Its NOT Exposed its LLC is right under the blow of convection. Look at the visible above.

Yeah, I should of said that it was just to the west of the convection. Typing fast and not thinking. We will have to see what this thing does, looks like it could get interesting once the shear weakens.