Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Emmett_Brown]

Storms can take unusual paths when in this region with a high moving by to the N. Each storm is different, and not saying that this one will do the same as Jeanne, but many wrote Jeanne off as a non EC threat. During that scenario, the models danced around and one by one fell into line with a consensus.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2004H/JEANNE/track.gif

[cycloneye]

04/1745 UTC 29.5N 73.8W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Almost a TD.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't think anyone is panicing, but I think the concern is just because there isn't alot of notice ahead of time. It's not as if we've been following a longtracker and everyone from Carolina to New England is aware of it. I think that's why the METS are concerned, as are others. Even though it doesn't look like much now, when the METS scream potential hurricane, ya got to listen..This one caught me off guard and so I'm sure it will catch others off guard as well...
Let's just hope and pray the intensity forecasts on a couple of those models are way off and it just develops into a weak hurricane, although even a weak hurricane with little preparation can cause its share of problems. Let's hope for the best but expect the worst...

[fig]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

ha, we're here! Been watching this closely, although I have a bad feeling we'll be looking at a 90 mph cane here in around the NC/SC border this weekend

[brunota2003]

Eh...recent model trends have been converging on my house...GFDL, GFS, CMC is close, UKMET...Can they get any closer? How about street level? (please no)

[gatorcane]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

ha, we're here! Been watching this closely, although I have a bad feeling we'll be looking at a 90 mph cane here in around the NC/SC border this weekend

Globals models (Euro and CMC) are showing winds much stronger than that....

Try CAT 3+ winds with higher gusts. If it actually materializes, and if it hits the states in the right locations..total devastation could happen. (notice I said if and could here).

[fig]

ha, we're here! Been watching this closely, although I have a bad feeling we'll be looking at a 90 mph cane here in around the NC/SC border this weekend

Globals models are showing winds much stronger than that....

Yeah but 90mph is enough for me! Just enough to get outta class a couple days and be exciting, so I'll keep -removed- for that!

[gatorcane]

and for some reason I don't want to leave out the East Coast of Florida still.....it seems it is drifting SE most of the day today (at least the energy is as the shear is from the NW)...

The NOGAPS sends it WSW to just off Palm Beach, FL and then moves it north along the East Coast of Florida up to the Carolinas...that would be BAD if it happenend.

[BUD]

I like Gov Sanford but when it comes to Hurricanes he is slllllooooowwwww!!!!!That worry me a little.

[BensonTCwatcher]

This is time for homebrews all right. The S2Kers will be in here soon enough, either by regular checkups or by the media soon after. Most folks won't get too excited until classification, which is the danger so close to the coast. Once/air the dry air and shear abate, it woudl likely jump classification quickly since it would over 28C water or better.

[NCWeatherChic]

Okay, I have been caught off guard. I haven't been paying much attention to this as I had Felix. It seems most attention around here is on Felix, no mention thus far about this one.

I am pregnant and due any day now...scheduled induction for Friday if I don't go into labor before then, so now I must pay more attention.

[jabber]

Just moved up from Boynton Beach to Raleigh. I moved during Barry and drove all the way up in it. Hurricanes seem to like me... Luck me.

[gatorcane]

the guidance envelope is going to be pretty large on this thing initiallly. The NHC cone will likely touch the East Coast of Florida from about Palm Beach on the extreme left and up to the Carolinas on the right....

[Lowpressure]

One thing to keep in mind is these models that many are saying have done so well with DEAN and FELIX did not really get a forcasting challenge with a strong ridge in place and two westward moving big canes. Tracks were pretty much straight forward. This will be a little different, trust me. I do think the Carolinas are in line for a potential strike here, but easy on the intensity estimates. It is way too early to talk landfall intensity and point.

[OuterBanker]

The inherent problem with storms that develop close to home is evacuation plans. Ocracoke island is accessible by ferry only so it needs 48 hr lead time. Hatteras island needs 24 at least and hwy 12 floods with large surf conditions. There is simply not enough lead time in a lot of cases because storms can blow up quickly before landfall. Alex in 04 is a good example. It did scare a lot of tourists because of Cat 1 conditions and over wash isolating people in their homes. And it was only a Cat 1. Fortunately, most if not all also don't have enough time to make it to major. I haven't seen any intensity predictions, but I'm sure none are above Cat 1.

[BensonTCwatcher]

the guidance envelope is going to be pretty large on this thing initiallly. The NHC cone will likely touch the East Coast of Florida from about Palm Beach on the extreme left and up to the Carolinas on the right....

right now it might look like a donut. Don't laugh they have done that before when the data supported it

[gatorcane]

Recall that the CMC and NOGAPS were winners in predicting paths in 2004 and 2005. I agree with LowPressure....the Felix/Dean path was more clearcut than this one.

Anybody from South Florida up to Maine needs to monitor this....we shouldn't just peg the Carolinas here IMHO.

The models are all over the place in initializing this thing so we shouldn't jump on them just yet.

[Lowpressure]

The inherent problem with storms that develop close to home is evacuation plans. Ocracoke island is accessible by ferry only so it needs 48 hr lead time. Hatteras island needs 24 at least and hwy 12 floods with large surf conditions. There is simply not enough lead time in a lot of cases because storms can blow up quickly before landfall. Alex in 04 is a good example. It did scare a lot of tourists because of Cat 1 conditions and over wash isolating people in their homes. And it was only a Cat 1. Fortunately, most if not all also don't have enough time to make it to major. I haven't seen any intensity predictions, but I'm sure none are above Cat 1.

Check the Euro!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think though the tampa bay area being all the way on the west
coast is pretty safe from this. At most we will
have gusty North winds with sunny dry hot weather.

East coast a higher risk, and along the carolinas greatest risk.

[cycloneye]

I would not pay too much attention to the models,until a low center is initialized as a cyclone.Many would say,why Cycloneye is posting the models then? Well I post them as information to the members,not that I am a big fan of them.