Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

['CaneFreak]

Link, please!!!

[gatorcane]

The 12z ECMWF has a nuclear bomb right off NC/SC border at 96 hours.

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SC/NC could very well be facing at least a category 2 hurricane because
it is over warm water right now and the waters are warm south
of the carolinas. And there is the distinct possibility
with these models of a category 3 major hurricane approaching
the carolinas.

If I'm not reading the CMC and Euro wrong -- they are both showing much worse than a CAT 2 hurricane right? More like CAT 3/4?

[miamicanes177]

The 12z ECMWF has a nuclear bomb right off NC/SC border at 96 hours.

NC landfall at 120 hours

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 12z ECMWF has a nuclear bomb right off NC/SC border at 96 hours.

NC landfall at 120 hours

This looks very, very bad.

[gatorcane]

and there won't be a whole lot of time to prepare..the models expect this thing to bomb out quickly....people in the Carolinas may think about wrapping up their preparation plans.....just to be safe...

[KWT]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

[OuterBanker]

I think a Newfoundland wheel setup is expected to occur. The high is advancing ahead of the low and expected to build which will halt east advancement, then the high will kick it toward the west and northwest and finally north. Right now all models send it back to the northwest, the differences are where the system initiates.

Anyway, that's the way I understand it.

[TampaFl]

NWS Melbourne AFD:

000
FXUS62 KMLB 041828
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N 75W HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
GRADIENT FLOW TO START TO WEAKEN. DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS KEEP ATLANTIC SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED ALONG WITH
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL POP ACROSS THE SOUTH INTERIOR FOR THIS EVENING. THOUGH THE
WINDS HAVE A MOSTLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND HENCE WEAK ONSHORE
TRAJECTORY...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL COASTAL POP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WED...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS POINTS TO THE AREAS NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES.

THU-TUE...FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. LATEST CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. WHAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT
THROUGH THU. SUBSIDENT AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION
TO THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. THOSE
VENTURING TO THE BEACH WILL NEED TO BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS IN THE
WATER...DUE TO THE ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS CURRENTS.

STRONG RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
EVENTUALLY STEER THE LOW NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. DESPITE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...FEEDBACK LOOP (I.E. DRY
AUGUST) SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL.


NWS Tampa AFD:


000
FXUS62 KTBW 041718
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
118 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S./NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO DEEPEN SOME AS IT MEANDERS EVER
SO SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/SFC LOW TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER AN UNSEASONABLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR MASS...WHICH
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL BELOW NORMAL (POPS ~20% AT BEST)...WHILE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (POPS ~30% ON WEDNESDAY THEN 20% ON THURSDAY)
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL RESIDE. SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV/MET TEMPS ARE
SIMILAR AND WILL USE A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...LOW CONFIDENCE LONG RANGE
FORECAST CONTINUES GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO PERSIST OFF THE EAST
FLORIDA COAST. ECMWF/FSU_MM5/NOGAPS ALL KEEP THE LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST
FRIDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS/NAM12/GFDL/HWRF/CMC MAKE IT STRONGER AND PUSH
IT CLOSER TO BERMUDA. WITH EITHER SOLUTION EXPECT DRIER AIR TO CONTINUE
OVER THE STATE AND HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
REDUCED IN THE AFTERNOON. DROPPED POPS TO ISOLATED COVERAGE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH AND LOW-END SCATTERED SOUTH.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE LOW SLOWLY UP THE
EAST COAST. ONLY EXCEPTIONS ARE THE FSU_MM5 AND NOGAPS KEEPING IT
CLOSER TO THE REGION. SHOULD IT MOVE FASTER AWAY FROM THE AREA...WE`LL
SEE A RETURN OF THE SURFACE RIDGE COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND BETTER
MOISTURE. WILL SLOWLY BRING POPS BACK UP TO 30 NORTH/40 CENTRAL AND
SOUTH BY SUNDAY. THEN WILL ASSUME THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY THE NEXT WORK WEEK WITH THE RIDGE IN
PLACE SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING CLIMO POPS.

[Brent]

Yikes. Remember that the Euro nailed Dean and Felix.

[gatorcane]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

[Derek Ortt]

This looks to be a shoe-in cane, and probably not a weak one either

[gatorcane]

This looks to be a shoe-in cane, and probably not a weak one either

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think a Newfoundland wheel setup is expected to occur. The high is advancing ahead of the low and expected to build which will halt east advancement, then the high will kick it toward the west and northwest and finally north. Right now all models send it back to the northwest, the differences are where the system initiates.

Anyway, that's the way I understand it.

OB get prepared just in case, if that ridge is just slightly strong it
will slam NC/SC. and with ecmwf showing a hurricane i would be
ready to take action...granted it is still several days away
but better safe than sorry.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

I hope they know about this because if not this scenario looks
even more horrifying if it materializes.

[Brent]

This looks to be a shoe-in cane, and probably not a weak one either

I knew Gabrielle sounded like a bad name.

[DESTRUCTION5]

This looks to be a shoe-in cane, and probably not a weak one either

Nice last time you said that a Cat 5 hammered the yuc..

[ALhurricane]

Watching closely here in Raleigh, NC. Not hoping for a strong hurricane, but sure would like some of that tropical rain. Unfortunately, we might also get the strong hurricane with it.

This will be an interesting week. I am even more concerned now with the ECMWF on board with significant development.

[Weatherfreak14]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

I hope they know about this because if not this scenario looks
even more horrifying if it materializes.

I am and im preparing here in Beaufort SC though it looks a less risk for me, my family had to go through the track of hugo, this may do oppisite it may dogleg south instead of north.

[kevin]

There is no need to panic. A lot of things can happen that the models haven't a clue.

['CaneFreak]

once again I ask for a link to the ECMWF!!! Please...