Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[DESTRUCTION5]

One thing i've learned about these stall East of FL/NC is NO ONE is ever 100% correct..It has to be watched till its either headed NE or sheard till its bare naked..

[seaswing]

One thing i've learned about these stall East of FL/NC is NO ONE is ever 100% correct..It has to be watched till its either headed NE or sheard till its bare naked..

I was just going to post the same thing Destructions. Especially when they meander out there. It is the time of year when they blow up very fast and sometimes skip the TD stage but when they meander and drift and then blow up and make a move, everyone on the east coast should be paying attention.

[gatorcane]

You never know though..all it takes is a ridge to the north of it to build in and push it W to (or WSW) for South Florida...its right offshore..kind of scary but it is still north of the South Florida lattitude...

Jeanne looped for example and came back to hit the East coast of Florida...you never know.

Convection is getting pushed southward -- what if the center relocates or jumps a bit farther south - things can change quickly...

[miamicanes177]

12z CMC has it bombs away for North Carolina. It did very well with Felix so let's see if it can have continued success with 99l.

[gatorcane]

current steering currents setup:

[windstorm99]

Visible loop of 99L....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this may intensify pretty quickly, I'm not too
worried for florida, it looks like it would go
towards the carolinas...as the majority of globals
take it away from florida...but I'll keep an eye on
it just in case it does something weird.

Not to concerned about it here in tampa bay.
But no one should let their gaurd down.

[SoonerMaximus]

"Southweast" - the ultimate angle.

[Hurricaneman]

Right now it looks to me like half a storm

[cpdaman]

two questions

after the east motion stops (assuming)

the westward drift that is forecast is due to what? building ridge? could the westward drift be SW?

and the North turn is forecast due to what? approaching trough?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

two questions

after the east motion stops (assuming)

the westward drift that is forecast is due to what? building ridge? could the westward drift be SW?

and the North turn is forecast due to what? approaching trough?

ridge for west
trough for north

[miamicanes177]

Don't be surprised if Accuweather declares this tropical depression 7 this afternoon. I'm hearing JB and a private pilot are flying into 99L right now and have already found west winds! ...All kidding aside I do believe this is very near tropical depression status.

[fci]

You never know though..all it takes is a ridge to the north of it to build in and push it W to (or WSW) for South Florida...its right offshore..kind of scary but it is still north of the South Florida lattitude...

Jeanne looped for example and came back to hit the East coast of Florida...you never know.

Convection is getting pushed southward -- what if the center relocates or jumps a bit farther south - things can change quickly...

Sorry dude, but I see no correlation or connection to Jeanne.
Every storm can't be a Florida threat, no matter how many "what if's" you toss out there.

If I see a model consensue of a push towards Florida then I will lend that option credence.
Now, the Pros (wxman) and most models do not show this happening so I can't join the party.

[Lowpressure]

We in the Carolinas just want the rain. We are so far behind it is crazy. Looks to be a lot of shear at present, but with good mid level rotation. If shear relaxes, this could be bad for some. Charleston, and points North look to have best shot at getting this one.

Note- count from 2005 to present- if I told you we would have that many storms- several major canes- none of which would hit the Carolinas, you would have called me an idiot. Outer banks got scraped once. I bet without counting it is 45 storms. Just an ob.

[shortwave]

much like with Dean and Felix when you have a high moving in tandem already over the system building westward, that will give more credence to a longer westward motion...a high moving west to east will do what some of the models are showing, slow move to the east .. then back to the west and then up and around the western periphery of that high

[KWT]

It almost looks like a tropical storm right now though I know looks can be wrong sometimes!
Convection seems to be trying to build underneath the circulation but there is still some shear present.
Long term I think north Carolina between 110-120mph.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Global models might shift to the carolinas if the ridge gets
stronger...it will
depend on the ridge but most likely the carolinas northward

[miamicanes177]

The 12z ECMWF has a nuclear bomb right off NC/SC border at 96 hours.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 12z ECMWF has a nuclear bomb right off NC/SC border at 96 hours.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



SC/NC could very well be facing at least a category 2 hurricane because
it is over warm water right now and the waters are warm south
of the carolinas. And there is the distinct possibility
with these models of a category 3 major hurricane approaching
the carolinas. the models show explosive intensification, so
the carolinas need to be on guard big time.

Not trying to cause panic but when ECMWF shows a monster
hurricane that is a BIG PROBLEM-- since it has been very
accurate with dean and felix.

[gatorcane]

if the Euro shows a bomb watch out -- it has nailed the systems this season so far.