Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[hial2]

I give it a very minimal single digit (if that) percentage chance of following that "worst case" scenario.

If, and I say IF; 99: develops, I see it going off NE.
I suspect shear will take its toll and nothing will come of it.

If it follows the rules,you are correct...but this year Felix and Dean didn't..

what does that mean??? didnt follow the rules.... perfect conditions would support a cat 4 or 5 anywhere in the atlantic which is what they had..perfect conditions.... they dont just do what they want....

i just dont see any reason this is going across fla. at this point....



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I was referring to the arrow straight path both took..the rock hard high that guided them is still here..I know..it's still very hot where I live with a worst ever drought..
That same high might prevent 99l from going where it's supposed to..just a hypothesis

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[TampaFl]

Not sure how this could go nw to north over the next several days. The strong ridge over the south central/souetheast US just will not relase its grip. Forcast is for a trough to move over the east coast by the end of the week. Will the ridge break down enough to allow a north west to north novement? Thoughts & comments welcomed.




Robert

[Coredesat]

EDIT: Sorry, not thinking straight due to only 45 minutes of sleep. Thought previous post referred to Felix.

[storms in NC]

Here this may help to see what could turn it back to the coast


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINLY IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HANDLE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST DIFFERENTLY. HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT W AND EVENTUALLY N. MOST MODELS TAKE
THE TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EFFECTS TO
ERN NC. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COAST AND LOWS IN
THE 70S. LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SAT THROUGH MON.

[cycloneye]

AS OF 04/0900 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OFF THE E
FLORIDA COAST CENTERED NEAR 30N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO JUST W OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW ALONG
31N73W TO 30N67W. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY DOES SHOW ANY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ONLY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. IT
DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-30N
BETWEEN 71W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 76W AND THE FLORIDA E COAST AND N OF 28N TO
THE N SURFACE TROUGH.

$$
WALLACE



8 AM Discussion by TPC.

[cycloneye]

04/1145 UTC 29.2N 76.4W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[brunota2003]

Here this may help to see what could turn it back to the coast


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
412 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINLY IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS HANDLE
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST DIFFERENTLY. HIGH
PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
ALLOWING THE LOW TO DRIFT W AND EVENTUALLY N. MOST MODELS TAKE
THE TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND EFFECTS TO
ERN NC. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COAST AND LOWS IN
THE 70S. LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE SAT THROUGH MON.

To add onto this is the Marine Discussion:

.MARINE...
DIFFICULT FORECAST DAYS 4-5 AS EFFECTS OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OUT OF THE NE/E THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO THE
NORTH AND DISORGANIZED/WEAK LOW PRES PREVAILS TO THE THE SE. THE
HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY LEADING TO
WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST MINIMAL ADVISORY
LEVELS BY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH.

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. INITIALLY THE
SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL ONLY BE BRIEFLY STEERED EAST...THEN IT APPEARS
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL INHIBIT ANY FURTHER
MOVEMENT NE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE SE
COAST WHILE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED CURRENTLY...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS THAT LOW PRES
WILL BE OFF/NEAR THE COAST SO I WILL INTRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

Apparently, if you live along the Carolina's, you need to watch this system very closely. Very interesting forecasts will be seen over the next few days.

[brunota2003]

Also, looking at the visibles, I do see a broad area of rotation just on the west side of the big blob of convection. Maybe it'll slip under the convection and make things even more interesting? Hope not, it just needs to die...especially since it is near the Gulf Stream I would not be surprised to see them hinting at better organization for the 11:30 TWO and possibly a recon invest scheduled, if nessecary (which it is becoming more and more apparent that it will be needed more than not). Alas, I have school in less than an hour, so I'll miss the 11:30 TWO until I get home.

[cycloneye]

so I'll miss the 11:30 TWO until I get home.

There is not a single PC at your school?

[brunota2003]

so I'll miss the 11:30 TWO until I get home.

There is not a single PC at your school?

There is, I just do not have classes that require me to get on them, therefore we are not allowed to, unless it's "School work" related...bah humbug

[storms in NC]

High school have a block on them. So said my kids when they went. Don't have any in school any more Baby is in collage.

[brunota2003]

High school have a block on them. So said my kids when they went. Don't have any in school any more Baby is in collage.

Nope, the last three years I always kept tabs on the tropics and severe weather, but I had computer classes, so once I finished my work, I'd ask the teacher...but no such classes this year for me. But it was always so nice to be able to see the 11 am advisories when they first came out, versus seeing them at like 3 pm.

[storms in NC]

Does any one know where I can find history on Hurricans that formed off the coast and turn into a hurricane? Or has one never done so. The most I have ever seen is to a TS. Any help here?

Here is a update from NWC in Morehead City

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SE LATE IN THE PERIOD. INITIALLY THE
SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL ONLY BE BRIEFLY STEERED EAST...THEN IT APPEARS
THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL INHIBIT ANY FURTHER
MOVEMENT NE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE SE
COAST WHILE STRENGTHENING OVER THE WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW
IN ANY PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED CURRENTLY...THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSENSUS THAT LOW PRES
WILL BE OFF/NEAR THE COAST SO I WILL INTRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY


Deb

[KBBOCA]

Does any one know where I can find history on Hurricans that formed off the coast and turn into a hurricane? Or has one never done so. The most I have ever seen is to a TS. Any help here?

Deb

Deb, perhaps you remember Alex in 2004. Went from a depression to a Cat2 VERY quickly right off the coast of NC.

From here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/res ... .html#alex
Hurricane Alex developed off the North Carolina coast from a tropical depression that had formed at the end of July approximately 175 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Alex quickly and unexpectedly intensified to a category 2 storm with sustained winds close to 100 mph (85 kts) on August 3rd. The outer wall of the eye brushed the Outer Banks of North Carolina at Cape Hatteras, but the storm did not officially make landfall. The strongest winds remained offshore, although sustained category one wind-speeds were recorded on the Outer Banks. Alex continued to strengthen as it moved northward and is the strongest Atlantic tropical storm on record north of 38° North, with maximum sustained winds at 120 mph (105 kts).

[chadtm80]

Certainly looking better this morning. If convection continues like that should be a TD in no time imo.. Quickscat showed a definate circulation at the surface

[mitchell]

European model brings 99l back to the coast by sunday...

[deltadog03]

LOL...I just posted that under the models!

[windstorm99]

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
611 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 08 2007 - 12Z TUE SEP 11 2007

CHOSE THE 00Z/04 ECMWF TO CONSTRUCT THE PRELIMINARY GRAPHICS FOR
THE MEDIUM RANGE...ADJUSTING THE TRACK OF ITS TROPICAL SYSTEM
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST EASTWARD TOWARD THE MEAN OF THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS. THE 00Z/04 GEFS MEAN SHOWS A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND
GEM GLOBAL WHICH BOTH ALLOW A CONSIDERABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
THREATEN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ECMWF HAS MAINTAINED GOOD
CONTINUITY OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN
CANADA AS COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL GFS WHICH HAS BACKED OFF THE
AGGRESSIVE COLLAPSE OF HEIGHTS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA IT HAD BEEN
SHOWING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think this system clearly is a tropical depression. The persistent convection is blossoming closer to a well-defined LLC, which has been evident throughout the morning. Mid-level shear could gradually decrease over the next 24 hours. Additionally, an earlier QuikSCAT ascent indicated an elongated circulation and displaced wind barbs near 25 kts (NW side). Since then, the circulation has become more organized, and some stronger sfc winds could be occurring under the southern convection (this is speculation). The pressure gradient could argue against this hypothesis, so it is a close call. 99L deserves a floater, in my opinion.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

I think we may observe our next TD if the current trends continue during the next several hours. I fully expect more information from the TPC during the afternoon hours. I don't think this system can be ignored. The upper-level divergence has aided structural organization, and you can see the increasingly conducive inflow regime on the southern and eastern sides.