Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Coredesat]

If you watch the IR2 loop you can make out a broad circulation to the WNW of the convection, moving to the SE.

[hial2]

Worst case scenario: Move S/E a few more degrees,develop then move west pushed by the high thru Fl into the GOM...the "Katrina" syndrome..

[windstorm99]

Worst case scenario: Move S/E a few more degrees,develop then move west pushed by the high thru Fl into the GOM...the "Katrina" syndrome..

I was just thinking the same thing....Not sure it will make it that far south though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Worst case is it moves slowly southward through the next few days...Followed by a Anticyclone forming over it, as the subtropical high pressure builds north of it. Once it does that the system will feast off the tchp that made hurricane andrew in 92. As this is doing a felix moving westward into Miami Florida. That is the worst case.

We have to watch this system carefully...Because when a system gets away from shear this year, they get very interesting.

[hial2]

Worst case is it moves slowly southward through the next few days...Followed by a Anticyclone forming over it, as the subtropical high pressure builds north of it. Once it does that the system will feast off the tchp that made hurricane andrew in 92. As this is doing a felix moving westward into Miami Florida. That is the worst case.

If that happens,what is there to prevent it from crossing into the GOM and create havoc there as well??..the GOM ssts are at their peak..

[Coredesat]

TCHP isn't that high in this area. Also, the models are still divergent; the GFS now sends it out to sea whereas the NAM deepens it and moves it back WNW.

Steering currents are currently weak but most AFDs in this area are forecasting a front to move in over the next few days.

[fci]

I give it a very minimal single digit (if that) percentage chance of following that "worst case" scenario.

If, and I say IF; 99: develops, I see it going off NE.
I suspect shear will take its toll and nothing will come of it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If a Anticyclone and favorable upper levels develop over it. In this ever got into the gulf of Mexico, I feel sorry for all that live in its path.

[hial2]

TCHP isn't that high in this area. Also, the models are still divergent; the GFS now sends it out to sea whereas the NAM deepens it and moves it back WNW.

It's going to be an interesting few days ahead...

[Coredesat]

If a Anticyclone and favorable upper levels develop over it. In this ever got into the gulf of Mexico, I feel sorry for all that live in its path.

None of the global models are showing that scenario at this point.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TCHP isn't that high in this area. Also, the models are still divergent; the GFS now sends it out to sea whereas the NAM deepens it and moves it back WNW.

Steering currents are currently weak but most AFDs in this area are forecasting a front to move in over the next few days.

Your right about the models, I'm just talking about the worst case here. Also hurricane dog of the 1950s was a cat5 up to 27 north. Derek ortt thinks Hugo was also a cat5 at landfall. What I'm talking about is a hurricane that gets to the lat of Andrew or slightly higher...Then you have the high tchp to support a power house.

[hial2]

I give it a very minimal single digit (if that) percentage chance of following that "worst case" scenario.

If, and I say IF; 99: develops, I see it going off NE.
I suspect shear will take its toll and nothing will come of it.

If it follows the rules,you are correct...but this year Felix and Dean didn't..

[Nimbus]

Looks like it is working its way down to the surface.
Nogaps has it drifting south as the ridge rolls east.

Lower shear should help development.



And for those of you old enough to remember the Jackie Gleason show. "and away we go!"

[fci]

Miami NWS Discussion shows this meandering and then going NE:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
406 am EDT Tuesday Sep 4 2007


Discussion...guidance continues to change from day to day, and
the main cause for this is the low east of the northern Florida coast
and its associated trough and all the uncertainties regarding this
system. The trough extends from roughly Settlement Point and across
southern portions of the County Warning Area and then into the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms and rain are
currently ongoing along the boundary over the coastal waters and
this trend will likely continue into the middle morning hours. Across
the Mainland a slightly more stable air mass will move into the
County Warning Area as the trough continues to drift south and east today, however
enough moisture and instability will be over the area to create
scattered thunderstorms and rain with the focus being the southeast portions of the
peninsula due to the north northwest flow behind the trough. As
the low continues to spin over the Atlantic with the surface
trough east of the County Warning Area and the upper trough also east of S Florida a
slightly more stable airmass is now expected. Previously guidance
was keeping the trough directly across the area and the probability of precipitation
higher for this reason. This new solution is cause for the lower
of the probability of precipitation across S Florida through the end of the week. This may also
lead to some warmer temperatures across the County Warning Area especially over the
interior sections as reduced coverage of thunderstorms and rain occurs. Over the
weekend the low is finally expected to move northeast and away
from the area and a more Summer like pattern will resume.

[vacanechaser]

I give it a very minimal single digit (if that) percentage chance of following that "worst case" scenario.

If, and I say IF; 99: develops, I see it going off NE.
I suspect shear will take its toll and nothing will come of it.

If it follows the rules,you are correct...but this year Felix and Dean didn't..

what does that mean??? didnt follow the rules.... perfect conditions would support a cat 4 or 5 anywhere in the atlantic which is what they had..perfect conditions.... they dont just do what they want....

i just dont see any reason this is going across fla. at this point....

and i am not so sure it will just head out either... the globals seem to be getting together on this one... they are all showing development and some effects, if not a hit on the coast somewhere...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hial2]

Miami NWS Discussion shows this meandering and then going NE:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
406 am EDT Tuesday Sep 4 2007


Discussion...guidance continues to change from day to day, and
the main cause for this is the low east of the northern Florida coast
and its associated trough and all the uncertainties regarding this
system. The trough extends from roughly Settlement Point and across
southern portions of the County Warning Area and then into the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms and rain are
currently ongoing along the boundary over the coastal waters and
this trend will likely continue into the middle morning hours. Across
the Mainland a slightly more stable air mass will move into the
County Warning Area as the trough continues to drift south and east today, however
enough moisture and instability will be over the area to create
scattered thunderstorms and rain with the focus being the southeast portions of the
peninsula due to the north northwest flow behind the trough. As
the low continues to spin over the Atlantic with the surface
trough east of the County Warning Area and the upper trough also east of S Florida a
slightly more stable airmass is now expected. Previously guidance
was keeping the trough directly across the area and the probability of precipitation
higher for this reason. This new solution is cause for the lower
of the probability of precipitation across S Florida through the end of the week. This may also
lead to some warmer temperatures across the County Warning Area especially over the
interior sections as reduced coverage of thunderstorms and rain occurs. Over the
weekend the low is finally expected to move northeast and away
from the area and a more Summer like pattern will resume.

[Coredesat]

what does that mean??? didnt follow the rules.... perfect conditions would support a cat 4 or 5 anywhere in the atlantic which is what they had..perfect conditions.... they dont just do what they want....

Exactly what I was going to say. These things don't just randomly become majors out of nowhere, they need the right conditions. This area has moderate shear, dry air, and much less TCHP than in the Caribbean.

[storms in NC]

Here is a very nice write up on Hugo
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanehugo.htm

I am glad we will not have that to worry over 99L I think at best TS. Just have to watch its every move on this.

[vacanechaser]

what does that mean??? didnt follow the rules.... perfect conditions would support a cat 4 or 5 anywhere in the atlantic which is what they had..perfect conditions.... they dont just do what they want....

Exactly what I was going to say. These things don't just randomly become majors out of nowhere, they need the right conditions. This area has moderate shear, dry air, and much less TCHP than in the Caribbean.

some folks seem to think that a hurricane has a mind of its own and they just do and go where they want... just throw out the conditions arond the storm... lol



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Who know where this system is going to go. Some models take it up the east coast, while others take it out to sea. Really its a wait and see. I was just pointing out the worst case...Yes the TCHP is not as high as the caribbean but I'm talking about 25-26 north in this case. NOT REALLY about this system. That would be something.