Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

HWRF in six days - a New York City hurricane?

Uh no.Whats next a hurricane in maine.The model needs some tuneing.

It can happen:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Just thought I'd point that one out, on with the converstaion.

[Emmett_Brown]

The system seems to be loosing the organization that it gained earlier when it was declared an invest. Looks northerly shear is taking its toll at the moment. This is starting to look similar to the Bahama invest that we saw get ripped apart last week by shear. Sure, it could easily pulse up some convection, but the shear looks like it will become even worse off the GA coast in the next 48 hours. If this thing is going to form, it would have to do it further south IMO. Here is the shear forecast from the GFS at 48 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/shr_48.gif

[destruction92]

Dr. Lyons said at 8:50 that 99L would head towards Bermuda and then go to the east coast of Florida.

At 9:50, he said towards Bermuda then generally towards the EC, he did not specifically say Fl, he generally pointed towards FL,GA, and SC.

That sounds good and everything, but at 8:50 PM EST he specifically said "F-L-O-R-I-D-A".
I didn't see the 9:50 PM tropical weather update but I will take your word for it.

[fci]

This is eerily similar to the Bahamas Invest last week where some "freakish" thing was in the models (specifically CMC comes to mind) that was possibly going to effect Florida.

I generally count on things like this NOT happening.

A Jeanne scenario made more sense since it genesis was further south.

The Bahamas Invest was looked at to move due west from way out in the Atlantic, highly unlikely.

99L starts off the Georgia/North Florida coast loops around and then heads W or WSW? Also REALLY unlikely.

I pay little credence to a model here and there predicting a highly unlikely occurance. I stick to the logical ones from the models or a consensus.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[Ptarmigan]

Models are all over the place. I notice it with tropical waves/invests in that general area.

[Recurve]

Convection blooming near the middle of the broad turning in the last frame.

[hurricanetrack]

Yes, and it is too bad there is a sat eclipse! If you go by the animation and speed it up, it sure looks like that convection is going up right over the center- near 77.5 and 30.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

Not staying up until 3:30 to see the new images but will sure be interested to see this upon sunrise.

[Normandy]

Its blooming, but its being sheared off to the east....system is facing heavy shear right now.

[marcane_1973]

Latest IR: http://img260.imageshack.us/my.php?imag ... xqflw6.jpg

[marcane_1973]

Latest IR: http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/2716 ... td9yt8.jpg (It is getting sheared but the convection is not looking too bad.)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ROUGHLY 300 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

Convection continues to increase.

[Emmett_Brown]

Convection blossoming, but LLC is diffuse and off to the west. Shortwave IR loop shows nearly S movement overnight, while convection heads ESE:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

Also, a sharpening upper level short wave can be seen shearing 99L:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



LOOKING GOOD.

[vacanechaser]

Latest:



LOOKING GOOD.

yep... still sheared though... but thats what happens everytime we get one of these off the coast here... they are sheared, slow to go, then boom.. be interesting to see if it continues through the day...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ronjon]

Broad exposed LLC near 29.8N-76.8W this morning. All the heavy convection is being sheared off to the east. Movement appears to be a slow drift to the south. I think the key to the future track of the system is how far east it goes over the next day or two. After that , all models show a west movement for a couple of days and then a turn toward the north. I do believe that eventually we'll get development when the shear relaxes some and perhaps see another hurricane from this system.

[windstorm99]

Any thoughts on how far south 99L might get?

[HURAKAN]

Latest: