Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[bigGbear]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005H/BETA/track.gif

Here is the last major to make landfall in the area

Info on Beta
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Beta_%282005%29

I would hope hurricane warnings are being extended further south in Nicaragua.

[Sanibel]

More like WSW. I give up.

[RDTF]

Is there any major citys or towns in the landfall area?

No, I've been looking at that all day. Even the biggest town is the boondocks by our standards.

That's not to minimize the danger to anyone who lives there. It's just that the population density is fairly light.

good link for that info

http://www.fallingrain.com/world/

[RDTF]

AF309 is now in the air out of Puerto Rico.

[Sanibel]

No doubt it got stronger in that red core flare up. The ridge is strong and isn't going to allow any wobbles WNW.

[wxman57]

New 3hr motion based on 2315Z to 0215Z satellite imagery 48nm toward 265 deg. That's 16 kts. Going to be hard to hit Honduras. It would have to track to 284.6 deg. from the current location to hit Honduras, that's 20 degrees off its current heading. A southern Belize hit would require a heading of 280.5 deg. Not impossible, but not likely given the strength of the ridge and the 16kt forward speed.

[Vigilant]

From NHC 5:30p.m.


Target area

[miamicanes177]

New 3hr motion based on 2315Z to 0215Z satellite imagery 48nm toward 265 deg. That's 16 kts. Going to be hard to hit Honduras. It would have to track to 284.6 deg. from the current location to hit Honduras, that's 20 degrees off its current heading. A southern Belize hit would require a heading of 280.5 deg. Not impossible, but not likely given the strength of the ridge and the 16kt forward speed.

This will be horrible for Honduras. Just ask Derek Ortt. He said it does not matter about the winds, it is the rain that matters. The center can pass wherever. The rain is what will be the most deadly. This hurricane is not a "point". The effects will be felt over a wide area even though the hurricane is rather compact.

[wxman57]

New 3hr motion based on 2315Z to 0215Z satellite imagery 48nm toward 265 deg. That's 16 kts. Going to be hard to hit Honduras. It would have to track to 284.6 deg. from the current location to hit Honduras, that's 20 degrees off its current heading. A southern Belize hit would require a heading of 280.5 deg. Not impossible, but not likely given the strength of the ridge and the 16kt forward speed.

This will be horrible for Honduras. Just ask Derek Ortt. He said it does not matter about the winds, it is the rain that matters. The center can pass wherever. The rain is what will be the most deadly. This hurricane is not a "point". The effects will be felt over a wide area even though the hurricane is rather compact.

You are correct, this landfall point will be as bad or worse than if the center did hit Honduras. Rain will be a major problem for Honduras.

[wxman57]

NHC must be moving the track south again, thus the delay in the advisory. Looks pretty straightforward now.

[philnyc]

NHC must be moving the track south again, thus the delay in the advisory. Looks pretty straightforward now.

Absolutely. This is going due west. If anything it may make go slightly west-southwst for a while. It is clearly landfalling in Nicaragua, as wxmann_57 has been saying for a long time. Though, as it's been said here, Honduras will take a very serious, if not catastrophic, beating too, from the rain due to orographic effects.

[Vigilant]

Correct me if Puerto Cabezas (Nicaragua) is the nearest town in Felix's path.
Here a link of Puerto Cabezas. Hope those villages are better structured since the video is 10 years old.
http://www.pto-cabezas.com/

[miamicanes177]

NHC forecaster Franklin states:

"Felix is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain across northern
Nicaragua and much of Honduras...with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches. These rains will likely produce life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Felix is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some strengthening is expected in the final hours prior to
landfall."

20 inches estimates is way up from the previous 12 inches estimate. This is a potentially catastrophic event shaping up.

[Brent]

[wxman57]

Well, that NHC track doesn't make sense. To get to their 21hr forecast point Felix would have to move at 291 deg. It's not showing any sign of doing that. Wonder why they're reluctant to drop the track south in the face of overwhelming evidence it's not heading for Belize? I just don't see much to indicate their WNW movement. At least they don't bring it back up to hurricane strength at that point.

[wxmann_91]

This is going to be devastating if it hits Puerto Cabezas. The southern end of the hurricane warning is at Puerto Cabezas.

[philnyc]

"000
WTNT41 KNHC 040250
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA SINCE 21Z...BUT THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
APPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. AN 18Z MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWED THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAD FORMED...AND OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DECAYED IN INFRARED IMAGES AND
THE OUTER FEATURE IS NOW MORE PROMINENT. RAW OBJECTIVE DVORAK
NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...UP TO T6.7...BUT I'M
GUESSING THAT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT YET
RECOVERED FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE
HOURS FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE WIND
FIELD. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT...WITH SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS.
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND
05Z."


OK, there's your EWRC. Although it certainly wasn't very evident on the IR images. The wide red band was not an outer eyewall. At any rate, I can now say that I've still never seen a cat4 or 5 that didn't undergo an EWRC... But I will have to see the microwave sat images since this will be the smallest EWRC I've ever heard of.

[theworld]

we have some intensification goings on...

[RDTF]

NHC must be moving the track south again, thus the delay in the advisory. Looks pretty straightforward now.

from the 11:00 pm statement (forecaster Franklin)


The official forecast has been shifted a
little to the south of the previous advisory and now keeps Felix
entirely over land. As a result of the southward adjustment in the
track forecast...the intensity forecast is adjusted sharply
downward after 12 hours...and if the track forecast verifies the
small circulation of Felix is likely to dissipate much earlier than
shown below.

[RL3AO]

I still think the track is too far north, but I'm not a pro.