Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models
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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models
375
WHXX01 KWBC 032030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2030 UTC MON SEP 3 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070903 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 0600 070904 1800 070905 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 78.4W 30.4N 78.3W 30.1N 78.4W 29.6N 78.8W
BAMD 30.7N 78.4W 29.9N 77.7W 29.1N 77.0W 28.6N 76.2W
BAMM 30.7N 78.4W 30.1N 78.1W 29.6N 77.7W 29.2N 77.7W
LBAR 30.7N 78.4W 30.3N 77.2W 30.3N 76.4W 30.6N 75.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 79.8W 30.1N 83.6W 33.0N 86.6W 36.0N 87.0W
BAMD 28.9N 75.5W 28.6N 76.4W 28.1N 78.3W 28.4N 79.7W
BAMM 29.0N 78.1W 28.8N 80.1W 28.9N 82.6W 29.2N 84.0W
LBAR 31.4N 74.8W 33.1N 72.3W 34.5N 67.7W 37.2N 64.3W
SHIP 51KTS 51KTS 52KTS 50KTS
DSHP 51KTS 51KTS 31KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.7N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 81.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
WHXX01 KWBC 032030
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2030 UTC MON SEP 3 2007
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070903 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 1800 070904 0600 070904 1800 070905 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.7N 78.4W 30.4N 78.3W 30.1N 78.4W 29.6N 78.8W
BAMD 30.7N 78.4W 29.9N 77.7W 29.1N 77.0W 28.6N 76.2W
BAMM 30.7N 78.4W 30.1N 78.1W 29.6N 77.7W 29.2N 77.7W
LBAR 30.7N 78.4W 30.3N 77.2W 30.3N 76.4W 30.6N 75.6W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 46KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.4N 79.8W 30.1N 83.6W 33.0N 86.6W 36.0N 87.0W
BAMD 28.9N 75.5W 28.6N 76.4W 28.1N 78.3W 28.4N 79.7W
BAMM 29.0N 78.1W 28.8N 80.1W 28.9N 82.6W 29.2N 84.0W
LBAR 31.4N 74.8W 33.1N 72.3W 34.5N 67.7W 37.2N 64.3W
SHIP 51KTS 51KTS 52KTS 50KTS
DSHP 51KTS 51KTS 31KTS 33KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.7N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 30.7N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 90DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 30.7N LONM24 = 81.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
Meso, I just want to say I appreciate all the effort you put forth in posting these model results. Keep up the good work! Now, on the Euro results you may want to post the 144 hr result as it LFs on the GA coast and goes inland from there.
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
EURO
Although I`m not sure this is the system it's showing since it appears to coming off the coast on FL in like 144 hours..Hrmm
If you look at he loop from ECMWF you see 99.INVEST coming in from the east, making landfall in Georgia I think, then going NE to the ocean again.
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- vacanechaser
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
18z nam shows a pretty good 500mb vort max under a building ridge as it, the ridge, shifts east
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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- hurricanetrack
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It even looks like a hurricane on the 18Z surface map:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif
Look at the "eye" like feature in the middle. Kind of interesting to see that on the GFS when it cannot even pick out a sub 930 hurricane in the deep tropics.
We shall see- this will be the best chance of a landfalling TC so far since Ernesto.
Doh! Forgot about Erin....sorry....getting too wrapped up in all of this!
Doh again! And Barry but geez, that was pretty weak....
oops.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144m.gif
Look at the "eye" like feature in the middle. Kind of interesting to see that on the GFS when it cannot even pick out a sub 930 hurricane in the deep tropics.
We shall see- this will be the best chance of a landfalling TC so far since Ernesto.
Doh! Forgot about Erin....sorry....getting too wrapped up in all of this!
Doh again! And Barry but geez, that was pretty weak....
oops.
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- vacanechaser
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
18z gfs, this is as close i guess as it gets this run to the carolina coast... almost to hatteras, but then out
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re:
I've been drooling over that model run, not to wish harm on anyone but because how good the swell would be for my area. My wishcasting is a hurricane heading towards jax so I can get out of work for a few days.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
WHXX04 KWBC 032321
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 30.5 78.1 90./ 5.0
6 30.3 77.5 111./ 5.8
12 30.2 76.5 96./ 8.9
18 30.0 75.5 97./ 8.5
24 30.3 73.8 82./15.0
30 30.6 72.8 70./ 8.8
36 31.0 71.8 68./ 9.3
42 31.6 71.0 56./ 9.7
48 31.8 70.5 71./ 3.9
54 31.6 69.7 100./ 7.1
60 32.1 69.0 56./ 7.5
66 32.0 68.7 103./ 3.0
72 32.0 68.2 93./ 4.3
78 32.0 68.3 284./ 1.1
84 31.8 69.0 250./ 6.9
90 31.8 69.3 274./ 2.3
96 32.1 70.1 291./ 7.0
102 32.5 70.2 339./ 4.4
108 33.3 70.8 325./ 9.3
114 34.1 70.9 350./ 8.2
120 35.0 70.7 15./ 9.7
126 36.1 70.2 23./10.9
18z GFDL
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L
INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 30.5 78.1 90./ 5.0
6 30.3 77.5 111./ 5.8
12 30.2 76.5 96./ 8.9
18 30.0 75.5 97./ 8.5
24 30.3 73.8 82./15.0
30 30.6 72.8 70./ 8.8
36 31.0 71.8 68./ 9.3
42 31.6 71.0 56./ 9.7
48 31.8 70.5 71./ 3.9
54 31.6 69.7 100./ 7.1
60 32.1 69.0 56./ 7.5
66 32.0 68.7 103./ 3.0
72 32.0 68.2 93./ 4.3
78 32.0 68.3 284./ 1.1
84 31.8 69.0 250./ 6.9
90 31.8 69.3 274./ 2.3
96 32.1 70.1 291./ 7.0
102 32.5 70.2 339./ 4.4
108 33.3 70.8 325./ 9.3
114 34.1 70.9 350./ 8.2
120 35.0 70.7 15./ 9.7
126 36.1 70.2 23./10.9
18z GFDL
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- cycloneye
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 29.1N 71.6W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.09.2007 29.1N 71.6W WEAK
00UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2007 29.8N 70.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2007 27.1N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2007 27.0N 74.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2007 27.2N 75.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2007 27.3N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2007 27.6N 77.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2007 28.0N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
I didnt saw the UKMET posted so here it is.
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I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation
at least after it goes across Florida that is.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation
at least after it goes across Florida that is.
Last edited by jhamps10 on Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- vacanechaser
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
here is the hwrf... passing east of hatteras as a hurricane
and further north as a 105mph hurricane just offshore of the delaware virginia coast
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
and further north as a 105mph hurricane just offshore of the delaware virginia coast
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re:
jhamps10 wrote:I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation
at least after it goes across Florida that is.
What's even worse with this model, and I'm not all that familiar with it, it takes Felix into the BOC and them moves it north in the GOM....
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Re:
jhamps10 wrote:I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation
at least after it goes across Florida that is.
link is not working for me...can you resend it please, thanks
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Re: Invest 99L: Global & BAM Models
vacanechaser wrote:here is the hwrf...
and further north as a 105mph hurricane just offshore of the delaware virginia coast
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
Bob revisited?
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- vacanechaser
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Re:
jhamps10 wrote:I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation
at least after it goes across Florida that is.
dont see what you are talking about... link does not work either
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: Re:
wzrgirl1 wrote:jhamps10 wrote:I know that this model is one of the unliked ones on here, however it paints a scary path for 99L. Kinda like that storm from 2 years ago I won't even name.....
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation
at least after it goes across Florida that is.
link is not working for me...can you resend it please, thanks
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation
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