Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

You can't create seperate threads. 98L already has a thread. Please
use that. for organization. Board Rules.

[cycloneye]

Dont worrie folks,I merged that thread with the main 98L one.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Also if 98L develops fast it goes north of the islands

and also the trough will nudge it north slightly of the islands, and
then the ridge is progged to build next week again
forcing 98L on a westward path...

[boca]

Is the circulation or should I say the mid level circulation on the far eastern part of this odd cloud mass of 98L?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Sanibel]

It should stay weak as long as Felix is strong.

[punkyg]

Lets bring out the snacks and drinks cause 98L is moving into lower wind shear hoorah!

[RL3AO]

True, but I need more people to post in this thread, because it is potentially the system that could cause greater damage to our country.

There is a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean. People are not going to go out of there way to follow a wave that is at least 2 days from development.

[Pebbles]

You might find some people willing to 'chit chat' more about it in the chat room if your looking for more rapid conversation

['CaneFreak]

True, but I need more people to post in this thread, because it is potentially the system that could cause greater damage to our country.

Don't fret dude. Its over 1600 miles away from the US and it will more than likely not effect the US. Why? Because more than likely an upper level trough helping to vent Felix at the present moment will come and tear the system apart. I am more concerned with the implications of the system east of Georgia at the present moment and its potential impact on the US.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It should stay weak as long as Felix is strong.

In september we can typically see several simultaneous storms
and felix is far away so I think this could develop and possibly
get pretty strong over warm waters and then as it tracks
under a building ridge things could get really interesting....

[boca]

I have been concerned about 98L for days since its further north than Felix started.If Jeff Masters is right about that trough and then the high builds in again thats a senario that scares me.A possible well developed storm skirting north of PR and DR and heading WNW into SE Bahamas and threatening SE Florida and praying it pulls a Floyd and turns north right before it gets here. All this is speculation if it even develops.

[jhamps10]

So...do you GUYS think that 98L will DEVELOP or go POOF?

my vote goes for development, but slow.maybe no TD until Tuesday night at the earliest.

[Blown Away]

I've been posting on 98L all day, where were all you guys? The shear map says 98L should be under 10-15kt shear rate now, sure does not look like that on the satellite, still looks like it is getting torn up, but it is persistent.

[artist]

blown away - is that 10-15 kts. surface?

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE
EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Blown Away]

I understand the basics of shear and that 98L is under shear, explain how the convection only fires on the SW side?

[windstorm99]

Copy and paste from the NHC...Seems reasonable as 98L might still have a chance as it moves into a more favorable environment.Adrian

[cycloneye]

I understand the basics of shear and that 98L is under shear, explain how the convection only fires on the SW side?

A Mid Level high pressure is blowing from NE to SW the clouds.

[Patrick99]

Yeah, I'd rather look at 98L myself; it's where the bigger question marks are. Felix is about as done a deal as it gets in the tropics....signed, sealed and delivered with good model agreement. Hard to believe the two big systems this year so far have been so relentlessly straight and predictable.

[boca]

Yeah, I'd rather look at 98L myself; it's where the bigger question marks are. Felix is about as done a deal as it gets in the tropics....signed, sealed and delivered with good model agreement. Hard to believe the two big systems this year so far have been so relentlessly straight and predictable.

Remember Frances and Jean in 2004. They both hit within 5 miles of each other but 3 weeks apart.