Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[cycloneye]

[windstorm99]

Jeff masters...

A strong trough of low pressure will pass north of 98L Tuesday and Wednesday, which could impart a more northwesterly motion to the storm. The GFDL and HWRF models have 98L moving to a position about 800 miles east of Puerto Rico by Thursday. A ridge of high pressure should build in after the trough passes, forcing 98L on a more westward track towards Puerto Rico.

If 98L does indeed intensify it may feel the tug.

[windstorm99]

[fasterdisaster]

Can someone explain to me what the significance was of XTRP again?

[JtSmarts]

Can someone explain to me what the significance was of XTRP again?

It's just the extrapolation of the current movement.

[canegrl04]

Haven't seen the latest SSTs for the GOM,but I imagine they are still pretty warm.They have been untouched by a hurricane so far,and should 98L become Gabrielle and enter it,look out!

[Category 5]

Can someone explain to me what the significance was of XTRP again?

Basically shows where it would go if it kept going the same direction with no wobbles or anything. Just straight.

[hial2]

Haven't seen the latest SSTs for the GOM,but I imagine they are still pretty warm.They have been untouched by a hurricane so far,and should 98L become Gabrielle and enter it,look out!

There is nothing out that remotely resembles a T/C going anywhere near the GOM (or anywhere else)..but worry not..eventually you will get your wish.

[CrazyC83]

Haven't seen the latest SSTs for the GOM,but I imagine they are still pretty warm.They have been untouched by a hurricane so far,and should 98L become Gabrielle and enter it,look out!

There is nothing out that remotely resembles a T/C going anywhere near the GOM (or anywhere else)..but worry not..eventually you will get your wish.

If it becomes Gabrielle, it is probably headed a similar road that Dean and Felix have taken. They say bad things come in threes...

[canegrl04]

Haven't seen the latest SSTs for the GOM,but I imagine they are still pretty warm.They have been untouched by a hurricane so far,and should 98L become Gabrielle and enter it,look out!

There is nothing out that remotely resembles a T/C going anywhere near the GOM (or anywhere else)..but worry not..eventually you will get your wish.

Read windstorm99 post above about Jeff Masters.. Please stop accusing me of wanting a Gulf cane .How stupid

[cycloneye]

Ok,stop this now.Continue with the topic in hand here.

[punkyg]

Hi, guys how the wind shear over 98L is it better then earlier?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Shear is decreasing over this system at 5-10 knots. With shear over it now between 15-18 knots...That is why convection trying to reform closer to the center. Also as it starting moving faster westward around the base of the eye, the shear will have less of effect on the system...

[punkyg]

Can you pull up a shear map please.

[Ptarmigan]

If the convection persists for another day or two, it could develop soon, likely TD8 and eventually Gabrielle.

[CrazyC83]

If the convection persists for another day or two, it could develop soon, likely TD8 and eventually Gabrielle.

It would be TD7, not TD8. If it gets to Gabrielle, look out! I think we could have monster #3 if she gets a chance...

[Ptarmigan]

It would be TD7, not TD8. If it gets to Gabrielle, look out! I think we could have monster #3 if she gets a chance...

My bad. Every TD this season has developed into a TS and hurricane. Quite amazing.

[Pebbles]

This belongs in the 98L thread

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Post in the 98L thread as per board rules

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrshr.gif

10-15kt shear, should be able to develop under that, assuming the maps are correct. I would say 98L must be under stronger shear than 10-15kt, because it it getting torn apart.