Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[artist]

Artist, CLP5 is just a statistical model based on past storms at this location. It's simply used as a marker for historical climatology. The dynamical models show that ridging will prevent it from going out to sea - at least in the 5 day period.

thanks ronjon!

[cycloneye]

What a persistant well defined low fighting the bad enviroment in that area.

[CrazyC83]

How this blob is fighting it deserves to become Gabrielle...

[canegrl04]

All it needs to do is hold together for another day and this IS going to become TD8

[CrazyC83]

All it needs to do is hold together for another day and this IS going to become TD8

You mean TD7? (Unless the east coast blob forms first)

[windstorm99]

All it needs to do is hold together for another day and this IS going to become TD8

I agree.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Watch this follow the base of the subtropical high pressure right into the caribbean. The more west it go's the more favorable to.

[CrazyC83]

Watch this follow the base of the subtropical high pressure right into the caribbean. The more west it go's the more favorable to.

Felix's little sister perhaps? Unless the east coast low quickly forms and develops, there is nothing to turn this thing north...

[Sanibel]

We had a big thunderhead sheared off badly ENE to WSW over the island just now. That is the steering ridge.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If this gets into the base zone and moves to 50-55 west. It should do the same thing or close to what the last two did. I don't know about little if it does develop.

[cycloneye]

How this blob is fighting it deserves to become Gabrielle...

Crazy,here we are vigilant to that system,we meaning the goverment,civil defense,to see what this will do in terms of developing and the future track.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 12N39W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAIN LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED...AND DISPLACED TO THE W/NW OF
THE CENTER WITH PERSISTENT UPPER E/SE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM S OF
A STRONG UPPER HIGH. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN
40W-44W. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL
WAVE AXIS THIS LOW HAS BEEN ALONG THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BE
DROPPED FROM THE 03/0000 UTC MAP SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CYCLONIC
TURNING NOTED OUTSIDE OF ITS IMMEDIATE VICINITY. HOWEVER...THE
BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING FURTHER W BETWEEN 50W-58W HAS A
MORE CLASSIC INVERTED V SHAPE AND SEEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME
SYSTEM OVERALL. THUS...A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY OF 54W
WILL REMAIN ON THE NEXT ANALYSIS.

[CrazyC83]

How this blob is fighting it deserves to become Gabrielle...

Crazy,here we are vigilant to that system,we meaning the goverment,civil defense,to see what this will do in terms of developing and the future track.

How this season has gone, could this not only become Gabrielle, but yet another monster? There is nothing to turn this north, so it will be following Felix...

[windstorm99]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0053 UTC MON SEP 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070903 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 0000 070903 1200 070904 0000 070904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.4N 39.2W 11.3N 40.3W 11.1N 41.1W 10.7N 42.1W
BAMD 11.4N 39.2W 11.3N 41.1W 11.3N 43.1W 11.4N 45.0W
BAMM 11.4N 39.2W 11.3N 40.8W 11.3N 42.3W 11.3N 43.8W
LBAR 11.4N 39.2W 11.2N 40.8W 11.2N 42.4W 11.3N 44.2W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 0000 070906 0000 070907 0000 070908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 42.9W 11.3N 43.6W 13.1N 44.3W 16.0N 47.6W
BAMD 11.5N 46.9W 11.9N 50.6W 12.6N 54.3W 13.5N 57.6W
BAMM 11.5N 45.1W 12.3N 47.9W 13.3N 50.7W 14.6N 53.6W
LBAR 11.7N 46.0W 12.7N 49.7W 13.7N 53.8W 14.2N 57.3W
SHIP 28KTS 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS
DSHP 28KTS 35KTS 37KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.4N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 38.7W DIRM12 = 245DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 37.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[cycloneye]

[Hockey007]

the GFDL went crazy from Dean + Felix... It's been giving some interesting scenarios recently.

[artist]

so according to the last report the new model runs will be initiated much further west it seems. Am I reading that right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes, also convection is starting to increase.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe they should redirect the Hurricane Hunters to the much safer 98L?