Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Duddy]

I just heard on Fox News that the NWS has said that Felix is now unpredictable.

[ROCK]

I just heard on Fox News that the NWS has said that Felix is now unpredictable.

and so it begins....

[Steve Cosby]

Quick question: If the GFDL is based on the GFS will it be any better??

Nope.

[Steve Cosby]

I just heard on Fox News that the NWS has said that Felix is now unpredictable.

and so it begins....

Where would this be untrue on any tropical cyclone?

Predictability is by degree - NHC says don't trust the Day 4/5 positions. That sounds pretty well unpredictable to me.

[canegrl04]

I just heard on Fox News that the NWS has said that Felix is now unpredictable.

Its going to be a wild ride the next few days.It all depends on the strength of the ridge.If it erodes enugh,Felix will be a GOM threat

[njweather]

I just heard on Fox News that the NWS has said that Felix is now unpredictable.

Its going to be a wild ride the next few days.It all depends on the strength of the ridge.If it erodes enugh,Felix will be a GOM threat

Ah, unpredictability means nonstop excitement on the forums

[Recurve]

Its going to be a wild ride the next few days.It all depends on the strength of the ridge.If it erodes enugh,Felix will be a GOM threat

Not sure that's true. It's still going to take stronger steering to make it a threat to more than the BOC coast IMHO. Less certainty than with Dean though. Will the UL conditions pay attention to the models?

The post ABOVE is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Duddy]

I just heard on Fox News that the NWS has said that Felix is now unpredictable.

Its going to be a wild ride the next few days.It all depends on the strength of the ridge.If it erodes enugh,Felix will be a GOM threat

Ah, unpredictability means nonstop excitement on the forums

This sucks, this is my 1st season on Storm2K.

When Dean was a threat to the Gulf, I spent MANY hours a day on this board and that really mad my wife mad at me.

Looks like I might have some more nights on the couch coming...

[ROCK]

I just heard on Fox News that the NWS has said that Felix is now unpredictable.

and so it begins....

Where would this be untrue on any tropical cyclone?

Predictability is by degree - NHC says don't trust the Day 4/5 positions. That sounds pretty well unpredictable to me.

I meant the hype..... I agree felix is unpredictable at 3-5 days out attm. A lot of players coming on to the field in the coming days.

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Well, the storm has started its WNW this afternoon, but no real big changes to report this afternoon. I still believe that Felix will track along the northern end of the cone making a first landfall along the central to northern Yucatan and NOT Belize or Nicaragua or Honduras. So the WNW should continue and begin to switch to between WNW and NW with a marked slowing in forward speed before Felix makes landfall along the central to northern Yucatan. IMO The stall or real slow down that some have mentioned as a possibility is more likely to come upon the emergence of Felix off the Yucatan and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Its after the stall that I would look for the real change in heading going from NW to NNW in the western Gulf.

[Opal storm]

Well, the storm has started its WNW this afternoon, but no real big changes to report this afternoon. I still believe that Felix will track along the northern end of the cone making a first landfall along the central to northern Yucatan and NOT Belize or Nicaragua or Honduras. So the WNW should continue and begin to switch to between WNW and NW with a marked slowing in forward speed before Felix makes landfall along the central to northern Yucatan. IMO The stall or real slow down that some have mentioned as a possibility is more likely to come upon the emergence of Felix off the Yucatan and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Its after the stall that I would look for the real change in heading going from NW to NNW in the western Gulf.

So...you see a weakness in the ridge?

[cajungal]

The 18z GFS is rolling out. Here's the 500mb at 84 hours...ridge pushing east as trough digs down.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

This was posted by a respected member of our own local weather board, and thought I would share, because I find it very interesting.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Our local tv met here in south la was just saying how uncertain the track is once Felix crosses the Yucatan. Says by Thursday there will be weak high pressure in the Atlantic east of Florida weakening and moving more east and a trough coming through Texas. In my opinion I don't put much stock in it as of now but you never know. He really didn't sound any alarms just said we really need to watch it towards the mid part of the week for any verifications. Don't shoot the messenger just relaying what I saw.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Well, the storm has started its WNW this afternoon, but no real big changes to report this afternoon. I still believe that Felix will track along the northern end of the cone making a first landfall along the central to northern Yucatan and NOT Belize or Nicaragua or Honduras. So the WNW should continue and begin to switch to between WNW and NW with a marked slowing in forward speed before Felix makes landfall along the central to northern Yucatan. IMO The stall or real slow down that some have mentioned as a possibility is more likely to come upon the emergence of Felix off the Yucatan and into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Its after the stall that I would look for the real change in heading going from NW to NNW in the western Gulf.

I put the storm2k disclaimer as it is needed.

[jhamps10]

Our local tv met here in south la was just saying how uncertain the track is once Felix crosses the Yucatan. Says by Thursday there will be weak high pressure in the Atlantic east of Florida weakening and moving more east and a trough coming through Texas. In my opinion I don't put much stock in it as of now but you never know. He really didn't sound any alarms just said we really need to watch it towards the mid part of the week for any verifications. Don't shoot the messenger just relaying what I saw.

what channel was that?

sounds like a interesting thought, and plausible.

[Portastorm]

This sucks, this is my 1st season on Storm2K.

When Dean was a threat to the Gulf, I spent MANY hours a day on this board and that really mad my wife mad at me.

Looks like I might have some more nights on the couch coming...

LOL! Join the club Duddy! Well, keep your PC or laptop fired up so at least you can track Felix while you're out on the couch!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 18z GFS is rolling out. Here's the 500mb at 84 hours...ridge pushing east as trough digs down.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

This was posted by a respected member of our own local weather board, and thought I would share, because I find it very interesting.

the 18z is already out. It does show a stronger trough and a weaker ridge, but it doesn't really handle Felix well. It initializes Felix a bit better, but within just a few hours it weakens it to a >1008mb low and eventually moves it into Belize before showing the storm going poof into nothingness. Not very believable, IMO.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It was our local tv met here in Baton Rouge, LA. According to the map cajungal posted it looks very possible, but as I said that is a long time off and as we all know things can change in a very short time.

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Opal I do see a weakness in the ridge. Most of the experts see a trough or weakness along the Texas Gulf Coast around that time (Day 5). One of our resident experts has looked at models that say that the trough will evaporate though and the ridge build back in and push Felix across the Bay of Campeche and into the Mexican Mainland well south of Texas. But I'm not so sure. For one thing I think Felix will cross the central to northern Yucatan and not make the Belize landfall. Its more likely to feel the weaknes a little early as it crosses at a more northerly lat. Also, I think the trough will be "weak" enough to induce Felix on an eventual NW to NNW course in the GOM. I can't even totally rule out due north, but I favor a final NNW course in the western GOM, with landfall between Victoria Tex and Morgan City La. Strictly my amateur opinion.

[jhamps10]

The 18z GFS is rolling out. Here's the 500mb at 84 hours...ridge pushing east as trough digs down.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

This was posted by a respected member of our own local weather board, and thought I would share, because I find it very interesting.

the 18z is already out. It does show a stronger trough and a weaker ridge, but it doesn't really handle Felix well. It initializes Felix a bit better, but within just a few hours it weakens it to a >1008mb low and eventually moves it into Belize before showing the storm going poof into nothingness. Not very believable, IMO.

yeah it does sound a litle odd to me. I would think should the ridge be weaker, we see a northern track, but we don't know since GFS kills Felix.