Invest 98L,Central Atlantic

[Blown Away]

Question: Is the convection attached or detached to the LLC along the SW side? It appears once it builds a little it get's blown off. The LLC seems to be getting larger, is that a sign that it is opening up?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[caneman]

I don't think anyobdy has been writing it off but clearly it got scalped and had a major setback. Yesterday it looked like it could get named by today. So there has been at least a 48 hours setback if it can even come back or get a favorable environment in time..

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:


A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 12N39W MOVING W 10 KT. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND IN AN
EARLIER QSCAT PASS CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF
THE CENTER...STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER E/SELY FLOW ON THE SW
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STRETCHES FAIRLY FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
41W-47W...ENHANCED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

$$
CANGIALOSI

[cycloneye]

02/1745 UTC 11.7N 39.1W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Well defined low center is still exposed.

[BigA]

Looking on this map, it appears that the low will be moving into an environment of less shear (and warmer SSTs) tomorrow.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[punkyg]

Looking on this map, it appears that the low will be moving into an environment of less shear (and warmer SSTs) tomorrow.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

If it survives that long which i think it will.

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

The LLC shows no weakening whatsoever and convection is still developing. What is working against the system, and it's hard to tell after speedy Dean and Félix, is that the system doesn't look to be moving very fast to avoid the Ely shear.

[Ptarmigan]

If the convection persists by Monday, I would not be surprised if 98L becomes a TD.

[cycloneye]

Is moving 240 degrees at 7kts,almost crawling.

[x-y-no]

Is moving 240 degrees at 7kts,almost crawling.

Yeah, that's due to the ridge wrapping around in front of it. Looks like like this WSW course is going to continue for a while.

[artist]

I love the look of it in that loop at this moment - looks like it is just shoving everthing in its path. I hope this does not come to fruition, though.

[artist]

since the clip is used to see if the info is wrong in the models does that mean most of these are wrong now?

[ronjon]

Artist, CLP5 is just a statistical model based on past storms at this location. It's simply used as a marker for historical climatology. The dynamical models show that ridging will prevent it from going out to sea - at least in the 5 day period.

[boca]

In all honesty 98L will be no longer if it doesn't pulse up tonight. If it does develop will it follow Dean and Felix down the same road.

[HURAKAN]

ABNT20 KNHC 022129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE
EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[cycloneye]

NHC continues fairly bullish with it.

[hial2]

. If it does develop will it follow Dean and Felix down the same road.

All depends on what happens @ area off Fla/Ga,IMO..

[punkyg]

I just look at some pics of 98L and saw some convection curved inwards.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-vis.html

Continues to produce convection but shear is too strong.

[artist]

In all honesty 98L will be no longer if it doesn't pulse up tonight. If it does develop will it follow Dean and Felix down the same road.

boca - can you tell us why it would follow them? Is there any chance it might not?