Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[ronjon]

In the other Felix thread I calculated a 285 deg heading during the last 7 hours of movement - fits the 18Z extrapolation line nicely.

[Furious George]

The tight clustering of the models should give a pretty high confidence level (minus the GFDL). Don't think the NHC will have any major change at 5 pm. Starting to feel a little realived here in the upper tx coast with models no longer trending north. Also hoping Felix passes north enough of Honduras to prevent a major catasrophe.

[Stratosphere747]

Key to the 12z Euro is to see if it shows any breakdown in the High. 0z hinted at it.

[ronjon]

12Z HWRF:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007090212-felix06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[wxmann_91]

As long as Euro stays it course, I'm banking on a Belize landfall. The GFS and Euro actually are in pretty good concurrence on the 500mb pattern through 120hr. The Euro is slightly stronger with the 500mb ridge in the SE... which makes the difference between Felix going to Yucatan vs. a major catastrophe in Honduras. Right now, I'm banking on the Euro, it has proven to outperform all other global models WRT the synoptic pattern.

BTW, no models indicate any threat to TX whatsoever; the shortwave is weak and progressive and won't be strong enough to recurve Felix given its latitude. It will perhaps nudge Felix a few degrees higher in latitude whilst over the Yucatan, but in the end, it will be a Mexico/Ctrl America storm.

[ronjon]

FSU MM5 model for entertainment purposes:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007090212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[HouTXmetro]

FSU MM5 model for entertainment purposes:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007090212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Talk about Northerly outlier. That takes Felix into New Orleans!!!

[Pearl River]

HouTXmetro

ronjon wrote:
FSU MM5 model for entertainment purposes:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45 ... =Animation


Talk about Northerly outlier. That takes Felix into New Orleans!!!

FSU MM5 model for entertainment purposes:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007090212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Talk about Northerly outlier. That takes Felix into New Orleans!!!

Now that's comedic entertainment.

[cycloneye]

Anyone has the 12z EURO?

[Stratosphere747]

I'll let the pros or better amateurs chime in on the 12z Euro. Looks a bit different.

[wxmann_91]

I'll let the pros or better amateurs chime in on the 12z Euro. Looks a bit different.

It looks exactly the same, from what I see.

[Stratosphere747]

I'll let the pros or better amateurs chime in on the 12z Euro. Looks a bit different.

It looks exactly the same, from what I see.

I could be getting caught up with how it is handling Henriette.

[HouTXmetro]

I'll let the pros or better amateurs chime in on the 12z Euro. Looks a bit different.

It looks exactly the same, from what I see.

I could be getting caught up with how it is handling Henriette.

elaborate please?

[jhamps10]

FSU MM5 model for entertainment purposes:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007090212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

who wants to bet that a certain media outlet will publish that on-air.

I won't name the channel, other than it relies HEAVY on Accuweather.

[wiggles]

Gee you can't be talking about fox news could you.

[Jagno]

OMG, I truley hope they don't. This would cause sooooooo much worry and concern that folks won't sleep for days.

[HouTXmetro]

Will someone elaborate on the latest Euro

[jhamps10]

OMG, I truley hope they don't. This would cause sooooooo much worry and concern that folks won't sleep for days.

oh well the media hype will begin soon anyway, 5pm advisory has it forecast to go to cat 5 by tuesday morning.

[Portastorm]

Will someone elaborate on the latest Euro

The 12z run moves Felix into Honduras, across the peninsula, and out into the Pacific.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Will someone elaborate on the latest Euro

Looks the same.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 5070500!!/