Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

66 hours surface

East of Belize.

[Incident_MET]

x-y no...follow the 850 mb vort center for a better representation of center than following sfc pressures.

[Derek Ortt]

the GFS can resolve Felix. It has a 27km resolution initially

I refuse to even consider the rest of this run, but then again, I do not use the GFS for forecasting

[canegrl04]

FOX NEWS minutes ago :HURRICANE FELIX NOW ON AN UNPREDICTABLE PATH .I'm assuming they got this statement from the NHC. Holy Crap have things changed since yesterday

[cycloneye]

66 hours at 850 vorticity

East of Belize

[Stratosphere747]

High still holding strong. Should begin to see any changes at about 108hrs if it's in the cards.

[canetracker]

72 hr 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_072l.gif

78 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_078l.gif

[cycloneye]

78 hours 850 Vorticity

Landfall in Belize.

[ronjon]

The key to this 4 to 5 day forecast and I won't speculate beyond that is the strength of the 500 mb trough over the central states in 5 days. This mornings GFS had that trough a little stronger than yesterdays runs, all the way down from the northern plains to TX. This feature, as well as the actual forward motion of Felix, are the two key variables to this forecast. One run that bothered me, and I'm sure it was just an anomalous one, was the 06Z HWRF. This model this year was introduced as on par with the GFDL - we'll see after Felix. Anyway, it stalls the storm just east of Belize and then slowly tracks it north along the east coast of the Yucatan. If this storm slows considerably or stalls, in the NW caribbean, then we are in for some major changes with the future track. I don't think that is likely now but still a reasonable possibility. We have to remember that the models are not real good when troughs interact with ridges because the timing is so important to directional movement (i.e. Charley). I don't see a dramatic situation like Charley but again we need to see how sharp that 500 mb trough becomes on Sept 7th.

[gatorcane]

This run is not legit. The GFS initialized it way too weak and it will tend to move it west with the low-level flow...

[x-y-no]

Huh ... 12Z GFS initializes Felix as an open 1012mb low?

I don't understand that ...

I think I read that a Met somewhere say it can not do it as a storm maybe because of the resolution,anyway I think he was pointing out the GFS ability to prog the steering dynamics.

I know the resolution issue, but it's not as bad as that. Remember that the GFS depicted Dean quite clearly all along.

The 6Z run at least depicted a 1008mb closed low at initialization. This initialization is much worse.

[canetracker]

84 hr 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

90 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

That trough is really digging into TX on this run!

[gatorcane]

It's way too south on this track. Even farther south than earlier.

I don't buy it.

Look at that trough digging into Texas....that would have to pull it NW to N very shortly in the run.

[cycloneye]

90 hours 850 Vorticity

Over Yucatan

[x-y-no]

x-y no...follow the 850 mb vort center for a better representation of center than following sfc pressures.

Yes, I do that ... but my issue here was a different one: the initialization for this run is actually weaker than the previous run. We've got a 980mb (or less) Cat 2 hurricane out there. I'd like to see that initialized as a closed low. Doesn't have to be 980mb - I'd be happy with, say, 1000mb at initialization - but if it doesn't even see a closed low it's hard to see how it's going to get the dynamics right.

[Stratosphere747]

This run is not legit. The GFS initialized it way too weak and it will tend to move it west with the low-level flow...

Welcome to the history of Felix and the GFS. It's nothing new.

[canetracker]

96 hr 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_096l.gif

102 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_102l.gif

[cycloneye]

102 hours at 850 vorticity

Feet is wet now.

[Incident_MET]

x-y no...follow the 850 mb vort center for a better representation of center than following sfc pressures.

Yes, I do that ... but my issue here was a different one: the initialization for this run is actually weaker than the previous run. We've got a 980mb (or less) Cat 2 hurricane out there. I'd like to see that initialized as a closed low. Doesn't have to be 980mb - I'd be happy with, say, 1000mb at initialization - but if it doesn't even see a closed low it's hard to see how it's going to get the dynamics right.

Yeah...that is a problem. Im still seeing the medium range as a crapshoot. Following track trends on the models as well as depictions of the strength of the ridge over the Gulf of Mex is what I am doing. will be interesting to see if trough extension from slow moving sys over Atlc waters will have any effects that far south and west.