Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Berwick Bay]

Yes as I have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

and despite nobody has agreed with me, models are not as good at seeing erosions of ridges as we move into September when the large scale synoptics change must quicker

Is Texas or states along the northern GOM starting to make preparations? I hope so.

Very good point gator. And you know we have the "cone" or standard margin of error based on history. Well, I would like to see a more in-depth study of that margin of error. For instance, Sept storms as opposed to Aug storms. Or storms in one locale as opposed to storms in another. Could be complex, but I'd like to see a further breakdown in the stats that make-up the "margin of error". I would speculate like you, that the Sept margin of error is greater than that of Aug. I think the Dean track in mid Aug across the Carrib was much easier for the models and NHC to handle than this early Sep scenario for Felix.

[ROCK]

Yes as I have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

and despite nobody has agreed with me, models are not as good at seeing erosions of ridges as we move into September when the large scale synoptics change must quicker

Is Texas or states along the northern GOM starting to make preparations? I hope so.

Very good point gator. And you know we have the "cone" or standard margin of error based on history. Well, I would like to see a more in-depth study of that margin of error. For instance, Sept storms as opposed to Aug storms. Or storms in one locale as opposed to storms in another. Could be complex, but I'd like to see a further breakdown in the stats that make-up the "margin of error". I would speculate like you, that the Sept margin of error is greater than that of Aug. I think the Dean track in mid Aug across the Carrib was much easier for the models and NHC to handle than this early Sep scenario for Felix.

interesting BB, I would also have to agree that Sept errors are more common than Aug...

[HouTXmetro]

Based on the latest models ensembles, Brownsville needs to watch more closely.. TheGood news is that the Yucatan should keep Felix from becoming a major in the Gulf unless it slows big time over Gulf Waters.

[Portastorm]

Berwick Bay wrote: "Actually, I made no prediction at all about Dean's landfall on this board. Like lots of others I speculated on the strength of the ULL in the Gulf at that time, but I made no bones about the strength and strong probablility involved in the NHC track. As for computer models I understand they "are not based on wishful thinking". However, aren't most of the models presently showing a more shift in the track? They are. The question now is which models do we believe. I think that to "put all of our eggs in the Euro basket" is in effect wishful thinking based on the results of the last storm. I repeat the majority of models are showing the north emphasis. I'm going with them, and actually expect further north shifts in the days to come."

Portastorm says: Regarding the Euro ... its not wishful thinking at all. As Mr. Ortt has pointed out, up until the last few hours, Felix was moving south of all modeling. The Euro has been the closest to pegging the storm's track. The GFS is suggesting a similar track. The pro mets on this board have said over and over again that the MOST RELIABLE modeling has been fairly consistent while the less reliable modeling has been the most prone to directional variance.

But you know what? If Felix ends up surprising most of us with a movement closer to your ideas, then I'll be the first to tip my online hat to you!

[cycloneye]

Ok folks,are you ready for the ride of the 12z GFS.Lets roll it in.

[Berwick Bay]

Based on the latest models ensembles, Brownsville needs to watch more closely.. TheGood news is that the Yucatan should keep Felix from becoming a major in the Gulf unless it slows big time over Gulf Waters.

Actually, Houtex, this is exactly what I called for in my "prediction" for Felix yesterday. I think you can look for a track across the Yucatan, with a "big time slowdown" as you say (to very near stationary) as I said yesterday. Felix's path across the Yucatan will probably be at a somewhat slower speed (maybe 10 mph or so), but then just upon emerging into the Gulf along the western shores of the Yucatan, you might look for a stall. This will happen just at the moment when the ridge is beginning to buckle or break. So I do expect a stall with a strengthening mode again for Felix in the GOM, before making the final turn to the NNW or even N with the breaking ridge. Just my opinion.

[gatorcane]

I'm still expecting the GFS to start shifting north towards Texas at the end of the run....

lets see what is shows this time

[cycloneye]

18 hours

[x-y-no]

Huh ... 12Z GFS initializes Felix as an open 1012mb low?

I don't understand that ...

[Stratosphere747]

The GFS was already shifting a bit with the last few runs. It has been eroding the ridge and building it back in. Euro did the same with its 0z run. One reason why the shift at the end of the forecast.

[cycloneye]

Can anyone post the 500?

[Brent]

From the 11am Felix disco..

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS. IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.

It seems like they are very uncertain, moreso than during Dean.

[Stratosphere747]

500 should only be interesting once Felix nears Belize. Almost certain to keep the High until then.

[cycloneye]

36 hours

[cycloneye]

54 hours

Same song.Brushing NE coast of Honduras.

[Javlin]

Huh ... 12Z GFS initializes Felix as an open 1012mb low?

I don't understand that ...

I think I read that a Met somewhere say it can not do it as a storm maybe because of the resolution,anyway I think he was pointing out the GFS ability to prog the steering dynamics.

[canetracker]

54 h 500 mb:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_054l.gif

[cycloneye]

54 hours 500

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well it sure did a better job with Dean..regardless of the "resolution issues". Even with it's low resolution, the GFS should still be able to at least close Felix off into a <1008mb low center.

[canetracker]

60 hr 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_060l.gif

66 hr 500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_066l.gif