Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[jhamps10]

If the last 6 hrs of track direction hold then Felix will make 15N-75W which is right at the 06Z GFDL location. Both the HWRF and GFDL on their 06Z runs show a more northwesterly component of motion over the next 48 hrs.

My track has it passing 75W at 14.9N, but the big question is beyond 48 hours. GFDL and HWRF were biased way to the right with Dean, and this pattern is very similar. I'd expect a track farther to the south, closer to the ECMWF's path across the southern BoC. NHC will possibly nudge their track a bit south on the next advisory. I have final landfall near 20.7N/97.2W at 9am Friday, though it could be inland sooner if the speed doesn't drop off as much as predicted -- and farther south.

no offense, the only model near NHC's track right now is the lgem. and that is the ONLY track on the sflwmd site. if anything I expect it to move north some.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

If the last 6 hrs of track direction hold then Felix will make 15N-75W which is right at the 06Z GFDL location. Both the HWRF and GFDL on their 06Z runs show a more northwesterly component of motion over the next 48 hrs.

My track has it passing 75W at 14.9N, but the big question is beyond 48 hours. GFDL and HWRF were biased way to the right with Dean, and this pattern is very similar. I'd expect a track farther to the south, closer to the ECMWF's path across the southern BoC. NHC will possibly nudge their track a bit south on the next advisory. I have final landfall near 20.7N/97.2W at 9am Friday, though it could be inland sooner if the speed doesn't drop off as much as predicted -- and farther south.

Is there a chance that once in the BOC, Felix could move north around the western edge of the high, or get or get picked up by the trough that is forecast to drop through Texas in a few days?

[PhillyWX]

no offense, the only model near NHC's track right now is the lgem. and that is the ONLY track on the sflwmd site. if anything I expect it to move north some.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

The EURO at 0z took the storm right over NE Honduras

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7090200!!/

The EURO has been incredibly consistent with a track very close to Honduras or Belize for the last 3 days. I do not expect the NHC to change their thinking much unless it starts cruising NW.

The hurricane models were crappy in handling Dean and so far have had north bias issues with Felix as well.

[wxman57]

If the last 6 hrs of track direction hold then Felix will make 15N-75W which is right at the 06Z GFDL location. Both the HWRF and GFDL on their 06Z runs show a more northwesterly component of motion over the next 48 hrs.

My track has it passing 75W at 14.9N, but the big question is beyond 48 hours. GFDL and HWRF were biased way to the right with Dean, and this pattern is very similar. I'd expect a track farther to the south, closer to the ECMWF's path across the southern BoC. NHC will possibly nudge their track a bit south on the next advisory. I have final landfall near 20.7N/97.2W at 9am Friday, though it could be inland sooner if the speed doesn't drop off as much as predicted -- and farther south.

no offense, the only model near NHC's track right now is the BAMM. and that is the ONLY track on the swfwpd site. if anything I expect it to move north some.

Since Felix hasn't yet tracked as far north as the models have been predicting for the past 5 days, I'm not too concerned that my track is on the southern end of the model guidance. I also note that after removing the "garbage models" (BAMs), climo, extrapolated, and experimental models, it's mostly the NOGAPS and GFDL that indicate more of a WNW-NW turn across the Yucatan. GFDL has shown a strong right bias this season with Dean (southeast Louisiana?), and It's been doing the same with Felix for days. NOGAPS has had the same problem with Felix. The one model that was right-on with Dean and has been right-on with Felix for the past 5 days has been the European. The European has Felix in the extreme southern BoC next Thursday afternoon (between 18N-19N). My track is north of that, but I wouldn't be surprised if Felix continues moving south of all model guidance.

[miamicanes177]

I'll go with the whole instead of the 1. ECMWF is an outlier and I expect the NHC to shift north on the next advisory. I'll go with the CONU track on this one.

[HollynLA]

wxman57, if Felix is moving north of the NHC's forecast points right now, why do you think they will shift south? Do you expect this motion to go back to due west at some point today.

[canetracker]

To illistrate Wxman57's point with models being all over the place on Dean, load the link below, scroll down and press play:
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?4

This is the animation for Felix:
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?6

[Berwick Bay]

I'll go with the whole instead of the 1. ECMWF is an outlier and I expect the NHC to shift north on the next advisory. I'll go with the CONU track on this one.

I agree Miami. And I continue to look for a more pronounced shift north in the GOM as well. I will stay with my prediction of a more climatological track (north emphasis) and an eventual landfall somewhere between Victoria Texas and Morgan City La. I look for the last of the models to shift north (not south). The south shift I think is wishful thinking based on the last storm. With the last models shifting, I would then expect the scientific community to finally come around to a more north view of the track.

[Portastorm]

I'll go with the whole instead of the 1. ECMWF is an outlier and I expect the NHC to shift north on the next advisory. I'll go with the CONU track on this one.

I agree Miami. And I continue to look for a more pronounced shift north in the GOM as well. I will stay with my prediction of a more climatological track (north emphasis) and an eventual landfall somewhere between Victoria Texas and Morgan City La. I look for the last of the models to shift north (not south). The south shift I think is wishful thinking based on the last storm. With the last models shifting, I would then expect the scientific community to finally come around to a more north view of the track.

Berwick, no offense buddy but weren't you the one who predicted Dean would hit Corpus Christi?

Computer models are not based on "wishful thinking." Should Felix continue its current trend of north and east of the progged points then folks might take note ... but otherwise, the experts and the science say the south track is the right track.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the 11am Felix disco..

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS. IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.

[PhillyWX]

I'll go with the whole instead of the 1. ECMWF is an outlier and I expect the NHC to shift north on the next advisory. I'll go with the CONU track on this one.

I agree Miami. And I continue to look for a more pronounced shift north in the GOM as well. I will stay with my prediction of a more climatological track (north emphasis) and an eventual landfall somewhere between Victoria Texas and Morgan City La. I look for the last of the models to shift north (not south). The south shift I think is wishful thinking based on the last storm. With the last models shifting, I would then expect the scientific community to finally come around to a more north view of the track.

Wishful thinking? Because the hurricane models have stunk with the handling, intensity, and location of this storm from the get go? Feel free to think that way!

[KatDaddy]

If look at the 11AM forecast path from the TPC we could actually see a landfall in NE Mexico. However if the trough erodes the ridge more than forecast we could actually see storm position near S TX. Something we will need to watch. I am hoping WXman57 is correct with path much further S than what the TPC is showing.

[Berwick Bay]

I'll go with the whole instead of the 1. ECMWF is an outlier and I expect the NHC to shift north on the next advisory. I'll go with the CONU track on this one.

I agree Miami. And I continue to look for a more pronounced shift north in the GOM as well. I will stay with my prediction of a more climatological track (north emphasis) and an eventual landfall somewhere between Victoria Texas and Morgan City La. I look for the last of the models to shift north (not south). The south shift I think is wishful thinking based on the last storm. With the last models shifting, I would then expect the scientific community to finally come around to a more north view of the track.

Berwick, no offense buddy but weren't you the one who predicted Dean would hit Corpus Christi?

Computer models are not based on "wishful thinking." Should Felix continue its current trend of north and east of the progged points then folks might take note ... but otherwise, the experts and the science say the south track is the right track.

Actually, I made no prediction at all about Dean's landfall on this board. Like lots of others I speculated on the strength of the ULL in the Gulf at that time, but I made no bones about the strength and strong probablility involved in the NHC track. As for computer models I understand they "are not based on wishful thinking". However, aren't most of the models presently showing a more shift in the track? They are. The question now is which models do we believe. I think that to "put all of our eggs in the Euro basket" is in effect wishful thinking based on the results of the last storm. I repeat the majority of models are showing the north emphasis. I'm going with them, and actually expect further north shifts in the days to come.

[gatorcane]

Yes as I have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

and despite nobody has agreed with me, models are not as good at seeing erosions of ridges as we move into September when the large scale synoptics change must quicker

Is Texas or states along the northern GOM starting to make preparations? I hope so.

[HollynLA]

I'm still a bit confused as to why wxman57 things the track will shift south. Please chime in with your thoughts 57, I'd really like to know your thinking on this.

[ROCK]

Yes as I have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

and despite nobody has agreed with me, models are not as good at seeing erosions of ridges as we move into September when the large scale synoptics change must quicker

Is Texas or states along the northern GOM starting to make preparations? I hope so.

nope....after Dean I used all my gas, sold my plywood, and ebayed my generator.....

[gatorcane]

and from the last NHC discussion it is very clear the NHC is nowhere near as certain with track of Felix as they are with Dean and I read it as folks in the NW and Northern GOM should really pay attention to this situation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

According to Windstorm99's image in the other Felix thread (on page 30), the storm seems to currently be on the northern edge of the model guidance right now.

[ROCK]

I'm still a bit confused as to why wxman57 things the track will shift south. Please chime in with your thoughts 57, I'd really like to know your thinking on this.

Holly, after the trof moves through they are expecting the high to build back in....basically he is saying the trof will not have much of an affect in the track.


Personally, I take the Euro with a grain of salt. It has been wrong before. Few nights ago Felix was going into Nicaragua. If I recall it also had Charley in 04 missing the trof and moving into NGOM. So again one model I do not hug....Rather I go with the consensus...

[Berwick Bay]

With each passing hour there is greater uncertainty about the latter part of the forecast track and the strength of the ridge in the Gulf. I am becoming more confident in my forecast of yesterday calling for a strong climo oriented track taking the storm across the Yucatan (not central America) and into the southern GOM. As I said yesterday, I look for a weakening ridge there and after a stall or period of very slow motion, then a general track between NW and N. Landfall somewhere between Victoria Texas, and Morgan City La. I think you will see the scientific community come around to this thinking very shortly.