Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN,they have to move the floater.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, i didnt really expect Felix to blow up this fast it is really looking very healthy, and it looks like we will have a CAT 4 on our hands soon.

[Zardoz]

Wow, i didnt really expect Felix to blow up this fast it is really looking very healthy, and it looks like we will have a CAT 4 on our hands soon.

Really makes you wonder why some of the early intensity forecasts were so conservative. What were they based upon?

[HURAKAN]

476
WTNT21 KNHC 021432
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1500 UTC SUN SEP 02 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 70.1W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 70.1W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 69.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W...GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 70.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Extremeweatherguy]

For the day 5 position..the new track is about 1-degree further north it latitude than the 5am track was.

[Evil Jeremy]

105 MPH? You have got to be kidding me!

[HollynLA]

Looks like a bit of a northern shift but I do expect it to shift more north today since the storm is heading in more of a WNW direction and looks like it will hit 15N 75W which is north of the newest track by the NHC.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The extrapolated track takes a category 2+ possibly
category 3 towards the texas/mexico border or
just south of there. Could cause problems for
texas. The trough that is progged to develop
over texas by tuesday will likely steer
this northward pretty close to texas.

[HURAKAN]

382
WTNT41 KNHC 021435
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

FELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD
STRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS
BECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS
SHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL
PASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE
PENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE
INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
TO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.
THEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...
VERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN
VERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16. THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODEL
PREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE
HURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS. THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE
THE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD
TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THIS ADVISORY
PACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND
120-HOUR FORECASTS. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS. IN ANY EVENT IT
SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS
RANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE
SHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.

THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN
EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.2N 70.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 72.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.4N 76.3W 110 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 15.1N 79.5W 120 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.8N 82.7W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 87.0W 120 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 19.0N 90.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.0N 94.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[TampaFl]

Deleted.

[ROCK]

For the day 5 position..the new track is about 1-degree further north it latitude than the 5am track was.

pretty good agreement for the next 24 hrs then you notice they really expand the cone to take into account a weaker ridge.....if its going to make a move, it will need to be between now and Tuesday.

[jhamps10]

From CImSS: Felix is north of forcasted track & on the right side of the models:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/TRANSWM.PNG

all i see is a black screen on that page.

[windstorm99]

[CrazyC83]

With the pinhole eye, my estimate for the current intensity is 105 kt/967mb. I think they missed the core.

[TampaFl]

Thanks windstorm99, that was what I was trying to post. The visible is even more impressive. How did you get it to post?

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow! Felix looks to currently be north of most of the models too (if I am reading WINDSTORM99's image correctly). That is very interesting.

[gatorcane]

Yes as I have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

and despite nobody has agreed with me, models are not as good at seeing erosions of ridges as we move into September when the large scale synoptics change must quicker

Is Texas or states along the northern GOM starting to make preparations? I hope so.

[CrazyC83]

Yes as I have been saying for several days now a turn to the NW or N at the end of the forecast period seems likely given that persistent ridging is less likely now then in mid August........

and despite nobody has agreed with me, models are not as good at seeing erosions of ridges as we move into September when the large scale synoptics change must quicker

Is Texas or states along the northern GOM starting to make preparations? I hope so.

I agree the NW GOM could be hit by this in the end. The projected path is still very reminiscent of Edith.

[gatorcane]

Look at the steering currents....unchanged since yesterday with the big High to the north weakening some...and a flow right into the GOM.

The key to the NHC forecast is that they expect that high above Felix to build westward....

and a new high to build over the GOM. So far that is not happening folks.

[jhamps10]

from the looks of windstorm's image, felix is right now going north of ALL the models. I agree gatorcane, NW gom really should keep an eye on this, I for one am feeling a bit better for Honduras and Belize right now, and more concerned about the Yucatan part of mexico.