Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well, while there is a slim chance of Felix affecting the US, and two global models sort of suggest that, the two most reliable globals and the GFDL don't, nor do the pro mets. Always prudent to watch, but in my unprofessional opinion, pulling numbers from my, um, ear, I'd say 30% into Nicaragua/Honduras not to re-emerge, 30% Honduras to Belize not to emerge, 30% Belize or Mexico/Yucatan to emerge into BOC for second Mexican landfall far enough South to not cause significant sensible weather in Texas, and 10% chance for a Yucatan hit into Gulf or Yucatan Channel hit far enough North to effect Texas or Louisiana.

Again, in 27 hours, it has gained 2/3rds of a degree of latitude, and if it is down near Nicaragua, it will probably never even 'sense' the Texas trough well to its North. So the less latitude it gains, the less latitude it is likely to gain.

[tailgater]

Center starting to show up very clearly on radar


as it gets closer http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

bump

[Scorpion]

3 mb fall in the last hour.. not too shabby

[Scorpion]

Latest recon supports 95 mph surface winds

[wxmann_91]

Latest recon supports 95 mph surface winds

The warm cloud tops suggests the reduction factor may be less. Suspect that NHC will probably go with 75-80 kt for the 5 AM advisory unless recon finds stronger FL winds.

[Scorpion]

Well SFMR estimated 93 kt surface winds

[RL3AO]

80 kt right now if I were making an advisory.

[attallaman]

So would it be safe to say that no part of Texas will be threatened by Felix?

[RL3AO]

So would it be safe to say that no part of Texas will be threatened by Felix?

It is not safe to say that.

[attallaman]

So would it be safe to say that no part of Texas will be threatened by Felix?

It is not safe to say that.

Thanks.

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
330 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007

CORRECTED HEADER

FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA RECENTLY RECEIVED FROM THE UNITED
STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE FELIX HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH...160
KM/HR...MAKING FELIX A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[dwsqos2]

The high SFMR values were all marked as suspect. Note the "03" or "05" in the final column. However, the lower-layer averages (MBL, DLM, WL150) on the recently posted sonde could be used to justify an intensity ranging from 80 to around 88 knots. I suppose that I should qualify this with the statement "if I remember correctly."

EDIT: Hideous grammar, and apparently I can't type rapidly enough.

[Scorpion]

Wow... looks like that they took the 93 kt reading seriously

[wxmann_91]

Well SFMR estimated 93 kt surface winds

Okay then, my bad.

Someone please tell me where the SFMR wind estimates are shown.

And also, this has to be the worst Cat 2 I've ever seen. Felix looks to be fighting some dry air entrainment and some light westerly shear.

[Scorpion]

By the way... looks like it took just over 24 hours for Felix to get from TD status to 100 mph. I wonder if this is a record.

[Scorpion]

Well SFMR estimated 93 kt surface winds

Okay then, my bad.

Someone please tell me where the SFMR wind estimates are shown.

And also, this has to be the worst Cat 2 I've ever seen. Felix looks to be fighting some dry air entrainment and some light westerly shear.

If Felix can get to Cat 2 in this environment I hate to see what it can do away from South America in much higher TCHP

[southerngale]

By the way... looks like it took just over 24 hours for Felix to get from TD status to 100 mph. I wonder if this is a record.

Just over?

Just under... it was still a TD just 24 hours ago. Wow.

[Normandy]

Be careful judging a storm based on sat presentation....

Especially when radar is available.
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp


Fairly healthy storm and on its way to becoming a major.

[Scorpion]

Nice, tight eyewall there. Its a good thing the islands aren't getting the middle of this.

[Brent]

Be careful judging a storm based on sat presentation....

Especially when radar is available.
http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp


Fairly healthy storm and on its way to becoming a major.

Nice eye.