Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[jhamps10]

Hurricane Watch for the Netherland Antilles(no clue why it's not a warning)



Track looks a little more north.

yeah it is north, and a good bit north at that. 5 PM had it hitting in Belize, and this has it hitting somewhere near the same spot as dean did.

[gatorcane]

as I argued since this storm formed and those pegged it straight into Nicaragua...the chances of another westrunner like Dean in September are not as good. Ridges break down easier than in August. In addition some of the models were not as sold on a strong ridge in the GOM although the Euro did favor this ridge.

Now lets just see if that ridge north of it truly follows it west and this great ridge over the GOM really holds it ground.

I tend to think a NW bend at the end of the 5 day cone is more likely. The Western and Northern GOM should closely monitor the progress of Felix.

Steering currents:

[jhamps10]

that's some good evidence for the GOM crowd to keep watching this extra closely.

meanwhile I am very concerned for the yucatan, hopefully it hits in an very unpopulated area.

[CrazyC83]

This really looks like a carbon copy of Edith in 1971...

[cycloneye]

Will Felix take the track that Edith took?

[gatorcane]

that's some good evidence for the GOM crowd to keep watching this extra closely.

meanwhile I am very concerned for the yucatan, hopefully it hits in an very unpopulated area.

That ridge to the north of Felix *should* follow it west, a high *should* build over the GOM...and Felix *should* keep heading west over the next 5 days...

Too many shoulds for me and models are not as much in agreement now then DEan.

[GeneratorPower]

Bevin is doing this package. Should be good.

[tomboudreau]

If this thing comes into the Yucatan as only a 3...wouldn't it be lower then a Cat 1 when it re-enters into the BOC? Look at what the Yucatan did to Dean just a couple of weeks ago. It went from a Cat 5 storm to a Cat 1. Wouldn't there be a good chance for the Yucatan to weaken Felix to a tropical storm?

[gatorcane]

Another thing I am noticing is that monster High above Felix does not seem to be moving in tandem with Felix. Right now Felix is being steering convicingly West because it is under the High....but once it gets into the Western Caribbean how much NW will it want to go? Lots of questions marks here for sure.

Here is the loop showing the high:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

Track has shifted north at the end of the run as of 11pm...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[cycloneye]

[caribepr]

If this thing comes into the Yucatan as only a 3... Wouldn't there be a good chance for the Yucatan to weaken Felix to a tropical storm?

"Only a 3" ?? The Yucatan is not just a land mass, helpfully there to weaken storms...people do happen to live there, as well as many other spots that have ALREADY and tonight/tomorrow will be impacted by Felix.

I've not said much about some of the obvious, glaring stunning leaps over inhabited lands this year as people hurry to worry over the US mainland...but this one was my camel straw...for now.

And please, I'm not asking for 50, or any, posts about people who "care about the islands". We already know who you are, trust me!

[Sanibel]

This is trouble for Belize if the track stays south like it is. They are starting to realize it on the Belize message board. Storm still looks south to me, but it could be because of the geography and angle of the South American coastline.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

caribepr, I don't hate the islands and wish you all luck. But I will more or less watch and forecast storms it is something I enjoy doing.

[Brent]

FELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME. AFTER
72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS.
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION
TOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE
A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS
CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO
THE SOUTH OF THAT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH
72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.

[gatorcane]

The NOGAPs, UKM, and GFDN are basically the models that want to put this thing in the Southern GOM and is the reason why the cone extends into the Southern GOM on the right.

I wonder why they weaken the ridge more. What could they be seeing that the GFS, Euro, and GFDL are not?

[Stratosphere747]

The NOGAPs, UKM, and GFDN are basically the models that want to put this thing in the Southern GOM.

I wonder why they weaken the ridge more. What could they be seeing that the GFS, Euro, and GFDL are not?

Trough in Texas breaking it down.

[GeneratorPower]

Next thing to watch is the 00z GFS coming out shortly.

[gatorcane]

Surpised nobody is talking about the feature that is about ready to cross through the FL straits into the GOM. It's a ULL

What could that ULL do to that ridge?

You can see it spinning here:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Stratosphere747]

GFS 0z run will look the same. Should take another few runs before it shows any breakdown in the High.