Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[mattpetre]

One things though... Honduras needs to start preparing now for a repeat of Fifi and Mitch. Even if this follows the NHC track and moves just north of Honduras... that's what Fifi did

Totally agree with that assesment Derek, just don't like when people start talking about this having no chance at all of being a threat to the CONUS. I know it may seem slim now, but if things change with the ridge, then we'll all feel pretty dumb for at least not admitting to the chance.

[Derek Ortt]

to be 100% honest, if this hits the USA is of no concern to me right now.

I am far more worried about what may happen to Honduras. I am afraid that during the next 3 days, we may be watching one of those historic storms. A strike on Nicaragua would be far less destructive (though still not that good)

[RL3AO]

Yep. This could be the major disaster for 2007 for the Western Hemisphere.

[mattpetre]

to be 100% honest, if this hits the USA is of no concern to me right now.

I am far more worried about what may happen to Honduras. I am afraid that during the next 3 days, we may be watching one of those historic storms. A strike on Nicaragua would be far less destructive (though still not that good)

I understand that... I went to Honduras in 1998 for a mission trip to help with some of the cleanup and getting medicine to people in remote areas. The landslides were devastating to say the least. It's not a country that can take a big storm well.

[PhillyWX]

to be 100% honest, if this hits the USA is of no concern to me right now.

I am far more worried about what may happen to Honduras. I am afraid that during the next 3 days, we may be watching one of those historic storms. A strike on Nicaragua would be far less destructive (though still not that good)

Honduras isn't even back to 1998 levels economically after Mitch went through there. This is the last thing they would want or need to deal with this year.

[Janie2006]

I think it's very premature to say this ridge is locked down. With Dean there were some variables in place that just didn't happen to come into play, but there is no certainty that they won't have some effect this time. If the Low coming out of Canada ends up being a bit stronger than expected or even if the storm itself happens to just jog a bit more NW than expected everything could change. One of these days this year we will get bitten depending on this ridge to protect the CONUS. I'm not saying it's likely, but I live in Houston and I didn't let my guard down till dean was slamming into the Yucatan and I won't let my guard down on this one either till the thing is less than 200 miles off the coast of Mexico or Belize... We would be foolish to think this forecast is a foregone conclusion already.

There are few foregone conclusions in forecasting, especially in tropical meteorology. That being said, I am not overly concerned about the CONUS at this point in time. It's not a question of dependence, but rather a sober assesment of the evolving synoptic pattern. Conditions can and often do change. No serious meteorologist considers this situation a "done deal". However, at the present time the most serious threat appears to be much further south than the CONUS, so it is in this region that many forecasters are focusing their efforts.

[Nimbus]

Look on the bright side, Felix is moving much faster than Mitch and the steering currents are strong. There is a pretty good chance that the Honduras could escape with far less damage this time. They might only experience tropical storm force winds and a few hours of rain if they get lucky.

[Derek Ortt]

it should slow some

Fifi also didn't exactly move slowly either and was much weaker than this one is

Again, the models are hopelessly wrong on this one... this has yet to even clear Aruba and if it stays on its current track, will just run over Curacao in about 6-8 more hours, when the models had this 50-100 miles north

[Brent]

it should slow some

Fifi also didn't exactly move slowly either and was much weaker than this one is

Again, the models are hopelessly wrong on this one... this has yet to even clear Aruba and if it stays on its current track, will just run over Curacao in about 6-8 more hours, when the models had this 50-100 miles north

and those islands are under TS Warnings...

[RL3AO]

and those islands are under TS Warnings...

For some reason.

[PhillyWX]

it should slow some

Fifi also didn't exactly move slowly either and was much weaker than this one is

Again, the models are hopelessly wrong on this one... this has yet to even clear Aruba and if it stays on its current track, will just run over Curacao in about 6-8 more hours, when the models had this 50-100 miles north

It looks like it'll split between the models and the ABC islands...they'll get hit hard but won't get the core...but not by much.

Those islands don't deal with hurricanes often though...Ivan missed them to the north but not by much either but other than that and Joan in 88 I can't remember the last cane to hit them.

[Stratosphere747]

Disco should shed some light. Have a feeling they may mention that the Euro may have been breaking down the ridge in the long range.

[gatorcane]

to be 100% honest, if this hits the USA is of no concern to me right now.

I am far more worried about what may happen to Honduras. I am afraid that during the next 3 days, we may be watching one of those historic storms. A strike on Nicaragua would be far less destructive (though still not that good)

Derek you must have some concern given that several trusted global models want to turn it NW into the NW GOM.....

Still don't buy a westrunner into Nicaragua at all...

[GeneratorPower]

I forgot what time the 00z GFS starts rolling in. Can somebody help me?

[skysummit]

I forgot what time the 00z GFS starts rolling in. Can somebody help me?

In about 9 minutes.

[GeneratorPower]

Rolling in now.

[cycloneye]

24 hours

[cycloneye]

42 hours

[oyster_reef]

42 hours

open wave? what?

[cycloneye]

60 hours

Eh!,a tad more north of the Honduras coast than in past runs.